Members Daily Post: 18/05/18 (complete)

Notes x2, Section 1 (complete) , Test Zone, York Quals

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Newbury 

2.35 – Poets Vanity (micro TJC) (hncp debut) 10/1  UP 12/ 1

 

Newmarket 

3.55 – Alqamar (all hncps + micro runs) 14,30 I3 G1 11/4 S2 UP

5.30 – Poet’s Princess (m age) H3 I1 G3 11/4 S2 S4 S5 UP

 

York

4.35 – 

Isabella (m dist) w2 I3 6/1 UP

Angel Of Darkness (m runs) I3 9/1 UP

 

Hamilton

6.25 – 

Alemaratalyoum (all hncps) w2 6/1  UP

Magic City (all hncps) H3 I3 G3 6/1 S4 S5  UP

7.00 – 

Akkadiam Empire (all hncps) 20/1 UP

Archipeligo (all hncps) 25/1 UP

Vive La Difference (m age) H3 I3 G3 11/2  S4 S5 WON 11/2>3/1 

Abushamah (m age) I1  20/1 S6 UP (turn not far off, that was a marked step forward) 

8.35 – 

Nuns Walk (all hncps, 3yo+) H1 I3 G1 11/2 S1 S2 S4 

Havana Star (all hncps, 3yo+)  9/1 UP

Cosmic Chatter (m age) H3 I3 G3 15/2 S4 S5 UP

 

JUMPS

Aintree

5.35 – Kupatana (m1+m1) (hncp H debut) w2 14, 30  H3 I3 9/2 WON 9/2 

6.40 – Wenyerreadyfreddie (m1+m1) 14,30 8/1 2nd 

7.45 – Lough Derg Farmer (m1+m1) 14,30  11/1 S2 UP

 

Bonus (Ireland) 

7.55 – Bold Sky (m2) 7/1 UP

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 6th May 2018)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 6th May 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’ ‘aka Tips’  (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 9/97,32p, +14.5)  (1 point win bets) (Festival Tips 2018: +101.5)

NOTES 

2.35 Newb – Poets Vanity – 1 point win – 10/1 (gen) UP 12/1… hmmm, I was delighted with the first 3f of that race, right up alongside the eventual winner, apparently lobbing along, jockey happy… he was the last to move on her but there wasn’t anything under the bonnet. Maybe she hasn’t trained on. For whatever reason (can’t blame ground given previous wins, unless she is heavier now and won’t put down on GF) she has found nothing and cut out quickly. One to track but unlike the Johnston horse I’d be surprised if she won on her next start, on that evidence anyway! At least Nick nabbed the winner. 

8.35 Ham – Cosmic Chatter – 1 point win – 10/1|11/1 (gen)  UP, never at the races, slow away, taken off feet, awkward head carriage as if feeling something, poss the ground. Moving on. 

that will be all for tips 

Poet’s Vanity… looked worth a go at 10s given her ‘could be anything’ profile in handicaps. She has some smart form as a 2/3YO including a G3 win and some creditable efforts in some deep races. I find it interesting that they keep her in training, given she has black-type and is probably worth a chunk as a mother in waiting. She did far too much too soon on reappearance LTO, over 7f, and I found this drop in trip and return to GF of interest – especially as she is a prominent racer. I hope they try and make all if she has the pace or in any case shouldn’t be too far behind. If she should recapture any of her past form you’d like to think she will go close in a race of this nature- and it doesn’t look the deepest of C2s to my eye, certainly everything else has plenty of questions also. I don’t think Andrew Balding is out of form as such- he’s had so many placed horses recently that it just appears to be a bout of bad luck, plenty of them are running well. At a double figure price I’ll roll the dice and hope that she has a fair bit in hand in a race like this. 

Cosmic Chatter… I’ve gone for a very exposed handicapper here but one who is in form. He caught the eye LTO at Pontefract, coming from right out the back when it paid to be handy, as is often the case there. He was drawn wide from memory so they decided to slot him in and ride for luck. He somewhat rattled home. The second was up there the whole way and a decent yardstick and the winner was thoroughly unexposed, so the right horses in and around him. He drops from a C4 to C5 today (my eyes increasingly on the class droppers) and is on a low mark compared to past exploits. Jimmy S also jumps back in the saddle. The horse is 0/5,4p over CD so I thought he was likely to run his race. He is also one of a few in here who don’t seem to mind G-F. I think nearly everything in here looks like they prefer some cut so it could be a question of who handles it best. The ground is a question for plenty of the younger ones. He is versatile pace wise and has won before when being ridden more handily so I hope they get him up there. He can be keen which is why they like to get cover I assume but if Jimmy S can settle him front rank, he won’t be far away come the end here. I marked up that last run and fingers crossed he can go one better. I thought a double figure price was a tad insulting to his chance but maybe I’ll pay the price for backing an 8-Y-O in a race packed full of 3/4 YOs. I’d probably best have a saver on Nuns Walk given the strategies he hits! 

