Below I have repeated the stats qualifiers from today’s members’ post for Hamilton. The key below explains what all the symbols etc are – the point of my 7 week trial is to get to grips with my unique approach, which 40% or so of people seem to like come the end of that period (most thoroughly enjoy the community also, or the ‘fraternity feel’ as one new member put it)
Anyway, I have picked out Hamilton as I hope a few of those below will go close. Flat Strategy 6 (S6) is the main systematic strategy and has found 25/1 and 16/1 winners in recent days, Abushamah hits that below. S4 is a decent yardstick also. To start with the horses below hit my unique trainer stats for Hamilton, and can simply be viewed as a list of ‘starting points’, for you to use as you please. Some use them to help with their own research or as a ‘way in’. Some pick the odd strategy to follow and back them systematically etc. It’s all about choice, and winning over time, and having plenty of fun along the way. Do NOT just back everything listed below, that’s a quick way to the poor house although who knows, may work this evening! 🙂
(you can take a 7 week trial for £7 HERE>>>)
Hamilton
6.25 –
Alemaratalyoum (all hncps) w2 6/1
Magic City (all hncps) H3 I3 G3 6/1 S4 S5
7.00 –
Akkadiam Empire (all hncps) 20/1
Archipeligo (all hncps) 25/1
Vive La Difference (m age) H3 I3 G3 11/2 S4 S5
Abushamah (m age) I1 20/1 S6
8.35 –
Nuns Walk (all hncps, 3yo+) H1 I3 G1 11/2 S1 S2 S4
Havana Star (all hncps, 3yo+) 9/1
Cosmic Chatter (m age) H3 I3 G3 15/2 S4 S5
*
KEY
H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)
G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated
I1/I3 = Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3
14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr
S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start. w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)
‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>> (updated to end 6th May 2018)
21 Responses
Time to add a handful to the pot all e/w, will try get back before racing with reasoning
A 7.45 – Isaacstown Lad @ 33
8.50 – Rogue Diamond @ 12
C 6.30 – True to Herself @ 20
Nb 4.15 – Tinsmith @ 28
Nm 4.25 – Cogital @ 16
GL with whatever your on
Mike
18th May Newbury 6f Mdn (is this the first?)
I am back a day or so early after mishaps on my walking holiday. Emergency admittance to A & E on the first night and had to do six days walking with a catheter in situ. Ouch. Got back yesterday for an apptmnt with specialist and now all sorted so off to Newbury.
Newbury 1.30
Ratings
1. Advertise, Eyelool
2. Alfie Solomons, Burj, Manton Warrior, Pesto, Valentino Sunrise
3. Lahessar, Requited
Ratings Bets 1pt win Advertise and Eyelool
Nebo won this last year for Charles Hills at 25/1. Not worth risking any forecasts as there are so many tj combinations that work well here. Just a note to watch out for any Meehan runners shortening late on, this is a race he has targeted. He has Manton Warrior with Mosse up in the first Div and Mendoza and Salam Zayed in the 2nd div with Harley and Kingscote up. Hard to read anything into the jockey bookings. All 3 are 20’s and up on bf at present.
Newbury 2.30
Ratings
1. Blonde Warrior, Fly the Nest, Happy Power
2. Artistic Rifles, Mykindofsunshine, Salam Zayed
No bets. I noted Fly The Nest as a good one on confirmation at Newmarket so with experience I think he will take all the beating.
Hugh
that sounds rather unpleasant Hugh! Glad to hear you’re on the mend, GL today and enjoy the day out.
Josh
That sounds grim Hugh, glad you’re feeling better.
On the plus side, you win the prize for “most nicely formatted message ever” on RTP.
(oh that’s my editing haha. 🙂 )
Good to see your postings again Hugh & hope you feel somewhat better soon
Nice start to the day Hugh, thanks.
Cracking day yesterday, lets see if the ratings can finish the Dante Meeting on a high and get some nice profit on the board. 4 races today.
