Members Daily Post: 25/05/18 (complete)

NOTES x2 (+ write ups), Section 1 (comp),

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Haydock

1.50 – 

Mac Opolo (all hncps 4yo+, all hncps, micro TJC) 14 ES+ H3 9/4 S3A  2nd 

Archipeligo (all hncps) H3 I3 9/2 UP

 

Goodwood

4.55 – I’m A Believer (m going IF Good to Firm, tbc morning)  I3 G3

 

Bath

2.10 – 

Upavon (4yo+) H3 I1 G3 11/2 S2 S4 S5 UP

Secretfact (m dist) w1 G3 13/2 UP

4.30- Amberine (m dist) 4/1 UP

5.05 – Silverrica (m dist) 14/1 WON 14/1>20/1 

 

Pontefract

6.30 – 

Totally Magic (all hncps) 25/1 UP

Parole (m going) I3 25/1 UP

7.00 – Icefall (m TJC/going) 5/1 UP

8.00 – 

Foxtrot Knight (m dist) w2 I3 13/2  2nd 4/1 

Grandad’s World (m class/runs) 11/1 UP

 

JUMPS

Worcester

6.45 – 

I’d Like The Option (hncp chase) 8/1 UP

Mont Royale (hncp chase) I1 14/1 S2 S5 UP

Flying Eagle (hncp chase) I3 12/1 S2 S5 UP

8.15 – 

Anndarrow (all hncps) ES+ H1 I1 4/1 S3A S5 

Tir Dubh (hncp hurdle) 10/1 S2 UP

Coisa Blanc (m class) (hncp h debut) 11/1  S2 3rd 14/1 

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30– 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +– Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end6th May 2018)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 6th May 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’ ‘aka Tips’(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 9/103,32p, +8.5)  (1 point win bets) (Festival Tips 2018: +101.5)

NOTES

6.30 Ponte- Parole – 1 point win – 25/1 (gen) UP

8.00 Ponte- Foxtrot Knight – 1 point win – 8/1 (bet365/LadB) 7/1 (gen)  2nd 

That will be all for tips today. 

Parole… I may be dragged in front of the board and refused day release come around 6.40 but at 25/1 I couldn’t resist a nibble at this lightly raced handicapper. He is 2/9 in handicaps and given how he has run in higher classes at the back end of last season, I’d like to think there will be more to come at some point this season. I’d be surprised if he didn’t go close to winning at some point on his next three starts, hopefully today. The horse isn’t really doing anything different from his last run bar the fact that given the yard he was no doubt in desperate need of the run, and ran ok up to around 2f from home. There is also a jockey switch and RR gets on well with him (1/4,2p) and her claim will help. Part of my thinking is that Pontefract are due some rain- I am guessing as to how much and whether it will affect the going. He won’t be going close if this remains on the fast side, but will enjoy any softening of the ground, which could be an inconvenience for plenty in here. They are meant to get 5-7mm according to forecasts and BBC Weather suggests there is rain in the area all day. He is drawn out in the next county but it isn’t impossible from out wide and there isn’t loads of pace in this- RR could be aggressive and try and get out/across, although plenty on her inside may want prominent positions. She may have to take her medicine and the start could be crucial. If the ground does deteriorate there is a chance of some NRs ,with not too much R4 damage, but that is guessing really. In any case, with 25/1 shots there are usually a few negatives to overcome but I couldn’t resist at that price. I think he may want further than this but if the rain gets in, this trip, up this hill, will take some getting and he should be staying on. It could be he also needs this run, but again, I come back to price. He is an interesting outsider, who could do anything in this race. But he needs rain. 

