Members Daily Post: 20/05/18 (complete)

Section 1 (comp) , test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Ripon 

3.30- Mutamaded (micro going) H1 I1 G3 3/1 S1 S2 S4 UP

4.00 – Penny Pot Lane (m dist) 16/1 UP

5.00- 

Gamesome (m dist) H3 I1 G3 4/1 S2 S4 S5  UP

One Boy (m dist) 16/1 UP

Oriental Splendour (m going) I3 G1 16/1 S2 S6 UP

 

 

JUMPS

Stratford

2.35 – Modeligo (m1) w2 H3 8/1  WON 8/1>15/2

3.40 – Fingerontheswitch (hncp h) w1 H3 I1  5/2  UP

 

Market Rasen 

2.45 – Hello Bertie (all hncps) (hncp debut)  14,30 ES 6/1 S3 UP

4.20 – 

Lord Bryan (m1) w2 w1 14 H1 I1 9/2  UP

Monbeg Charmer (m2) I3 7/1 2nd 

4.50 – Aunty Ann (m2) H3  6/1 3rd 

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 6th May 2018)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 6th May 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’ ‘aka Tips’  (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 9/101,32p, +10.5)  (1 point win bets) (Festival Tips 2018: +101.5)

NOTES – none. 

I will mention Equus Amadeus (3.50 MR) who I tipped at Sandown LTO at 16/1. Sadly he isn’t 16s here but 9/2, and that may turn out to be a decent price but we all know my judgement at this end is even more questionable than the bigger priced ones! He should be going close here. He drops in class, returns to some better ground and steps back up in trip. He comes here in form. This is a much weaker race than LTO. There doesn’t seem much pace here which could be a concern as he can be a hard to settle but if he is switched off early he should be bang there against this lot. I can’t work out if 9/2 is about right and hence no value, or he should be a point or two shorter. 

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Nothing doing yesterday but both those horses will win at some point this season, I just hope they are a decent price, I’m not at the bottom of the cliff by that point and that I spot them when they do! I don’t think I was the only one to get the draw/pace bias wrong at Thirsk. It looks as though there is genuinely a low draw bias this season to date, whatever the ground. We shall see how that pans out over the rest of the season. After 101 notes tips in 2018 I’m running at a 10% ROI or so which is OK, but I’d much prefer that profit pile to be north of 50/60 points. If I keep that win/place % at 32 then that pile will only be going one way. My profit tends to come in spikes, it always has, and I have no idea why. There will be another one on the flat soon enough, as with Sept/Oct last year, but the flat eyes are clearly not quite up to speed as yet. More graft required. At least I’m mentioning plenty of winners in this section, just not tipping them! Probably another one above 🙂 

Enjoy the rest of your weekend. Josh 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Angles

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide) 

4.20 MR – Tangolan (m3/4) UP

4.50 MR – Agememmon (m3) WON

 

Flat

R Fell

2.20 Rip – Sienna Says (8/1< best) UP

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

26 Responses

  1. Do not know what happened in the 6.10 Thirsk should be high drawn horses should have the advantage not low
    First drawn 1
    2nd drawn 3
    3rd drawn 16
    4th drawn 4

    Statement from Venetia Williams : Charlie Deutsch has my full support and that of my owners.
    Pleased to hear that for he is a young lad thrown into the limelight because of his ability,he made a serious error of judgement with his offence and he as been punished for his stupidity.
    Did the great Lester Piggott also serve time for Tax fraud and he came back to racing,lets hope Charlie comes back stronger and he has learned his lesson of life the hard way.

    1. The flat has a way of throwing a spanner in the works like that. The winner of the 15:20 quickened nicely on that side too. (or else yours would have won I think)

  2. Personally I Think Deutsch
    Should Have Been Jailed For 10 Years . As Should all Drunk Drivers and hasn’t Been Punished Enough
    Mistake? Certainly Knew was in the Wrong by Trying to Escape. The laws in This Country are not Strict Enough.
    I Know My Sister in Laws Mum and Dad were Killed by A Drunk Driver 25 Years Ago.
    Sentence a 5 Year Ban and 300 Quid Fine.
    Replace Them. Williams seems Typical of a Priviledged Group of People .

    R

    1. I agree; a very lenient sentence which could easily have been 3 or 4 years inside
      Poor comments by the trainer who should have suggested that she hopes the jockey learns a harsh lesson on the realities of life

      1. A custodial sentence was always a possibility but following a positive pre- sentence report from the Probation Service,which did not recommend a custodial sentence.
        This is a statement put out by Paul Struthers Chief Executive of the Jockey Association.

    2. Hi Richard
      I do not condone what he has done and i have never drank and drove myself,and thankfully his actions did not have the sad outcome your sister in law as had to suffer.
      Not knowing Charlie Deutsch but all the reports i have read say that this was totally out of character,what i was trying to say yesterday that these young lads whether jockeys,footballers or whatever suddenly find their pockets filled with money along with top of the range cars and yes probably think that they are above the law that is why i said that he has learnt the realities of life the hard way.
      Venetia Williams,been racking my brain all day for sure that she had issues years ago but unable to remember what so her support of him could be a very good thing in getting him back on the straight and narrow,had a visit to her stable 10 years ago and her staff were outstanding a very warm and friendly place.
      Best wishes
      Colin

  3. I’d be interested to hear what Martin and Colin think about the golf now. I’ve backed Leishman, and am thinking about laying off most of my bet now.

    He’s joint top with Aaron Wise, 4 shots clear of the rest of the field. He’s also clear favourite – you can back (or lay) Wise at around 7/4 with only Evens available on Leishman. What seems odd to me is that they’re so close in the betting, despite being level and with the recent “form” (the last two rounds) suggesting that Wise is the man who’s most likely to post a good score tomorrow.

