Members Daily Post: 22/05/18 (complete)

Notes x1, Section 1 (comp) , test zone, results updates, Really Super

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Nottingham 

4.35 – 

Brigadoon (micro class) I1 G1 18/1 S1 S6 3rd 

Northwest Frontier (m age/runs) H3 I3 G3 11/4 S4 S5  WON 11/4 

 

Ayr 

3.05 – 

Adventureman (m class/going) H3 I1 G1 11/2 S1 S2 S4 UP

Warriors Spirit (m runs) ES+ * 9/1 UP

4.10 – 

Zebulon (m going) 10/1 UP

Sultan Baybars (m runs) ES+ H3 I1 9/2 S2 UP

Hajjam ( m runs) ES+ H1 I1 G3 5/1 S1 S2 S4 WON 5/1>10/3 

4.45 – Bobby Joey Leg (m going) w2 12/1 UP

5.15 – Leonidas (m dist) 16/1 UP

 *sorry, I’ve got that ES+ wrong there, it isn’t for OMeara, everything has blurred into one there when looking at my stats! apols. (although those stats for OMeara are 9/22,12p, +26 so still solid) 

 

Chepstow

2.45 – 

Vien (all hncps,3yo+ hncps) w2 ES+ I3 

Bombshell Bay (m dist) w1 H1 7/4 3rd

3.45 – 

Operative (all hncps + 3yo+) G3 13/2 2nd

Boreagh Lass (all hncps + 3yo+) (hncp debut) w2 I3 15/2 UP

4.20 – 

Delirium (all hncps/3yo+) w2 I3  12/1 WON 12/1>9/1 

Iconic Belle (m age) H3 I3 9/4 2nd 

 

JUMPS

Huntingdon 

6.10 – Spader (m2) w1 14,30 H3 I3 15/8 UP

7.10 – 

Veiled Secret (all hncps) 10/1 S2 UP

Guards Chapel (hncp h) I3 10/1 S2 S5 UP

8.10 – 

Justification (hncp h) 10/1 S2 UP

Frankie Rapper (m2) w1 14,30 H3 15/8 UP

 

Hexham 

6.30 – 

Indian Voyage (all hncps + m1) 14 ES+ H3 I3  9/2 S3A  3rd 

Sleep In First (all hncps) ES H1 I1  2/1 S3 2nd 

7.00 – 

Beyond The Flame (m1) 80/1 UP

Chanceiton (m1) (hncp debut) w1 ES+ H3 I3 3/1 S3A UP

9.00 – 

Oishin (all hncps + m1) 14 ES+ H3  6/1 S3A UP

Louloumills (all hncps + m1) 14  12/1 S2 UP

Hey Listen (m1) ES+ H1 I3  2/1 S3A UP

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 6th May 2018)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 6th May 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’ ‘aka Tips’  (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 9/101,32p, +10.5)  (1 point win bets) (Festival Tips 2018: +101.5)

NOTES

9.00 Hexham – Oishin – 1 point win – 6/1 (gen) UP 11/4, never in it, not sure if didn’t go on ground or not the pace in what was a poor race. Damn. 

That will be all for tips. 

6/1 seems about double what I think this horse should be here, given he has some of the best form on paper out of this lot and most in here have many many more questions to answer than him, including race fitness for a few of them. M Barnes had a torrid winter for one reason or another, I’m not sure he could get the work into his horses he wanted as I think their yard is remote enough and open to attack from the elements. In any case, they are back firing on all cylinders now, 3/13,5p in the last 14 days. This one returned after 214 days off LTO and I suspect/anticipate will come on plenty for the run. That was also in a C3 and he drops back into a C5 here, with Dale Irving jumping back in the saddle. Indications are that they mean business. Trainer/Jockey are 6/23,9p at the track. At least this horse knows how to win, something two of the horses near him in the market have yet to do (Russel’s 0/9,1p, Rock N Stones 0/19,1p). This just looks a very weak race. He does run at times like a horse without a trip but his win was over 16f and the hope is that this stiff track may play to his strengths. The race could also fall apart. I hope the jockey makes plenty use of him early as he could get tapped for toe at some point (although I’m not sure by what!) and will be doing his best work late, he does look a trier at least. I thought this looked a great opportunity to add to his tally and out of all those listed on this page today he was the one I was most bullish on, at the odds (6s+)… poor sod.

