Free Daily Post: 26/05/18 (Guest Tips)

As with last Saturday I will defer to SP2A’s Elite Tips today, which as luck would have it ties in with Ian offering another special 3 month trial for you good readers. If you missed my email yesterday you can read it HERE>>> 

If you want to test run the best all round tipping service I have seen of it’s kind, for a full three months with a money back guarantee, then it’s worth a read. I’m not sure how many more trials we will do like this as at some point Ian may close the doors full stop, and be happy with the number of subscribers. This offer will close on Tuesday and you can find out more HERE>>>

No worries if that doesn’t interest you, hopefully you enjoy the quality free musings below. The Elite Tips found a decent 11/2 winner last Saturday when posted and very nearly the 20/1 winner of the big race. Agonising. Let’s see how they go this week…

Over to SP2A…

Good Morning

We had a fine return last Saturday with a nice winner and a 20/1 SP runner up beaten literally on the line.

I looked at 3 races today and have chosen the 2.30 at Goodwood and the 2.50 at Haydock. The Race I left out; the 3.40 at York will be covered by SP2A Daily Tips.

There was a fair amount of rain at Goodwood early yesterday but it dried out, looks proper Good Going. At Haydock, it rained all day on and off; they finally said it was Good to Soft, I think and have analysed on the basis it wont be any better than Good to Soft and there may indeed be some “soft” places.

 

Tipster Course Time Horse Stake Notes
Elite Good 2.30 3 Society Power @ 9/2 1 win* 1-4
Elite Good 2.30 6 Fenaan @ 8/1 ½ e/w 1-4
Elite Good 2.30 11 Neola @ 20/1 ½ e/w 1-4
Elite Hay 2.50 3 Qaysar @ 5/1 1 win* Sky 5th
Elite Hay 2.50 2 Finniston Farm @10/1 ½ e/w Sky 5th
Elite Hay 2.50 10 Crownthorpe @ 16/1 ½ e/w Sky 5th
Mention Hay 2.50 6 Book Of Dreams @ 25/1 ¼ e/w Sky 5th

 

Here is my analysis.

GOODWOOD 2.30

A 7 Furlong race where these 3 year olds will be tested for both tactical speed and some stamina. The draw here is always a factor and if you are drawn low and can race prominently a big advantage; if drawn high, often wise to race a bit wider rather than ending up behind a wall of horses on the rail. I have looked at those at the head of the market and believe that SOCIETY POWER is by far the most likely to justify odds from a perfect pitch in Stall 2. It will handle any Going and at 4/1 – 9/2 looks very solid. If you want to play it very conservatively have an each way banker with Odds to 4th, but logic says a WIN bet. 

I am not sure at all about Emeraaty; take the sales price (best part of £2.5m) away and I am not sure it has delivered. Of more interest from the Yard for me is FENNANN who has a perfect stall draw in 1; looks a scopey and progressive horse and I think if it can make a decent start and be up with the pace could run very well at decent each way odds around 8/1. I am not sure about the girl on Richenza, Bambino Lola could improve and be a danger and but for a 245 day break I would be very interested in GRAND KOONTA but will look deeper in to the race for my final singles selection. At 20/1 + and with a nice bit of Course form NEOLA catches my eye from an in form yard. It ran pretty well at Chester and could be a dark horse off a nice mark who could run in to a place at least and seems to like these “quirky tracks”.

I will have SOCIETY POWER; FENNAAN and NEOLA as my singles and if you want one to add to a fun Tricast Perm add in GRAND KOONTA.

 

HAYDOCK 2.50 

This is a very competitive 1 Mile Handicap and the Going could be a determining factor as many “fancied” have run well over 7 Furlongs on better ground, loo like potential milers but have yet to actually prove themselves at the trip on softer Going, in to this category I firmly put CRACK ON CRACK + COMPLETION and for that reason alone, I will take them on.

At the head of the market I think that QAYSAR is very solid; trip should be fine, has won on Good to Soft and looks the most likely to dominate. At 5/1 a solid win bet and again take the each way “banker” at you discretion. SKYBET go odds to 5th, all others to 4th. I also like the look of FINNISTON FARM, steps back in trip and that bit of extra stamina wont harm it here; also back slightly in Class and connections always to be feared here. I think it is very competitively priced at 10/1.

I always want a couple of “streetwise” types in these conditions, proven in soft, fine at the trip, what they lack in high end class they make up for in ability to battle. CROWNTHORPE comes from a Yard you always want “on your side” on a Saturday and the softer the better for this one and if the Going is seen to be worse than advertised later on, the 16/1 will soon go so grab some early. I also have a hunch that BOOK OF DREAMS from the Johnston yard could run a typical stable race, pop out, run from the front; set the fractions, and prove darned difficult to pass. We have seen it so many times and for that reason the 25/1 looked a decent “mention” poke for 50% the odds.

Those 4 would look to me too to constitute a nice Tricast Perm if you want a bit of fun.

——–

That’s all from me for today and for MAY. We started with the 2000 / 1000 Guineas and some stellar tip/mentions and have maintained momentum.

