Members Daily Post: 19/05/18 (complete)

Notes (x2) Section 1 (comp) , test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Newbury 

5.25 – Wahash (micro runs) I3 12/1 UP

 

Newmarket 

3.50 – Beyond Reason (2YO) 14,30 11/8  2nd 

 

Thirsk 

3.20 –

Computable (4yo+, m dist/class) G3 15/2  UP

Longroom (m going) 10/1 UP

Tanasoq (m going) 13/2  WON 8/1 

3.55 – Parys Mountain (4yo+, + m class) 10/1 UP

4.30 – 

Rasheeq (4yo+) I3 G3 12/1 UP

King Robert (m dist)  G3 16/1  3rd 

Captain Colby (m age) H1 I3 G1 4/1 S1 S2 S4 UP

5.05 – 

Midnight Malibu (4yo+, + m dist) 18/1 UP

Orvar (m age) H1 I1 G3 9/2 S1 S2 S4 UP

6.10 – Spirit of Zebedee (m dist) 14 G1 8/1 S6 UP

 

Doncaster

5.50 – My Fantasea (all hncps) w1 H3 I1 6/1 S2 S6 UP

6.50 – 

White Chocolate (all hncps) ES+ I3 G3 7/2 S3A 2nd 

Pure Shores (all hncps) 10/1  UP

8.50 – 

Buxted Dream (all hncps + m TJC) 9/1 UP

Dirchill (4yo+, + m age) H3 8/1 3rd 

Heehaw (m dist) 14/1 UP

 

JUMPS

Bangor 

2.15 – San Pietro (m1/m1) 4/1 UP

2.50 – 

Innocent Touch (hncp h) 14 H3 I3 9/2 WON 9/2>7/2 

Atlantic Storm (m1) 14,30 7/2  2nd 

 

Uttoxeter

6.05 – Just A Feeling (m1) w1 14,30 H1 I1 5/4 WON 11/8 

6.35 – 

Big Sound (all hncps + hncp c) 14,30 ES 12/1 S2 S3

Bells N Banjos (hncp c) 14  6/1 UP

Shelford (m1) 14,30 H3 9/2 UP

8.05 – 

Magical Thomas (hncp h) I1 10/1 S2 S5 UP

Get Ready Freddy (m1) 14,30 H3 I1 3/1 WON 3/1>11/8 

8.35 – Little Jack (NHF) 14 15/8 

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 6th May 2018)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 6th May 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’ ‘aka Tips’  (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 9/99,32p, +12.5)  (1 point win bets) (Festival Tips 2018: +101.5)

NOTES

6.10 Thirsk – Spirit Of Zebedee – 1 point win – 8/1 (gen) 

8.50 Donc – Buxted Dream – 1 point win – 10/1 (Bet365/BV) 9/1 (gen)

That will be all for tips today. 

Spirit of Zebedee... I thought 8s was worth a go here and I’ve backed him twice, once with my S6 bank and then with my tipping bank…I’ll be licking wounds if he doesn’t win but if that’s the case hopefully Nick M comes to my rescue again with Hadley! Coincidently those two horses finished 1-2 in a race over CD here last season… Spirit was OR 59, and Hadley 52. Today Spirit is 51 and Hadley 62 – while I’m no big weights and measures punter, that’s an 18lb swing, and even in context that there could be more to come from Hadley this season, IF they both run their race, that should bring them a bit closer! The 1-2 maybe, they could be in those positions all the way through. Anyway…back to Spirit… conditions look fine for me as he is a versatile sort who has won on GF. 5 flat starts ago he was winning off 57, and is now back down to 51. He has won off 59 and placed off 66. Undoubtedly he is well handicapped. He bounced back to form at Wetherby LTO and returns 14 days later here, which looks like his perfect rest pattern… 3/11,4p on turf returning 1-14 days, 0/9,5p 16+, suggesting this is when he could be at his sharpest. He is 3/9,7p on turf when OR is 51-60. He is 1/4,3p when Hart is riding, in turf handicaps. John Quinn is in fine form, 8/24,12p in the last 14 days. When on song he does race up there and I suspect Hart will have him right up in the van. On paper he should be going very close here for me. On firmer ground it is best to be drawn high at Thirsk and with any luck Hart comes high rather than low. There is a chance he is marooned up the middle but with any luck having 10lb in hand of his best on turf may help. Given all of that at 8s I thought he was worth a go. 

Buxted Dream… PACE was my main reason for getting off the fence with this one… Munfallet can be up there but other than him this race is bereft of pace/front runners to my eye and I thought there was a chance we see a Jamie Spencer front running special- he is very good from the front, as well as being a master in a big field cavalry charge when more patient tactics are required. This horse led for 4f or so LTO and then kept on battling, only giving way late on. Cumani would be a ‘slowly slowly’ trainer and with any luck he may be in tip top shape here. I suspect he is better with a bit of cut but the way he fought LTO, and responded for pressure, suggests G-F is fine, or certainly at this price worth a go. He is lightly raced and unexposed and will keep getting better, given connections. Cumani won’t have got anywhere near to the bottom of him yet. The trainer is 7/19,13p in all C4 handicaps at the track, 3/5,5p when Spencer rides, trainer/jockey 4/9,7p all handicaps here in the last 5 years. I thought he could win this from the front, that was the main thinking. If he is held up then I’ll be reaching for another drink.