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Elsewhere…well Warriors Spirt, Leonidas and Ready And Able below, were the other 3 horses I stared at. We shall see how they go. Warriors Spirit drops in class, moves up in trip, CP on, Tudhope on, 3rd run of season/for yard…I can see the appeal…something just niggled at me, he does have to prove it on GF and they haven’t put headgear on for aesthetics. I would have preferred to see him ‘going forwards’ LTO rather than going up and down/backwards. I may have got him wrong, I think I wanted bigger than 9s. The lack of ratings pointers didn’t help my anguish. We shall see.  Leonidas…well I was interested to a point at a big price but he is rock bottom of HRB total ratings which I rarely like. He returns to decent ground, drops in class, Lee on (TJ do well here) and headgear is removed. You’d want to see more though before getting involved, but he is lightly enough raced and was doing a few things differently in an open enough race. Those at the bottom of HRB total ratings do win, but generally in the 5% range and they are hard to find. Likewise, Ready And Able is also rock bottom, were he mid range then I may have gone for him at 8s. I am never destined to get Jonjo’s right…his yard are going well, this one steps up in trip, runs on decent ground for the first time proper, Coleman on, and he makes handicap debut, at a track where Jonjo does well with such types. He has shown nothing thought and the couple above him in the market look to have a decent chance, esp that Eustace horse I thought. Were he 12s/14s + maybe I’d have overlooked the HRB issue. WON 16/1! 

So, we shall see if I’ve got those right or not, no doubt one will go in to annoy me, Warriors Spirit probably top of that list. 

 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Angles

Tom Lacey (any odds)

7.40 Hunt – Kings Spirit 7/1 UP

 

Jonjo Handicap Debut 

7.10 Hunt- Ready And Able (10/1< best)  8/1 WON 16/1 

 

A Dunn (28/1< guide) 

7.10 Hunt – Trafalgar Rock 40/1 UP

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Results Update 

Weekly Results Update (last two weeks)(7th-20th May) 

Results Update: Summary below, link in Key for Jumps + Flat Strategies will be updated ASAP

Weekly Results Update: Strategies 7th May-20th May

Summary

Weekly TOTAL (advised strategies) (Section 1):

  • JUMPS – S1 (/) S2 (3/32,7p, +11, +8 BFSP) S2A (subset of S2… 2/14,4p, +18, +15 BFSP) S3 (0/4,0p,-4) S3A (3/10,4p, +7.5) S4 (/) S5 (3/17,4p, +15, +13 BFSP)
  • FLAT 2018: S1 (0/4,0p,-4) S2 (0/17,4p,-17) S3A (2/14,5p, -1) S4 (2/13,3p, -0.5) S5 (2/10,2p, +2.5) S6 (2/16,1p, +27, +47 BFSP)

TEST ZONE 

  • Jumps angles: 1/11,1p, -8.5
  • Flat: 0/5,0p, -5 

‘In Form Horses’ (won LTO or two runs ago, backed once if both a W1+W2)

  • Jumps: 5/22,5p, +2.5 (w1 : 2/11,1p, -4.75, w2 3/11,3p,+7.25) 
  • Flat: 1/20,4p, -14 (w1 1/11,3p, -5, w2 0/9,1p, -9) 

Handicap Debut (jumps+flat): 0/4,0p, -4 

S3A Double/Treble rated (jumps+flat): 3/7,4p, +9 

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Results thoughts…

I’ll update the links in the key and not too much to add, but I’ll highlight…

Flat S6, which if you want just one strategy to follow will hopefully build on last year’s results and give some good returns this flat season. That is now on 4/37,9p, +22, +42.65 BFSP so far this season. 

S3A ‘Double/Treble Rated’ – so ES+, with two or more red symbols (Indian Voyage would be examples above) are now collectively, across Jumps and Flat… 76 bets / 24 wins / 36p / +41.75.  That appears to be ticking along. Like with most ideas I like to take a temperature check at 100 bets, but there is plenty of logic underpinning that one and with any luck it will keep ticking along 

Jumps…S2A…. jumps qualifiers priced 16/1-25/1 on morning prices… 1 point EW… 84 bets / 6 wins / 19p / +60.7, or 1 point win, 6/84,19p, +37, +66 BFSP. 