Foxtrot Knight… my instinct said to go with this one and that 8s//7s was a tad insulting. He is a sprinter in form, which is always a positive and he hasn’t run a bad race in his last three. A repeat of recent runs would put him in the mix here. Last July he was finishing a head second off OR 78 in a C3, and has some creditable efforts at that level, so I’m not perturbed by his current mark or the move up to C4. He has the ability to take this. He is a prominent racer who is well drawn and has course form, his jockey is in form and riding well. He also won’t mind what the ground does, and again rain would be good for him more so as it may blunt some of the oppo/pose them new questions. The pace is interesting here…there are 4/5 of them who can really motor and get on with it. This one doesn’t have to lead… I hope Elliot may actually just sit off them slightly and let 3/4 of them cut each others throats, picking up the pieces late and swooping past. I just thought I’d get a run for my money and this price was a few points too big. Clearly he isn’t unexposed and is open to attack from anything in that bracket- the O’Meara horse seems well fancied but he has to prove it on turf and has fitness to prove (not a problem from the yard if they want them fit). He shouldn’t get an easy lead without doing too much and softening ground would pose a question, and take more effort at the business end. But, if he repeated some of his AW exploits on turf, he would be thrown in here. The market suggests they expect a big run. 

Danger horse.. I actually think Henley is the value danger horse at 10s, and I have had some change on him just in case, he looks interesting enough at a price also. Hopefully Foxtrot can notch one more win on the board, he should be thereabouts and will appreciate the return to Pontefract. 

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Elsewhere… there are some interesting runners at Worcester in the quals above but I am properly guessing as to the ground – it is meant to rain all day apparently and it ‘could’ be soft come race time. Of course they may not get what is forecast and it remains good. And I think you’d be expecting ok runs from most of those above, certainly in the 8.15, because of decent ground- that would be the hope for the Jonjo horse (Coisa Blanc) ... he is 3/10,3p here with handicap debutants in the last 5 years which is interesting enough given his overall handicap debut record…here and Huntingdon would be up there on his target tracks it seems for such types. He ‘only’ moves up in trip by 2f but down into a C5 handicap hurdle after a break. He hasn’t shown anything which may be no surprise. He could just improve because he has strengthened up and they have trained him hard now, and he is thrown in, ground doesn’t matter. Or he actually needs good. I was a bit on the fence but at 12s I may throw something at him in case. All three in that race could run well. 

Mike (sterling effort as always, much appreciated) has highlighted some recent Notes tips below in the comments. Were I more switched on we may have backed Bahuta Atcha LTO at 25/1, having been tipped the run before…I’m not sure I’d have tipped him as he did nothing on reappearance , but should have flagged him for change at that price, second run after a break, into a 3YO only handicap and change of jockey. One that got away. He runs today in the 2.55 Haydock at 10/1, and he may be worth some interest today… he does move up in class and up in trip.. which pose new questions for him. I don’t think he will mind if this goes on the soft side and he runs as if he may relish 6f now…I wouldn’t be shocked if he went close again but he does have questions to answer. I don’t like wading in with my tipping point with horses that have to both prove stamina and that are up to this class, in a race full of more lightly races horses, but his price may allow a dabble. I’ll leave you to have a look and make up your own mind. It could be a step to far for him, we shall see, and no doubt I/we have missed the boat after his win LTO.

The other one flagged by Mike is 5/4, but appears to be the only horse in form in the race and has the excellent Murphy on board. He will no doubt bolt up, and it will be a shame he didn’t do that when tipped the last day when 9s, and going very close. 

So, two tips, and three horses with the dreaded italics/underlined, do with those as you please 🙂 

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The Sandown ‘through the card’ did ok… two winners from all those in bold, at 5s SP… a -2 points if you backed all those in bold at SP, profit if you got Chief of Chiefs at 8s+ (also tipped by SP2A in the morning), and indeed profit if you just backed the three that I thought looked most intriguing, CoC being the winner. He had some very good form in some very good C2s last season, had valid excuses the last twice, yard going well, and was always going to do that in a C3 IF repeating those C2 efforts. Nice horse. I actually flagged the 1-2-3 in that race, but sadly didn’t do the combo tricast, I never do! The second maybe should have won if his starting position for his burst was closer to the pace. A decent race and those front 3 have more wins in them. As expected a few favs dotted up. 

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3.Micro System Test Zone

None.