I tipped Ma Fee Heela two starts back..this is his first run on a firm surface for connections which could make all the difference, although 6s didn’t seem overly generous, and he is usually held up. Knowing my luck one of the other qualifiers will win! 

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Nothing else really jumped out at me today. Of the jumps qualifiers, and at the prices, I thought Innocent Touch looked most interesting at 9/2. 

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Angles

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide) 

6.35 Uttox – Bells N Banjos (m3)  UP

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Handicap Chase System Starting Points (10/1< best) 

6.05 Uttox- Just A Feeling 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

25 Responses

  1. Tips – early one while there is still some 4/1 around, 3.00NB Masaarr. Will improve for the step up in trip.
    With the 50/1 place on Thursday I am just in profit for May, which is good considering the deficit we had earlier in the month.

  2. Well this point and shoot strategy seems to be working so may it continue. I’ll try and do some write ups in the morning or at least before the racing starts.

    Rebel Streak Newmarket Saturday 15:15 1pt e/w- Price taken 12/1 4 places
    Hadley Thirsk Saturday 18:10 1pt e/w Price taken 12/1
    Ascot Week Thirsk Saturday 15:55 1pt e/w Price taken 16/1
    Ventura Knight Doncaster Saturday 19:20 1pt e/w Price taken 16/1

  3. 3.50 Newm – Sung Choi Bao 40/1 ew

    Prepared to get egg on my face but think this one has a better chance than the odds suggest. Half sister to Usuain Boat that won over C&D this year. Trainers 2 YO’s also 1 winner 2 places from 3 horses running at the track in May. Poor first run but blew the start and didn’t look comfortable. hopefully tuned up for today. Trainer also in reasonable form with a few winners recently.

    1. I’m going to stick my head above the parapet for the first time, mostly because I’ll be hacked off if somehow this wins and I haven’t mentioned it!

      I’m having a few quid on Princess Florence in the same race, the 350 Newmarket tomorrow. There’s plenty of 33/1 around, and I’ve managed to get my bet on at 40/1.

      The trainer seems to do well with debuting 2 year olds, with 2 winners and another 3 places from his 12 runners in the last year, a marked improvement on previous years. Neither of those wins came with tomorrow’s jockey on board, but the combination seems to do well. Ryan has had Mosse on board 25 times in the last year, with 3 wins and 5 places and a tidy profit at SP. All 3 wins have come at Newmarket, one of which was Grey Britain a couple of weeks ago at 50/1.

    2. Excellent pedigree….. Casamento over sprint distances on G/f going but trainer is only 1 from 26 at 5 – 6F @ Newmarket. Interestingly with debutantes she has only won one race from 32 races all starts at same distance. This is going to be interesting given Casamento’s record with his progeny in sprint races.

      GL if you followed in.

  4. ITV racing.
    Newbury
    1-50. Eqtidaar 3-1 1pt win
    2-25. no bet
    3-00. Masaar 3-1 1pt win,Communique 10-1 1/2 pt ew
    3-40. skybet paying 5 places. suedois 18-1,lightening spear 16-1 and zabeel prince 16-1 all 1/2 pt ew bit of change on lahore 80-1
    Newmarket
    2-05. no bet
    2-40. Mutaaqeb 4-1 1pt win
    3-15. Wahoo 8-1 1/2 pt ew
    bit pushed for time so no explanations but most are obvious.

  5. todays thoughts.

    15:15 Newmarket

    REBEL STREAK 14/1 gen
    Had some respectable form to his name as a two-year-old but failed to win in five starts last season. Gelded over the winter but could only manage fifth in a maiden at Chelmsford last month on his return to action. Makes his handicap debut today off what looks just a fair opening mark? Value, maybe, out the back of the tv, maybe…
    NINE BELOW ZERO 20/1 gen
    Won his first two starts in good style but struggled in the Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot and made a poor handicap debut at York afterwards. Given a short break but well-beaten on his return to action at Salisbury in October. Returns from a 227-day break and has been gelded since last seen. Speed figures are interesting and if he is on song, could go close!!

    15:40 Newbury

    LIMATO 9/2 gen
    NAP of the day for me, simply because I am a huge fan of Harry Bentley and this horse has won me loads of money, I’ve backed it since Harry first ever rode her and she’s ran very well in some and some not very well. Today she steps back up to a mile, if you look at form she has won 0/2 over a mile which isn’t too appealing, however looking at her last win which was over 7 furlongs, she pulled clear nicely. Hoping she can do the same today, if weather stays the same she’ll be running on her favourite ground (good to firm).
    LANCASTER BOMBER 10/1 gen
    Looked badly in need of his first run at Meydan as have most of Ballydoyles’ so far this season. Went close in numerous Group 1s last season including the Breeders’ Cup Mile, St James’s Palace and 2000 Guineas; the form of which reads as pretty solid. Those all had Firm in the going description so he’ll relish conditions here and the fact Ryan Moore is on Rhododendron means he’s automatically a bit bigger price.

