Members Daily Post: 23/05/18 (complete)

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’ ‘aka Tips’  (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 9/102,32p, +9.5)  (1 point win bets) (Festival Tips 2018: +101.5)

NOTES

None today. 

The two I looked at more closely than most, were Ruby Cherub and Max Liebermann ,and I’ll prob have 1/4 tipping points on each (£5 for me) just in case, and to ensure I’m not too annoyed if one wins! The former hasn’t done much to date but makes handicap debut (Carr 2/12,5p with those last 2 years), moves down in trip and down in class- so unexposed and doing a few things different. The concern is that Carr’s record with 3 year olds in general is only around the 6% mark, she does prefer to take a slowly slowly approach I think, giving them time, Good to Firm is a complete unknown and the yard are hitting one of their iffy periods. They are a bit like the Jonjo of the Flat, in that unless ‘red hot’ you never really know if they are in or out of form. This one could just be very moderate and needs more time, but has a basement mark and with the weight for age allowance has nothing on her back. But those doubts mean I can’t get myself to a point where I’m happy to throw one of my £20s (1 point) at her. Likewise… Max Liebermann is of some interest as he races on turf flat for the first time and is lightly raced…he steps up a furlong which should help and runs as if he wants further, unless he is just slow, he returns back to a handicap and moves into weak enough looking C6. Mosse jumps on and he gets a first time visor, and I think will be in the right spot on this ground, near the front of the pack. There are slight niggles over the trainer form and another where you are guessing as to whether they will like GoodTo Firm…and this ground was rock hard here the last day, prob more on the firm side, and I can’t see it being any different. On such extreme going, I am minded to want to see some evidence that they handle it, unless a silly price prob 16s/20s+ where you can just take more of a stab. I wouldn’t be shocked if he ran a decent race though, although to my eyes that fav looks very very solid and you can’t see him being far away. Worth a couple of interest stabs on a quiet afternoon as there is some method, and both may be worth tracking. I do keep getting my fingers burnt at C6 level though, which is no surprise given how poor/unpredictable most of these beasts are. 

In the same race…when chatting yesterday Amy Murphy said hers may be worth a £5 note, said he is very unpredictable and you never know quite what you will get but if he put his best foot forward he has the ability to win a race like this on the turf. His AW form for her is decent. He should come on for that last run, and at 12s I did throw said £5 at him. So, that’s three darts of interest for me today. 

GL with any bets, it doesn’t look a day to go too mad. 

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re-cap 

There were positives and negatives to take from yesterday…Oishin was just awful, I can only think the ground may have not been to his liking as he was never going a yard. He had raced fine on Good at Musselburgh but that was ‘winter good’ as opposed to summer good I suppose, maybe that was the issue. I’ll try and find the stewards report as given the money/price/sent off fav, they would have spoken to the trainer. He plugged on. I didn’t think he would be outpaced by that mediocre bunch but maybe on that ground he does need at least 2m4f+. I won’t mope around with the Jonjo winner, there were more positives there and had he been a bigger price I’d have tipped him, which is more of a positive than a negative, as at least I was close. I think I can live with dodging him at 8s given the break/he hadn’t shown much (deliberately so clearly, wrong trip/ground/gaining experience)/ it’s Jonjo (long said I won’t touch one of his under 10s again as you never know what you are going to get) and he was stone cold bottom of HRB ratings- clearly with one with that profile I should have overlooked that, given he was so unexposed and what he’d done on the track to date was irrelevant to a point. But that’s said with hindsight and it’s always easy after the race. An annoying one and I am still struggling like mad with ‘jumps notes’, over a prolonged period. It simply isn’t good enough, so work to do there. I’m bullish the flat will come. And hey, all tipping content is +300 points since Sept 1st, mainly to 1 point win bets, so I won’t mope around too much! 🙂 That will be somewhere in the 60-80% ROI region I think. (that has come in two big spikes, Sept-Oct 17, and March/April 18, which is usually how it goes with me and I have no idea why) This current -14 run is run of the mill, I usually don’t go past -25 or so, and won’t start getting agitated until I get near there. On we go. 