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

23 Responses

  1. Sir Titan Goodwood Friday 14:35 1pt e/w I managed to get 16/1-20/1 but 25/1 is available in one spot

      1. Awesome Nick, thanks. 22/1 for me here, and it was also put in my S2A and another of my tipsters. Fair to say it’s been a good start to the day.

    1. Nice one Nick. I got 22/1 last night and went in again at 10/1 at lunch time when someone else put it up. I owe you a drink. Cheers.

    2. I suppose that’s not a bad way to sign off for the weekend although might have a glance at the airport tonight. Otherwise will probably be back Tuesday evening.

    3. Not bad I suppose! 🙂 Well done. And enjoy your mini break, I’ll try and up my game while you’re away!

  2. Tom Dascombe misfired on his previous visit to Haydock,but returns tomorrow for another crack
    Marco Polo in the 1.50 is not much value at 3/1,but there is a bit of value in Ginbar 8/1BV,No I’m Easy 15/2BV and Admiral Spice 11/1BV,Small stakes patent or lucky 15 may be the way to go

    1. Dascombe is not in great form but that should make the prices of his runners better than if he were.
      Gary Moore is in form with this handicappers and should be worth a look where they run in the next few days.

  3. Josh have you sent the sp2a trial emails out yet? Have I missed the boat this time or have you just not got round to it yet. Thanks

    1. Hi Chris, I did email the ‘waiting list’ list yesterday, link below plenty of space left on this one still, payment button at top of page or details for bank transfer if preferred…. I’ll be emailing general list later, probably for the last ever time as I think all my exciting contacts that may have wanted to take a trial, will have done by now.

      http://www.sp2a.co.uk/services/RACING%20TO%20PROFIT%20Affinity

      Josh

  4. Josh

    LTO Losers
    Bahuta Atcha Hay 2.55…9/1
    26/4 Bev Notes
    Timeform Posted career-best when winning a 10-runner handicap at Beverley (5f, good to firm) 18 days ago. 5 lb rise fair and should go well again

    Barrsbrook Bath 5.35…short price
    24/4 Brighton Notes
    Timeform Lightly-raced maiden on Flat. Posted the best effort yet when second of 12 in a handicap at Brighton (8f, good to soft) 31 days ago. Only 1 lb higher here and is a leading contender.

    Mike

  5. Todays shots.
    14:35 Goodwood
    PORTLEDGE 11/2 gen
    When James Bethall comes all the way down from Yorkshire to the southern counties, this should be noted.
    This four year old looks to be progressing along the right lines and with with Jamie Spencer in the plate, he can work the oracle with a well timed challenge to be taking the lead for success.
    SEA SHACK 10/1
    Sea Shack won over C&D in September 16 on today’s Good to Soft and hasn’t been back here since. He has also dropped 9lb down the weights since this time last year and is now on a good mark. He has been well backed on his last 2 runs and now fully fit on his third start of the year with conditions in his favour he may be able to take advantage at a big looking 10/1.

    14:55 Haydock
    KALAGIA 13/2 gen
    Not beaten far into second at Hamilton last week, almost four lengths ahead of Shaheen there, due to be raised three pounds for that effort but gets in here off last week’s mark. Yard is in great form at present and William Buick, who is operating at a 75% strike-rate on turf for Mark Johnston this year, is booked to ride.

    GINBAR 8/1 gen
    Ginbar was progressive last back end and won over C&D by 4 lengths last September, he had excuses in his last two, is down in Class, and he will be suited by the heavy forecast rain having won on Good to Soft and Heavy. He has been dropped 2lb for a recent seasonal debut at Chester and he should strip fitter for it. Richard Kingscote, who won on him here before, is back in the saddle and hopefully Ginbar can resume progress and take this at 8/1 for the in form Tom Dascombe yard (Last 14 days: 4-20, 20%).

    16:40 Haydock
    DANZAY 8/1 gen
    A very open looking race. Yet I’ve got a fancy for, what to me looks a bit of a dark one. Has Mark Johnston found a good opportunity for Danzay. He’s taken the trouble to secure the services of William Buick. His run one week ago showed he was just as capable on turf as on the A/W if not more so. Today could show us even greater revelations.