I will be back with OAKS TIPS and DERBY TIPS at EPSOM next Friday and Saturday (Friday tips at around 8am on Friday morning and Saturday tips at around 5pm n Friday afternoon. I can’t promise 66/1 winners and 50/1 places to SP in those races but over the years many big priced horses have nicked places and the odd win!

Back next FRIDAY…

Michael…

**

Don’t forget, you can find out more about the latest exclusive 3 month trial, HERE>>>

Have a great day, and GL with any bets, 

Josh 

About This Author

Hi, I'm Josh and thanks for reading my blog, Racing To Profit. Hopefully you like what you find. This is a place for horse racing fans of all levels and ability, bettors and non bettors. Here I, and fellow readers, share our opinions on horses and information that may help you find your own winners. Do say hi, we are a friendly bunch... and if you could use the 'share buttons' above that would also be appreciated :)

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  • A fair few of our Members enjoyed some slightly different betting success with our FREE Speedway GP tips 2 weeks ago and I had planned to put them on here then but time caught me out.

    With Josh’s permission, here is our analysis and tips for Round 2 in Prague tomorrow.

    I had a fairly unspectacular career as a rider from 1979-84 at second team level and my co-conspirator in analysis and tips is David; a lifelong and very knowledgeable fan who attends many top meetings and GP’s

    Here is the specific analysis for tomorrow with clear tips and staking/odds at the top-:

    http://www.sp2a.co.uk/blogs/SP2A%20Speedway%20GP/Speedway-GP-Round-2-PRAGUE-Saturday-26th-May

    If you want to find out more about the sport and our Sponsorships and also a Full Rundown on all the Riders and Venues in the 2018 Speedway GP series; have a look at the Speedway Page and look down at the various Blog entries about the Overall 10 Rounds in specific blogs.

    All Content for 2018 GP Season will be free-:

    http://www.sp2a.co.uk/services/SP2A%20Speedway%20GP

    Ian@SP2A 4 weeks ago Reply


  • Below is the 4 races from the ITV races today using my trends/draw/pace technique which is proving to be rather consistent (watch today will be a wash out now….). Top 3 rated below along with my own thoughts on the top 3 plus tips from me.

    13:55 Goodwood – Festival Stakes
    1st – Spark Plug -> 60.98 (3/1 gen)
    2nd – Billesdon Bess -> 50.20 (11/1 gen)
    3rd – First Sitting -> 38.53 (11/2 gen)
    Notes: Top 3 contains the top 2 of the same race last year ( First Sitting 1st and Spark Plug 2nd). Fav tend to do well in this race with winning just over 35% of the time. For me, from the top 3 Spark plug catches my eye. He is drawn in stall 1 which runs particularly well with today’s race setup. I reckon he can go one better this year and claim first. Some bookies are offering 3 places in this race so if you take the 3 places I would add Billesdon Bess, who is the only one to hit all my trends, as an EW bet but for me I will play in the 2 place market. Tips -> 1pt WIN Spark Plug.

    14:50 Haydock – Bowl Stakes
    1st – Crownthorpe -> 229.77 (16/1 gen)
    2nd – Ulshaw Bridge -> 224.25 (28/1 gen)
    3rd – Crack on Crack On -> 170.84 (5/1 gen)
    Notes: None hit all trends, that award goes to Simpson (50/1) who lies in 6th some 70pts off the top three for me. Fahey has a good record here and his runner today is Crownthrope. Out of the top three, Crownthorpe is the most interesting. He probably would have preferred to be in the lower half of the draw but he has the capability to make up for the draw in 9. He likes a bit of give in the ground so that could play to his advantage today. Tips -> 1pt EW on Crownthorpe.

    15:25 Haydock – Sandy Lane Stakes
    1st – Sands of Mali -> 72.94 (7/2 gen)
    2nd – Invincible Army -> 53.85 (4/1 gen)
    3rd – James Garfield -> 43.00 (5/1 gen)
    Notes: Sands of Mali and Invincible hit all trends for me. Average SP of the winner is 10/3 so all the top three are in that range. Stall 8 and 9 have proven to be winning stalls in this race with just over 40% of the winners coming from there, James Garfield runs from stall 8 today. We could say the higher the draw the better it is suited today, JG and Invincible Army are drawn in the two highest draws here. Tips -> James Garfield and Invincible Army 1pt WIN each.

    16:00 Haydock – Temple Stakes
    1st – Mrs Gallagher -> 101.20 (25/1 gen)
    2nd – Encore D’Or -> 91.35 (80/1 gen)
    3rd – Havana Grey -> 82.35 (18/1 gen)
    Notes: On paper this race really is all about Battash, if he finds the form of last season he runs away with this race but its his first race back and the trends don’t point to him winning so plenty value to be had. None of the top three hit all trends ( that award goes to Mabs Cross (10/1)) but the most likely seems to be Havana Grey and Mrs Gallagher. In the last 10 years it definitely pays to be 6 or lower in the draw with 60% of winners coming from them. Mrs Gallagher and Havana Grey are 4 and 6 in the draw. I think some careful staking here is advised, due to Battash mentioned above. Tips -> 0.5 pt EW on Havana Grey and Mrs Gallagher.

    That’s all for today, hopefully get some winners today. Apologies if odds have changed, these odds were as of 11am.

    Good luck with your betting!

    Chris M 4 weeks ago Reply


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