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Elsewhere… I did think Angel of Darkness looked of some interest, not enough for a full tipping point but I may have an interest wager on him. Vive La Difference looked of most interest of the S4s to my eye (other than Cosmic Chatter)… I think he got a shoddy ride LTO when he also hit a strategy I think..the race was stop start and his jockey had him too far back. He had to use so much energy to get into a competitive position and come the last 100 yards he didn’t really have much left, up against a horse who made his challenge from a more prominent starting position. D Allan jumps back on board and I think he’ll go very close. Famous last words. Magic City may appreciate the drop back in trip also and ran OK LTO. 

At York, having flicked through those horses below…I thought the two Fahey Quals looks interesting enough and that angle doesn’t owe me anything given it has found a 12/1 winner already this week. Some fun 5s on both I suspect, to hopefully top up the beer fund! I looked at the 5.05 – O’Meara has won 2 of the last 4 renewals of this and his 20/1 winner last year was put up against the same stats as below. I thought Tudhope’s mount looked of some interest for change, and I’ll back both on the machine just in case.

I was intrigued by Koditime... I always find it interesting when a horse is that short in what appears to be a competitive race on paper. Everything suggests he may blow this lot away. And the booking of Moore would support that… Cox has booked him just 8 times in the last 5 years, 5 of them have won, a further one has placed. They also team up with Crafty Madam in the 4.35… given the jockey/trainer stats I’d be surprised if one or both didn’t go very close. That is a clear sign of intent from Cox and his yard is red hot at the moment. 

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Yesterday was satisfying and frustrating all in one! Abareeq hacked up, having failed to do so when tipped at Chester. I backed him and hope you had a nibble. Although said with hindsight I clearly should have been more bullish and tipped the bugger. The reasoning would have been similar to LTO, with the added cherry that he dropped into a C4 here, and moved up in trip which looked interesting, and returned to a move favourable track. He has obliterated them. Given how he has won over 1m4f there, it’s no surprise he wasn’t seen to his best around Chester LTO at what was a crawl. And connections clearly don’t want to front run with him. Still, it’s a positive for the ‘tracking old tips’ approach and I need to work harder on that. In theory they should be a source of future winners, especially given many of the tips focus on unexposed types….Poets Vanity may not win today say, but given that profile she’ll win a handicap at some point soon. El Astranaute won for my simple approach to that race…back the O’Meara one (still running) and the horse I thought would make all who was in form, and who was well drawn. Easy sometimes! (Well done to Nick and Colin also, those two horses were well covered and I hope you had something on!) 

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Angles

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide) 

6.40 Aint – Diamond Fort (m1) 

8.30 Aint- Winter Lion (m1/3) 

 

Flat 

R Fell

4.05 York – Elusive Heights 

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Handicap Chase System Starting Points (10/1< best) 

6.05 Aint – Martiloo 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Big Meeting Notes: York Dante 2018

Stats for previous 5 years

David O’Meara

  • 5-7f: 25 bets / 8 wins / 11p / 32% sr / +71 SP / +114 FSP
    • 8f+, 0/35,3p
    • 5f: 5/14,6p, +50

John Gosden

  • Ran 16-30 days ago: 18 bets / 8 wins / 11p / 44% sr / +16 SP / +18 BFSP

Richard Hannon

  • 0-5 career runs, 9/1 or bigger SP: 10 bets / 4 wins / 6p / 40% sr / +49 SP / +72 BFSP
  • Up 2 classes: 2/9,3p, +39
  • Class 2: 2/2, 2p, +25

 

York Day 3

‘Qualifiers’ (against pointers above) 

2.20 – Spell

4.05 – Valcartier 

4.35 – Isabella 

5.05 – Billy Dylan / Areen Faisal 

Fahey Dante Micro (7f hncps) 

4.35 – Lady In Question / Starlight Romance 

 

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

25 Responses

  1. Nice to get a winner today. Work still manic so no time for write ups at the moment.

    Ninjago Hamilton Friday 20:35 1pt e/w
    Ice Age Newbury Friday 14:35 1pt e/w
    Rotherwick Newmarket Friday 15:20 1pt e/w
    Sternrubin Aintree Friday 18:40 1pt e/w

    1. Lovely win yesterday, Nick, thanks!

      But outdone by Colin who added Abareeq, double thanks!

      Which was also on Josh’s latest system, definitely keep them going me old mate!

      1. Ha cheers, yep those two horses were well covered, and nice rewards. Yep, I will try and keep that new ‘system’ alive, should certainly be a solid ‘way in’ if nothing else and I should really note when old tips run, that didn’t win, on next 1-3 starts, so at least people can make own mind up, but enough will go in to be profitable I suspect. Time will tell.

      1. I think my last 3 winners on the flat have all pinged the start and played catch me if you can and they couldn’t.

        1. you bugger! 🙂 I would say that’s softened the blow but for some reason I appear not to have backed him! Double slap around the face. Well done.