    KNIGHTED 13/2 gen
    Knighted led and regained lead at Nottingham’s mile and a bit last time out, and the good to firm going there might be different than one here. This is also a track Kevin Ryan, trainer, has more winners at compared to Nottingham. Very hot contest this one, so not an easy picking.

    There you go, back tomorrow!

    1. His best run has been on soft over course and distance in a class 2 beaten a head by a horse who was 2nd in decent handicaps at the Ebor and Leger meetings off higher marks later in the year so the softer the better IMHO.

      1. thank god i backed sir titan nick was not questionoing your judgement if anything you re assured me to back it many thanks

  6. COLINS BETS

    Haydock
    1.50 Archipeligio
    4.40 Danzay
    Bath
    3.20 Bath Storm Jazz

    Tried accounting for the weather Pontefract going GD/FIRM at 10.07, I live approx 40 to 50 miles away and had heavy rain during the night and it is still raining.
    So be weary with the ground conditions all over the country today.

  7. Hi Josh
    Just had a look at Parole and your write up,still raining here yet BHA, Racing Post and Sporting Life have Ponty still GD/FIRM which will be amazed if that is true,time 14.10
    Negative for me is that Parole is drawn in the car park in stall 16,a low draw is mostly needed on this tight track it can still win but as it all to do,no doubt it will win by 6 lengths going away on the Soft ground!!!

    Foxtrot Knight drawn 2 ideal and is a CD winner on the soft,2 races ago

    1. Hi Colin,
      I believe it has started teeming down again there so fingers crossed…some thinking was also that there may be odd non runner, and while still on wing may not be so wide, but in truth, with 25s shots I will overlook plenty! I dare say he may not be fully tuned up as yet but he has an interesting profile.

      I have just looked in more depth at stalls data…Ponte, 8f, 3yo+, 4yo+ handicaps since 1997…
      16 runners, drawn 16…7 such races/winners.. one was drawn 16.
      5 races/winners with 20 runners but not sure if the still exist/allowed, is 16 max, but in any case, of those 5, 2 were drawn 20/20. Those drawn 11-14 with 11-14 max runners…the outside stall all have at least one winner
      So, while difficult, it isn’t impossible.
      Plenty of those like to take cover/track pace, if he is here to run his race, and therefore they are aggressive, he could get out and tuck in, 2/3 wide, in 4th5th say.

      Time will tell, he looked worth a tickle at those odds and he has the sort of profile where provided I fix my tracking eyes, will reward me at some point!

      Yea, Foxtrot is a solid one, whether something better treated time will tell.

      Josh

  8. Yesterdays results to follow (when more time available)
    Todays selections:
    Course Based

    Porchy Party 14:55 at Haydock @ 14.50
    Danzay 16:40 at Haydock @ 7.80
    Dashing Poet 17:15 at Haydock @ 6.20
    Sir Benford Wales 17:30 at Down Royal @ 16.00
    Texie Rexie 20:35 at Down Royal @ 6.20

    1. 25th may Results:
      Porchy Party in the 14:55 at Haydock @ 14.50 10th 10/1

      Danzay 16:40 at Haydock @ 7.80 9th 6/1

      Dashing Poet 17:15 at Haydock @ 6.20 Won 3/1f 4.40

      Sir Benford Wales 17:30 at Down Royal @ 16.00 10th 14/1

      Texie Rexie 20:35 at Down Royal @ 6.20 10th 9/2 j2f

  9. Decided to look at one race for tomorrow. Josh can you put it up when you do tomorrow’s post please.

    Evergate York Saturday 15:40 1pt e/w price taken 14/1 5 places

  10. Hi Josh
    First four home in the 6.30 Pontefract
    Drawn 5, 7, 3 and 1.
    Even their longest race which is 2mile 5 furlongs if i remember correctly, you still need a low draw.

    1. That’s generally the case but as above high do win so about judging risk against price isn’t it? No luck this time but not impossible from wide. 🙂

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