 

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REALLY SUPER (4.35 Notts) 

The second of ‘my girls’ runs in the 4.35 Nottingham, on the flat over 2m. She looks a tad fitter than this picture, which was taken in Feb,when she was enjoying a holiday. I’m not sure which 5% I own, I’ll go for the nose! 🙂 

I’m a bit like a kid before Christmas as I’m pretty sure we will have plenty of fun with her this summer. She is a different horse than when we first got her and from before Christmas. She has put on so much muscle bulk and at some point on the flat ‘should’ just laugh at her mark of 75. I think she’ll show herself to be thrown in one day, in either code, and fingers crossed it could be in this race. She isn’t 100% fit and will come on for the run, but she may not need to be 100% fit to beat this lot. She could be fit enough to win, she could blow up a couple from home. It’s hard to know but she’s done plenty of work. It is a fact finding mission, and those are always exciting. If I look at her first three flat runs for previous connections, where she ran with credit, the horses around her in all races have won a few times and their ratings (those in front/or directly behind) are… 106, 92, 110, 99, 96, 104, 105, 86… I’d like to think she will prove better than 75 on the flat at some point! 🙂 She steps up in trip to 2m which should suit on the flat, gets a hood which she has been working in, returns to decent ground, has enjoyed her break and has put on any amount of muscle. I have high expectations for the summer in both codes, which I suppose makes the fall a bit harder if things don’t go to plan. I have had a go at 10s (2 of my tipping points value so far) on the nose and wouldn’t put you off an interest wager, using a fraction of your Blessed winnings! 🙂 If she arrived here on the back of a run I would be as bullish as I could be against this lot. It’s a very winnable race and these conditions look intriguing. There is a chance she is too fresh but she has always travelled well. Fingers crossed. 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

10 Responses

  1. 2.10 Chepstow – Popping Corks 5/1
    Trainer 2 wins from 3 at Chepstow in May
    Sire 27% win c&d
    Hannon & Dobbs had 2 year old winners in May last couple of years

    2.05 Nottingham – Triple Distilled 9/1
    Trainer 3/10 at nottingham in May with 2 YOs
    Sire 33% s/r over c&d

    Good luck with Really Super tomorrow Josh

  2. Hi Josh,

    I am going racing next Thursday to Windsor – any chance of some extra pointers? Happy to pay.

    Cheers

    1. Hi Dan…well with more than 7 days notice and it not being a weekend fixture it would be a bit shoddy if I didn’t have a browse. Remind me Wed morning and I’ll get cracking,I may be off to Cartmel but always Thurs morning,I’ll fit it in somewhere. Josh

  3. Warriors Spirit Ayr Tuesday 15:05 1pt e/w
    Night Generation Huntingdon Tuesday 20:10 1pt e/w
    Second Time Around Huntingdon Tuesday 19:10 1pt e/w

  4. i’m having one of those “don’t really know why” punts today, Nottingham 2-55 Dorcas 22-1 1/2 pt ew, De Sousa booked only other time he rode her she won over 6f at Ripon, steps up to a mile today for the first time after 7 months off. just got that little voice in the back of my head saying it’s got to be worth a go at the price.

  5. COLINS BETS
    Going through a rough patch plenty of 2nds but need a winner or two.
    Ayr
    4.45 Dark Defender
    Chepstow
    4.20 Iconic Belle
    5.25 Volopone Jelois

    If you are betting at Hexham be careful for they are watering even though the ground is reported good.

  6. 15:45 Chepstow – Satchville Flyer (16/1 gen) 1pt EW
    16:35 Nottingham – Hallstatt (7/1 gen) 1pt EW
    16:45 Ayr – Dark Defender (8/1 in places) 1pt EW

    Good luck with your bets today!

  7. My 4 selections:

    Gone With The Wind in the 14:35 at Ayr @ 5.40 now 5.20
    Hajjam in the 16:10 at Ayr @ 7.00 now 6.80
    Saryshagann in the 16:45 at Ayr @ 5.70 now 5.10
    The Last Debutante in the 17:25 at Chepstow @ 5.90 now 6.00

  8. Gone With The Wind in the 14:35 at Ayr @ 5.40 Now 5.20
    Hajjam in the 16:10 at Ayr @ 7.00 Now 6.60
    Saryshagann in the 16:45 at Ayr @ 5.70 Now 5.20
    The Last Debutante in the 17:25 at Chepstow @ 5.90 Now 6.0

    1. Ayr 22nd May – 14:35 Gone With The Wind 6 9/2
      Ayr 22nd May – 16:10 Hajjam Won 10/3 2f 4.71
      Ayr 22nd May – 16:45 Saryshagann 5 9/2
      Chepstow 22nd May – 17:25 The Last Debutante 6 7/1

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