    1. Leishmann has been there and done it all before…a few PGA tour wins and plenty of majors under his belt which could count for a lot.

      I’ve backed Leishmann too but not really a fan of laying off…letting it ride is all part of the fun/heartache

    2. I am a trader and so I would always lay off for a 30 to 50% profit. I said that in here after the first round when Leishmann led. The guys back on 12 under can catch the leaders as well as worrying about Wise. I have £50 each way on Leishmann at 28/1 but laid off at 3/1 for a profit of £800 on him if he wins and £200 if he places and money back if he flops. It makes sense in Trading to do so. I would obviously be laying at 11/10 as the stats tell me it is very rare for a player to be up there with the leaders all four rounds. I know Webb Simpson did it last week but it is rare. I have Jimmy Walker at 25/1 as well and so hope he can get in the places from his current sixth. Anyway good luck.

      1. Just checked my figures and they should be £950, £300 and £0 profit if he is out of the frame.

    3. Hi Neil
      Never layed a bet in my life could be the way forward i do not know but it must hurt when a player wins at 50/1 and your returns have been depleted.

      Had a chat last night with someone who plays his golf at the Hallamshire Golf Club where Matt Fitzpatrick started,asked him about Alex Fitzpatrick younger brother of Matt,who everyone a couple of years ago were saying that he had the potential to be a better player and a very interesting reply first pointing to the brain indicating that he does not have the mental strength of his brother.
      Lets hope Mark Leishman can draw on his and see the tournament out,will be interesting to see if Aaron Wise over the first 6 holes as the mental strength or will the nerves get the better of him,should be an interesting encounter.

  4. after yesterdays disaster only saved by Nicks tip on Ventura Knight (got 18’s early doors) just one from me today.
    MR 3-50. Wynford 13-2 taken but seems to be shortening, 1/2 pt ew, not out of the first 2 since joining the inform Skelton’s and still seems to be well handicapped against most of these, first time blinkers on.

    1. Yes nice one Nick. Also had Rhododendron for a few quid as well as the second and third and so a good day after some initial losers.
      Off to a dog show today!
      In the Cricket today I like Yorkshire and Somerset in the 50 overs stuff.

      Good luck.

  5. I’ll do some write ups but prices going on a couple of these:
    Gaelic Flow Stratford 16:10 1pt e/w Price taken 25/1
    Equus Amadeus Market Rasen 15:50 1.5pt win Price taken 5/1
    Wildmoor Boy Stratford 16:40 1pt e/w Price taken 14/1

    1. Gaelic Flow Stratford 16:10 1pt e/w-I’ll start with the most speculative one for the same partnership which brought us our last jumps winner. I think there is a reasonable chance this horse is well in returning to good ground. His best ever run was on good/firm and he has run a number of horses rated much higher close in non-handicap company (2 of his 3 handicap runs have been off breaks). Bryony slims down to 10st which thought was interesting considering she is 3/12, 4p when dropping to 1st or less in 2018. Trainer is 2/4 at the track and in decent form. Half the field is returning off breaks and I just thought 25s was too big.
      Equus Amadeus Market Rasen 15:50 1.5pt win-Tipped up by Josh in a much tougher race than this where he finished 3. Steps back up in trip which should suit as will the better ground. Lacey and Dunne are 5/11, 8p in handicap hurdles in 2018 so should go close.
      Wildmoor Boy Stratford 16:40 1pt e/w-Won a traditionally hot novice handicap hurdle at the Greatwood meeting 2 seasons ago off 102 (the likes of Tudor City, Air Horse One and Deebee behind him) before running 3 solid races. Has clearly had his problems since but you would have expected him to improve from 5 to 7 so a mark of 105 almost certianly underestimates him. He prefers better ground and has won here before. He would have needed both his runs this year and he has since had a wind op. They put the blinkers on for his chase debut. Dickin is a solid 3/8, 4p in handicaps here in the past 2 years and 8/64, 14p +28 with horses having their first chase start in handicaps. Poste has a good record over fences here and is 2/3 in the last 12 months.

  6. Bet365 have the 3.50 mr aso one of their race of the days. Back it at 4-1 plus and free bet it it wins.

  7. Thanks for the Trainer Track guide Josh. Balding’s Al Barg stood out at 16/1 in the 8:20 at Doncaster last night.

    1. Assume you mean Hannons? 🙂 The final version will be complete asap, but I do list all qualifiers against the stats in Section 1 obviously, unless I miss one… my stats don’t cover 3YO only handicaps as was that 8.0 but if you use them to apply/think about such races/find 16/1 winners then good on you!
      Josh

  8. Stratford 2.35 is an interesting race where chances can be given to plenty. I think Amy Murphy’s Mercian King 5/1 should go well with conditions to suit and a raceable weight and likely to get a nice tow round from a prominent position should have the race run to suit.
    I don’t know much about the jockey but record when riding for AM is reasonable with most runners running ok and placing or just missing out on a place by 1 or 2 positions at big prices.

    In the same race Brother Bennet 7/1 has Paige Fuller teaming up again with Zoe Davidson with a record of 6runs/3w/4p.
    Miss Fuller let me down when riding Venetian Proposal for ZD a couple of weeks back when I tipped it here finishing 3rd of 7 at 16/1 after giving away too much ground at the start.
    Today’s combination won a class 5 at plumpton last month on it’s second start after a wind op and if maintaining that improvement can step up again and be competitive in this class 4.
    I prefer MK but i’m betting both ew and an exacta with MK 1st

  9. Yes, I meant Hannon’s – drank some profits last night.Swayed also by the trainer been in form with a few big priced winners so far this season.

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