14:20 York – Marygate Stakes
1st – No Lippy -> 127.68 (5/1 gen)
2nd – Signora Cabelloe -> 86.09 (28/1 gen)
3rd – Spell -> 63.97 (12/1 gen)
Notes: Favourites do quite well in this race winning 6 of the last 13 but the average SP of the winner is higher than expected at 15/2. Of the three above No Lippy stands out, tipped her last week at Chester and duly won. Different class this time but she may be the more street wise horse in this race from the 2 wins under her belt. The other two don’t really catch my eye. Tips -> No Lippy 1pt WIN
14:55 York – Michael Seely Memorial Stakes
1st – Dance Diva -> 45.65 (9/1 gen)
2nd – Awesometank -> 44.41 (17/2 in places)
3rd – Threading -> 44.32 (11/4 gen)
Notes: Most likely to win by number of trends hit is Awesometank but he isn’t proven when running after a break, normally needs a few runs. Dance Diva I have concerns if step up to 1m will suit. Threading seems the most likely winner of the three but considering the ratings are split from top to bottom by just 13 points, this just shows how close this race could be. I will be slightly conservative on this one. Tip -> Threading 0.5pt WIN
15:30 York- Yorkshire Cup
1st – Wicklow Brave -> 84.24 (16/1 gen)
2nd – Stradivarius -> 67.68 (10/11 gen)
3rd – Call to Mind -> 60.57 (11/1 gen)
Notes: 5 wins from 14 winners for favourites in this race puts Stradivarius in the mix, add to that 12 from 14 winners have been 5yo or above gives a good point to old multi-purpose Wicklow Brave. I’d like to see the WB get the win but Stradivarius just seems a little too strong for this one. Tips -> Stradivarius 2pt WIN and Wicklow Brave 0.5pt EW
16:05 York – Equinity Technology Handicap
1st – Thundering Blue -> 128.23 (9/2 gen)
2nd – Valcartier -> 84.21 (7/2 gen)
3rd – Master Carpenter -> 80.64 (7/1 gen)
Notes: Gosden has a good record in this race. Master Carpenter won this last year and is now lower on mark than that win. Thundering Blue has his best efforts on ground with some cut so he may not perform as well as others today. The two for me are Master Carpenter and Valcartier, Valcartier interests as said above Gosden has a good record in this race, plus the yard and jockey are in great form at the moment. If he can progress he can win today. Tips -> Valcartier 1pt WIN and Master Carpenter 1pt EW
All odds are as of 10am, had some internet issues so couldn’t get the post up then. So if prices have changed my apologies but I always post using advs odds and SP.
Good Luck with your bets today!
Yes i also go for Wicklow Brave and 3:20 Newmarket Rotherwick
and 4:55 newmarket My Target
Great start to the day.
Yes a very good start to the day for the ratings, just a pity I tunnelled on my write up. Looking back over the winner and all the reasons were there to back, doh!!
4 from 4 for the top 3 rated today but my own arrows landed on the wrong targets from the top 3 unfortunately. That 20/1 SP winner in the first race will hurt for a while!!! However not all bad even though it finished -2.22 pts using the tips I gave. For the 3 days of the York Dante Meeting it ended +4.83pts which is noting to be shamed. Chester and York have provided +7.86pts with a SR of 26.42% and ROI 13.66% (but that was based on backing all 3 last week at Chester so those numbers could have improved or been made worse :/).
Hopefully some of you got on the winners today, I will try to get some ratings up for tomorrows races before lunch time.
Chris M, I’m always interested/on the look out for good ratings.
Can I ask if the ratings are race specific or a general rating?
Some top-rated are 100+ and others 40+, so it’s intriguing.
So the rating is specific to each race, hence why as you say the rating can differ for top rated.
The rating is generated from trends for the given race, each horse starts equal then as they hit or miss trends affects the rating. I could use top rated from the trends to find winners, which many do, but flat racing has more to give to make it more accurate. I look at the stalls each horse is drawn in and try to find a bias for each one which is then applied to the ratings. I then look at past runs and see how the horse has ran previously and compare their run style to how the winners of that race have ran in the past, this gives another bias which is applied to the rating. This gives the final rating that you see above.
Hopefully my madness makes sense.
I am curious as to how you create the ratings? Have you created your own system/algorythm to do this? How any hours do you put in? When I worked I put in 5 hours a day on betting and it took me 5 years until it paid off properly.
Through Traders groups I know guys who have created their own ratings systems and they mostly have good programming skills (I do not).
I gave a brief overview of how I create the ratings in the comment above yours or do you mean a more detailed version? The vast majority of time is spent researching the trends which I narrow down after the initial research, this could take anywhere between 30mins to 45mins per race. Once the trends are found the rest is all maths (which is the part I enjoy coming from an engineering background). Don’t get me wrong I have still to hone my own selections process from these ratings, as proven in the 2:20 when I tunnelled vision on No Lippy and barely considered the other two where Signora Cabello won at 20/1 SP. Will feel that burn for a while! I don’t claim to be a tipster(too much pressure haha), I just love the puzzle and maths behind choosing the right horse which led me to come up with the ratings system. Feel like I’ve waffled here but hopefully that helps Martin, any other questions just fire away.
Cheers Chris. I was more interested if there was more to it than trends etc etc but now get what you do. I use excel spreadsheets that convert into graphs which tell me which tipster/system to follow for the next week. I used to be an excel jedi knight but no more and so keep it simple now.