  6. Some poor size fields in a lot C1 races Today, however in the 1:50 at Newbury (Listed) I think if Eqtidaar (100/30) settles better than he did at Ascot last time he’ll take all the beating. I’ve had a saver on Gosden’s Juliet Capulet (7/1), 1st run of the year but still holds some big entries.

    The Lockinge (3:40 New) is a hell of a race and you can make a good case for most of them. I’ve settled on Librisa Breeze as good value at 16’s. Has won over a mile and won’t mind the big field, he’s also won on Good To Firm. I’m hoping for a signature late burst through the big field.

  7. Lightning Spear in the Lockinge
    @18s ew i missed the 25s available earlier
    Goes well fresh and ground in his favour. With sky and 5 places defo worth a punt imo

  8. 15:15 Nmrkt – Nine Below Zero (18/1 gen 3p, 16/1 gen 4p) 1pt EW
    15:55 Thirsk – Ascot Week (14/1 gen) 1pt EW
    18:10 Thirsk – Spirit of Zebedee (8/1 gen, Betfred 5p) 1pt EW
    19:20 Donc – Ventura Knight (9/1 gen) 1pt EW

    Good to see my own systems and analysis throwing up some of the same selections as Nick and Josh, fingers crossed!

  9. I want to get involved this Saturday but feel the draw of the Royal Wedding is so compelling that I can’t be bothered to put the effort in. 🙂

    Instead i’m focusing on some T/J combos that I feel could be fruitful today.

    Owen Burrows is awaking from his slumbers and has 3 out today. I’m keen on those ridden by his trusted jockeys J Crowley and Dane O’Neil
    8.20 Donc – Mutafarrid
    2.40 Newm – Mutaaqeb

    J Tuite combining with Ryan More, 40% SR over the last year
    5.25 Newb – Surrey Hope

    D Mc Cain combining with B Hughes at Bangor have a terrific record together (6 runs, 4 wins) and today they go mob handed with 6 runners. I’ve chosen 2.15 San Pietro.

    I’ve stuck these together in a L15.

    Now time to cut the fecking grass.

    1. As a small addendum to that I was looking earlier for stats/trends for the Lockinge.

      I came across a PDF doc online from Ben Aitken for the race from last year which gave his 12 points of reference to measure the runners.

      I ran through all the runners using the same criteria and from a possible score of 12 only one horse hit all stats, Rhododendron.

      Appears that class may tell. And time will certainly tell.

      1. Re: stats for the Lockinge…

        15/15 – Won over a mile before
        13/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
        12/15 – Had won a Group One race before
        12/15 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
        11/15 – Had won at least 4 times before
        11/15 – Aged 4 years-old
        10/15 – Having their first run of the season
        10/15 – Winning favourites
        9/15 – Unplaced last time out
        4/15 – Won by the Richard Hannon yard (Has won the race 5 times in all)
        3/15 – Won by a mare
        3/15 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
        3/15 – Won by a Cheveley Park stud-owned horse (won it 5 times in all)
        2/15 – Won by trainer Sir Michael Stoute (has won the race 7 times in all)
        0/15 – Winners from stall 1 or 2
        The average winning SP in the last 15 runnings is 3/1
        No winner aged 7 or older since 1958

  10. Morning folks,

    Sorry it’s a bit late.
    20 points being staked today.

    Will try and do running total later if I get chance. Think we are still 250+ not sure. Been a quiet few days for me so let’s see if we can source a couple of nice priced winners from this lot….

    THK 2.10 newgate angel 80s, 3.20 sfumato 33s, 3.55 music seeker 28s and save the bees 33s, 6.10 etienne gerard 50s
    Nav 3.10 abamanova 14s….I just missed the 20s last night on this one. 14s is the price I got…into >9s
    NEWB 3.40 zonderland 33s
    UTTOX 7.05 schap 16s, 8.05 goal 16s…..I know a lot of you have been asking Josh about ‘next time out runners ‘ he tips. I don’t think my list is looking much different! This one ran last weekend and I tipped it.
    DON 6.20 oberyn martell 12s, 8.20 scenery 22s is what I got last night.

    Good luck today

  11. Oh and I’ll tell you all know that I have backed every single selection today. I’m not going to say…. DYOR today!

    Good luck

  12. COLINS BETS
    Newbury
    5.25 Rip Orf
    Thirsk
    3.20 Harome
    3.20 Landing Night
    5.05 Out Do
    6.10 Searanger
    6.10 Extrasolar
    6.10 Clergyman
    Doncaster
    5.50 Swansway
    7.20 Jazeel

  13. After Stewart jinxed me yesterday I might be returning the favour here but after some thought with Sky paying 5 places and several paying 4 places and doubts about the favourites I had to add one more here:
    Lancaster Bomber Newbury 15:40 1pt e/w

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