Nothing from me today, there were no overly strong stats/trends for the 5f handicap at York that I could see, having had a very brief flick through.
GL with any bets,
Josh
Nothing from me today, there were no overly strong stats/trends for the 5f handicap at York that I could see, having had a very brief flick through.
GL with any bets,
Josh
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7 Responses
Below are my top 3 rated along with my selection from the 3.
14:20 York – Betfred Handicap
1st – El Astronaute -> 305.06 (8/1 gen)
2nd – Major Jumbo -> 159.24 (8/1 gen)
3rd – Copper Knight -> 124.07 (10/1 in places)
Notes: Ratings point to the top 3 in the market (at time of posting). Interestingly we have had zero winning fav’s in the past. The winner in at least half of the previous races has come from the bottom half of the weights also. With this in mind I think El Astronaute and Major Jumbo are the two I’d take from the top 3 here. I’d be more hesitant and go 1pt EW on both of them trying to get the 5 places some bookies offer.
14:55 York – Middleton Stakes
1st – Coronet -> 104.40 (11/4 gen)
2nd – Mori -> 82.06 (5/2 gen)
3rd – Indian Blessings -> 76.39 (22/1 gen)
Notes: Stall 1 has yet to produce a winner in the 14 past races I have looked at. Stoute and Moore have the best record in this race with 2 winners together. Tough one for me to call but I think the top 2 will produce the winner. I think Coronet is the strongest here but that dodgy stall 1 worries me. Mori has all the credentials to get a win here and the wind op last year could help improve. For me I’d go 1pt WIN for Coronet, I think she will give stall 1 its first win in this race.
15:30 York – Dante Stakes
1st – White Mocha -> 111.68 (12/1 gen)
2nd – Wells Farhh Go -> 90.89 (13/2 gen)
3rd – Roaring Lion -> 72.27 (11/4 gen)
Notes: None of them hit all trends but White Mocha is the more likely winner based on the trends. The average winning SP in the last 11 races has been 9/1 with only 1 fav winning in the last 11 years. With that in mind White Mocha may be the dark horse here to get the win but I also like Roaring Lion to do well stepping up to this trip for the first time. For me I’d go for 1pt EW on White Mocha and 1pt WIN on Roaring Lion.
Good luck with your bets today!
Well done Chris!
Thank you Neil!
Much better day today, finding 3 of the 3 winners and getting all but one in the places from my selections. Backing my selections at Advised odds plus some BOG its a stonking +14.05pts today, even at SP you would have made +12.7pts. Tomorrows woes of -7pts are wiped out today!
Back tomorrow with four from York, hopefully get a few tomorrow
Hi folks
Another beautiful sunny day.
Only four from me today thank God!
Sal 2.10 Power seeker 40/1
3.15 Brancaster 16/1
5.25 Radstone view 28/1 watch your bets!
York 2.20 Holmeswood 16/1
One brave, maybe foolish man took up the chance. We spoke on the phone last night.
I told him VOLUMINOUS 3.50 SAL would drift like a barge!!!!… 18/1 in places I think. How did I know that? At that price I couldn’t resist! But not included in the main bets.
If you want to vent any thoughts that may not be best done on this blog you can email me if you wish? Happy to talk things through. mcolwell1959@aol.com.
With Hamada (5/2 SP) and Reverend Jacobs (4/1 SP) winning and Cavatina placing (4th at 12/1 SP), we saw a small profit of around 13% yesterday. Hoping for a little better, although the races were a little harder to work out than yesterday.