Good luck and I will follow you with interest.
With Coronet winning (2/1 SP), two each-way selections also winning (El Astronaute 15/2 and Main Desire 12/1) and Kessaar placing at 9/2, there was a 4.65 pt profit (37%) yesterday. I actually achieved +7.4 pts (57%) due to early prices/BOG etc.
Today, we have several tricky handicaps to look at as well as some good Class 1 fields.
Based on my trends & value approach, my selections for today are:-
220 Nicki’s Angel, Strings of Life (ew)
250 Sheikh Reika (only 1 selection as only 6 run)
325 Stradivarius looks the one to beat. If you don’t like the price, I am thinking of Call To Mind to win w/o Stradivarius).
405 Capton, Titus (both ew)
435 Crafty Madam, Pepita (both ew)
505 Fool For You, Dotted Swiss (both ew)
540 Victory Chime, Brisk Tempo (ew)
Good luck with any bets today.
HERE’S A FEW HORSE CHESTNUTS FROM WITHIN THE CRICK’S MANUAL OF AGAINST THE GRAIN PUNTING POINTERS ……… SIT BACK ENJOY AND DON’T BLAME ME .. I AM EASILY HURT YOU KNOW 🙂 ( MOST ARE PROBABLY JOSH’S POINTERS ANYHOW 🙂 )
5 (10) 33138-7
3yo Filly 1.40 Newmarket
SHANIA SAYS
Jim Crowley / Ian Williams
Notes: TRAINERS 3YO+ HORSES IN CLASS 3 + HANDICAP RACES
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3 (14) 1
2yo Filly 2.20 York
CARRIES VISION
R L Moore /W J Haggas
Notes: TRAINER : 8F+ RACES (ANYWHERE BUT MIDLANDS AND SOUTH TRACKS ) PREFERS FLAT TRACK 2YO 3YO & 4YO
********************************************************************************
11 (9) 1/51187-
4yo Geld 2.35 Newbury
DARK POWER
M Harley /C G Cox
Notes: TRAINERS RUNNERS FIRST TIME OUT AFTER BEING GELDED (ESPECIALLY FIRST TIME OUT THIS YEAR)
********************************************************************************
12 (7) 1631-00
7yo Geld 2.35 Newbury
BOY IN THE BAR
Josephine Gordon / Ian Williams
Notes: TRAINERS 3YO+ HORSES IN CLASS 3 + HANDICAP RACES
Notes: JOCKEY : DREAM TEAM WHEN RIDING FOR IAN WILLIAMS IN HANDICAPS
********************************************************************************
1 (6) 462114-
3yo Filly 2.55 York
AWESOME TANK
D Tudhope / W J Haggas
Notes: TRAINERS 8F+ RACES (ANYWHERE BUT MIDLANDS AND SOUTH TRACKS ) FLAT TRACK 2YO 3YO & 4YO
********************************************************************************
1 (11) 533224
4yo Geld 3.05 Newbury
EPITAPH
Tom Marquand / M Appleby
Notes: TRAINERS RUNNERS TOP WEIGHTED AND DOWN IN CLASS ALL TOP WEIGHTS IN ALL / ANY RACES
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2 (2) 36312-4
4yo Colt 3.30 York
CALL TO MIND
W Buick / W J Haggas
Notes: TRAINERS 8F+ RACES (ANYWHERE BUT MIDLANDS AND SOUTH TRACKS ) FLAT TRACK 2YO 3YO & 4YO
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1 (20) 81-
3yo Colt 3.40 Newbury
ACCESSOR
Tom Marquand / R Hannon
Notes: TRAINERS HORSES RUNNING SAME DISTANCE OR HALF A FURLONG MORE THAN LTO
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2 (4) 1
3yo Colt 3.40 Newbury
NORDIC PASSAGE
R Havlin / J H M Gosden
Notes: TRAINERS AW TO TURF DEBUTANTES 7/8F CLASS 4 AND DOWN
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6 (16) 2-5
3yo Colt 3.40 Newbury
HUMBOLT CURRENT
James Doyle / W J Haggas
Notes: Initially looks to be a stayer who prefers to hang in the middle to back of pack. Conentrate on races where there are a number of horses who like to lead, and this should suit Humbolt Current as he waits for them to tire before heading to the front.
Notes: TRAINERS 8F+ RACES (ANYWHERE BUT MIDLANDS AND SOUTH TRACKS ) FLAT TRACK 2YO 3YO & 4YO
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14 (17) 87
3yo Geld 3.40 Newbury
SCIMITAR
Hollie Doyle / R Hannon
Notes: TRAINERS HORSES RUNNING SAME DISTANCE OR HALF A FURLONG MORE THAN LTO
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1 (15) 3-
3yo Colt 4.15 Newbury
AL MUFFRIH
James Doyle / W J Haggas
Notes: Focus on the longer distance races of 1m2f or further during this flat season.