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Really Super... well, she looked a tad fat to my eye, like me after an extended Christmas break. Although it takes me more than one 2 mile jog to get into condition. She will come on a bundle for that, and in my own view, probably another run after that. Annoyingly she missed the break and hence had to be held up last- had Lemos rushed her up at that point, around runners, there is a strong chance she’d have been lit up, unable to settle, and would have tailed in much further back. Sadly it meant she was poorly positioned in a race run at a crawl. They turned the taps a tad as they entered the home straight, she was momentarily outpaced before coming back onto the bridle, and making some sort of move from 3 out to 2 out or so, before then getting tired and plugging on- but she tried all the way through the line and didn’t lose out on 3rd by much. Had she broken and sat in 4th/5th which was the plan really, she’d have grabbed 3rd, but it was a run of promise. If I remove my tinted owners shades, she has yet to win a race, and until she does there will always be something niggling. She has more than enough ability and we will have plenty of fun with her over both codes. She just stays and gallops but does have a mind of her own and needs variety in her routine, so mixing flat/jumps may well be the way forward. It was a great day out, a very friendly track and a decent owners terrace in the sun, with views of the paddock to one side and a short hop to the track the other. 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps

Irish Angles

5.10 Wex – Cairnhill 

7.45 Wex- Hickeys Rock 

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide) 

3.15 War- Okotoks (m3) UP

4.45 War- Turban (m3) UP

Flat 

R Fell 

3.35 Ayr – Club Wexford WON 4/1>11/1

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Results Update 

Weekly Results Update (last two weeks)(7th-20th May) 

Results Update: Summary below, link in Key for Jumps + Flat Strategies will be updated ASAP

Weekly Results Update: Strategies 7th May-20th May

Summary

Weekly TOTAL (advised strategies) (Section 1):

• JUMPS – S1 (/) S2 (3/32,7p, +11, +8 BFSP) S2A (subset of S2… 2/14,4p, +18, +15 BFSP) S3 (0/4,0p,-4) S3A (3/10,4p, +7.5) S4 (/) S5 (3/17,4p, +15, +13 BFSP)
• FLAT 2018: S1 (0/4,0p,-4) S2 (0/17,4p,-17) S3A (2/14,5p, -1) S4 (2/13,3p, -0.5) S5 (2/10,2p, +2.5) S6 (2/16,1p, +27, +47 BFSP)

TEST ZONE 

• Jumps angles: 1/11,1p, -8.5
• Flat: 0/5,0p, -5 

‘In Form Horses’ (won LTO or two runs ago, backed once if both a W1+W2)

• Jumps: 5/22,5p, +2.5 (w1 : 2/11,1p, -4.75, w2 3/11,3p,+7.25) 
• Flat: 1/20,4p, -14 (w1 1/11,3p, -5, w2 0/9,1p, -9) 

Handicap Debut (jumps+flat): 0/4,0p, -4 

S3A Double/Treble rated (jumps+flat): 3/7,4p, +9 

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Results thoughts…

I’ll update the links in the key and not too much to add, but I’ll highlight…

Flat S6, which if you want just one strategy to follow will hopefully build on last year’s results and give some good returns this flat season. That is now on 4/37,9p, +22, +42.65 BFSP so far this season. 

S3A ‘Double/Treble Rated’ – so ES+, with two or more red symbols (Indian Voyage would be examples above) are now collectively, across Jumps and Flat… 76 bets / 24 wins / 36p / +41.75.  That appears to be ticking along. Like with most ideas I like to take a temperature check at 100 bets, but there is plenty of logic underpinning that one and with any luck it will keep ticking along 

Jumps…S2A…. jumps qualifiers priced 16/1-25/1 on morning prices… 1 point EW… 84 bets / 6 wins / 19p / +60.7, or 1 point win, 6/84,19p, +37, +66 BFSP. 

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SP2A... I have convinced Ian to run another 3 month trial of his tipping service from 1st June to End August, on the same terms as previous 3 month trials we have done (50% discount, money back guarantee if loss to advised stakes/SP) There will be limited numbers and I will be emailing those on the waiting list first, either today or tomorrow, so if you may be interested you can add your contact details HERE>>>