220 Line of Reason, El Astronaute (both ew).
255 Coronet
330 Crossed Baton, Mildenberger
405 Cape Byron, Mythical Madness (ew)
435 Declarationofpeace, Main Desire (ew)
505 True Belief, Kessaar (ew)
535 Kajaki, World War (both ew).
Good luck with your bets.
https://lambourntrainers.com/todays-lambourn-runners/
I KNOW YOUR PROBABLY GONNA SAY THE BEATLES HAVE SPLIT UP AND ALL THAT ….. BUT TRIPPED OVER THIS ON ONE OF MY MORNING TRAWL OF ALL THINGS RACEHORE TARINERS … DIDN’T REALISE TRAINERS CAN BE BOTHERED / HELPFUL AS TO WRITE A FEW ANECDOTES (CAN’T BE THE RIGHT SPELLING :0)
HEY HUM I AM LEARNING EACH DAY 🙂
Perth
3:40PM
MAID OF MILAN
Charlie Mann
She’s got an each-way chance, has cheekpieces on for the first time, but hasn’t run for a long time. Hopefully the ground is okay, but I don’t think she will be winning this.
3/1
Salisbury
2:10PM
GLORIOUS CHARMER
Ed Walker
5/1
2:10PM
SUNSPRITE
Richard Hughes
13/2
2:40PM
FAYROUZ ROSE
Richard Hughes
9/4
2:40PM
POINT IN TIME
Mark Usher
This is a very, very hot race, but she is receiving quite a bit of weight from some of the good fillies in the race. The quality of the race reflects the prize money, but she was fourth at Nottingham on ground which she probably did not like on her first start this year. This will be quicker ground and I think she will appreciate it much more. It is a big ask as this is a tough race, but I can see her running well and might be the outsider of the pack. I would be pleasantly surprised if she won it.
9/1
3:15PM
MAPPED
Charles Hills
He was a respectable fourth on his comeback run at Newbury last month and I’m looking forward to stepping him up in trip. He seems really fresh at home and is a good-actioned, scopey horse who won’t mind the ground.
15/2
3:50PM
TOORMAKEADY
Jonathan Portman
Toormakeady is still work in progress. She is a tall, leggy and honest filly. Not devoid of ability but still a little backward. Her day will come, hopefully just within Elizabethan times.
40/1
3:50PM
WHISPERING SANS
Harry Dunlop
She is a big, big girl. She ran well at Lingfield, I hope Salisbury will suit her better, but there are a couple of well connected runners. I am hopeful of a nice run from her.
10/1
4:25PM
TAMREER
Charles Hills
She’s a New Approach filly out of a useful mare I used to train. She’s ready to go.
7/1
4:55PM
BIRD FOR LIFE
Mark Usher
She has got a very low RPR on the grass, but she came into her own on the all-weather, but when she was running on the grass originally, she was getting handicapped and she was wrong, so her grass runs reflect that. She’s in great form, she has a very good jockey on board and I think she will run very well.
4/1
4:55PM
GARCON DE SOLEIL
Michael Blanshard
Garcon De Soleil has gone up 10lb since winning at Salisbury earlier this month. Now with the extra weight and running over two furlongs shorter on quicker ground makes this a big task!
7/2
5:25PM
GOODNIGHT GIRL
Jonathan Portman
Goodnight Girl has threatened to be a decent filly but never quite delivered. The drop back in trip is an experiment as is the application of blinkers to find a winning formula for her.
14/1
5:25PM
JACK TAYLOR
Richard Hughes
20/1
5:25PM
ICONIC KNIGHT
Ed Walker
15/2
5:25PM
THE GREAT DANDINI
Seamus Durack
He is in very good form and we are hoping for a good run today.
18/1
5:25PM
QUICK BREATH
Jonathan Portman
Quick Breath bids to follow up his Windsor win but faces faster ground which is not ideal. He is training well so a decent run is expected.
4/1
York
2:55PM
INDIAN BLESSING
Ed Walker
20/1
4:05PM
AFAAK
Charles Hills
The ground was the problem for him at Newbury last time. It wasn’t heavy but it was testing and tacky, which he didn’t seem to handle at all. It’d be nice to get him on some decent ground and he’s done a couple of nice bits of work since.
13/2
5:05PM
BURNING LAKE
Charles Hills
He’s taking his work very easily and is just getting a little full of himself, so I think he race will do him good mentally.
8/1
5:35PM
CLAUDIO MONTEVERDI
Richard Hughes
33/1
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