Notes: TRAINERS 8F+ RACES (ANYWHERE BUT MIDLANDS AND SOUTH TRACKS ) FLAT TRACK 2YO 3YO & 4YO
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8 (9) 03-
3yo Colt 4.15 Newbury
GENDARME
Tom Marquand / R Hannon
Notes: TRAINERS HORSES RUNNING SAME DISTANCE OR HALF A FURLONG MORE THAN LTO
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3 (8) 1252-21
4yo Filly 4.35 York
PEPITA
Rossa Ryan / R Hannon
Notes: TRAINERS HORSES RUNNING SAME DISTANCE OR HALF A FURLONG MORE THAN LTO
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8 (9) 217193-
4yo Filly 4.35 York
CRAFTY MADAM
R L Moore / C G Cox
Notes: Jockey Angle RYAN MOORE IN THIS CLASS OF RACE (1/2 OR 3) ON CLEAR FAVOURITE
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1 (6) 12132-0
4yo Colt 4.55 Newmarket
ALMOREB
Jim Crowley / R Hannon
Notes: TRAINERS HORSES RUNNING SAME DISTANCE OR HALF A FURLONG MORE THAN LTO
********************************************************************************
3 (11) 772-131
3yo Filly 5.05 York
DOTTED SWISS
S M Levey / R Hannon
Notes: TRAINERS HORSES RUNNING SAME DISTANCE OR HALF A FURLONG MORE THAN LTO
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6 (5) 087-366
5yo Geld 5.20 Newbury
BOYCIE
Emma Taff / R Hannon
Notes: TRAINERS HORSES RUNNING SAME DISTANCE OR HALF A FURLONG MORE THAN LTO
********************************************************************************
3 (4) 549-1
3yo Geld 5.40 York
VICTORY CHIME
Louis Steward / R M Beckett
Notes: TRAINERS RUNNERS UP IN DISTANCE SINCE LAST RACE
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5 (3) 932126
3yo Colt 5.40 York
SOTOMAYOR
S M Levey R Hannon
Notes: TRAINERS HORSES RUNNING SAME DISTANCE OR HALF A FURLONG MORE THAN LTO
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3 20U/26F-
9yo Geld 6.05 Aintree
KATACHENKO
B Hughes / D McCain Jnr
Notes: JOCKEY ANGLE : DREAM TEAM WHEN RIDING FOR D McCAIN IN HANDICAPS ONLY
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8 P1/0632-
6yo Geld 6.40 Aintree
EATON HILL
Richard Patrick Kerry Lee
Notes: Trainers runners in Handicaps • Chases (includes Novice handicaps) • Irish Bred (IRE) • 12/1 or shorter SP
Notes: jockey : It’s his association with Kerry Lee that has pulled in the most winners for the young man and the pairing have some eye-catching figures well above expectation He’s obviously a favorite of the ladies Away from trainer stats and it’s very much in the Handicaps where he is cutting the most mustard. again well above expectation That makes perfect sense, however, as his claim can be used to it’s full potential in these races. I’ve also noted that he’s a jockey that can very much do the job when the money is down. Take a look at his stats when one of his mounts start in the top 2 in the market… Clearly a young man who feels no pressure to be riding a fancied horse, in fact those stats suggest he positively revels in the fact he’s on a horse that’s attracting plenty money.
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1 1/31231-
5yo Geld 7.45 Aintree
WHO’S MY JOCKEY
R Johnson / P J Hobbs
Notes: JOCKEY : ANYTHING OVER 2M7F + RIDING FOR P J HOBBS
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4 57/161U-
6yo Geld 7.45 Aintree
POLYDORA
Nico de Boinville / Tom Lacey
Notes: TRAINERS RUNNERS = 5 OR 7 YEAR OLDS / 0 – 4 RUNS SO FAR / HORSES UPPED IN TRIP FROM LTO
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11 23/4P66-
8yo Geld 7.45 Aintree
KING OF FASHION
T J OʼBrien / Kerry Lee
Notes: TRAINERS HORSES THAT ARE : IN Handicaps • Chases (includes Novice handicaps) • Irish Bred (IRE) • 12/1 or shorter SP
THAT’S ALL FOLKS …… HAPPY PUNTING TODAY
BC
THANK YOU FOR THE TIPS BUT WITH THE SUN I AM GOING OUT HOPE
TO BACK WICKLOW BRAVE HOPE HE DOES THE BUSINESS MARIA 18/5/18
ENJOY MARIA 🙂