  2. back from my trip to Bath but before we get into horse racing stuff just a quick recommendation for any foodies out there, i was lucky enough to visit JC’s Kitchen in the old Green Park Station it serves Indonesian/Filipino street food and is outstanding giving the food 10/10 isn’t really enough, i had bubble and squeak in a blue cheese sauce with cubes of chicken and belly pork topped with their own hot sauce served with a side salad for the ridiculously cheap price of £7 . if your in the area try it out you will not be dissapointed.
    good night at Bath races on wednesday my picks were.
    5-20. backed the winner Toolatetodelegate @6-1 and Amberine @40-1 ew , i thought Amberine is one to look out for nto as if she had run in a straight line would surely have placed at least and could even have nicked it.
    5-55 Coronation cottage @ 9-2 looked to be struggling a long way out and had nothing in the final furlong
    6-25 Knockout blow 11-2 finished 3rd and never looked like getting near the winner.
    6-55 Pirate king got 9-1 and Roc Astrale 8-1 both ew, Roc Astrale never really got into it but Pirate King might be worth another go slowly away and ridden from a long way out stayed on for 3rd.
    7-25 See the Sea 7-2 very poor never in it.
    7-55 Desert Cross 9-4 won quite cosily pulling away at the finish.
    8-25 Pact of Steel 16-1 backed in to 8-1 in touch but faded final furlong might be better back at 7f.

  3. Morning,

    Well we keep plugging on haha..Nick is not going to like me, or he will have more confidence, don`t know which.
    15:20 Newmarket
    ROTHERWICK 8/1 gen
    Ran well over this trip last time out on return from a break. Speed rating suggests he’ll take the step up in class in his stride. Jockey takes off 3lb and although he doesn’t have a great record here has been in the winners recently.
    SIMOON 6/1 888 sport
    Maiden winner for Andrew Balding in 2016. Good return from an absence when second in 8.5f Epsom novice for new yard last month and has the potential for better still now handicapping up in trip.

    17.05 York

    KIMIFIVE 9/1 lads
    Always seems to run a decent race without winning but dropping to 5f might help. Ability to break well and has shown some pace in previous races. Hayley Turners first ride on the horse and hopefully she can help it find enough to finally get a win.
    MARNIE JAMES 22/1 gen
    Unbeaten at this trip since fitted with a tongue-tie, landing C&D nursery (good to firm) before Musselburgh novice (soft); May need this,but, the price is an indication and if it starts to come in get on, ew shot!

    18:40 Aintree
    WHATZDJAZZ 5/1 gen
    has excellent claims here,based on his near miss at Cheltenham latest, the D Skelton trained 6yo bay mare won three times over hurdles last season,so looks a progesive mare,the Skelton duo should prevail here.
    STERNRUBIN 8/1 gen
    Often front-runner and ran okay when 11l third here last month (2m, soft); cheekpieces on for first run over this trip, which he ought to stay. Front runners do well here and with Dickie on board he should run them all ragged on the turn in!

    Good luck with whatever you back today.

  4. Josh
    I’m off up to Thirsk tomorrow – Haven’t been for years but used to be an annual member there back in the 80’s and 90’s so if you have the opportunity a quick trawl through the card would be much appreciated – Thanks in advance

  5. Nordic Lights was well backed but couldn’t make the places but Popsicle got a nice 2nd to get some change back. Few from me today.

    15:55 Newmarket – Fire Jet (12/1 gen) 1pt EW

    16:15 Newbury – Surya (8/1 gen) 1pt EW

    21:05 Hamilton – Imperial Legend (11/2 in places, 5/1 gen) 1pt EW

    Good luck with your bets today!

  6. COLINS BETS
    Newmarket
    2.45 Del Parco
    Newbury
    3.05 Lady Valdean
    Hamilton
    6.25 Aclimatise
    7.00 Isstoora
    7.30 Star Of The East
    7.30 Rainbow Rebel

      1. I’m probably going to lay back enough to make the win part of the bet risk free. He’s 3.3 to lay on the exchange just now, so every tenner you lay off will cost you £23 of your profit should he win. That’s usually a better way to “cash out” if you’re happy using the exchanges. It means the bookies don’t take another extra cut, which they do when you use the cash out button, and it’ll also leave the place part of the bet intact which means you would still get a payout if he loses but goes on to place.

        1. My two that I put up are one and two and so I have laid off part to make a profit on them. I always recommend that you do this in Golf as things change over four rounds.

    1. oh dear, yep 10 months in jail, stupid boy, can’t be drink driving and 100+, and then compounding the misery by speeding off from the police, having been stopped. Will probably be out in 5 but his career could be in quite a bit of strife. May be back for November mind and VW doesn’t have a stable jock, he was pretty much it, his career may well depend on how much faith she retains in him/support etc.

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