Free Daily Post: 16/05/18 (complete)

2.55 York

This is not a tipping piece, given I don’t have much of a historical record in such races to go on, more an info piece to use as you please – a mix of trends/stats/trainer pointers/shortlists etc…

10/10 aged 4-6 (0/52,4p aged 7+)

10/10 had 5 or fewer career runs wins (0/49,7p had 6+)

10/10 had 0-4 handicap wins (0/45,6p had 5+)

those stats give you 10/100,30p in the last decade and leave a working list of 8…

Gin In The Inn / Private Matter / Golden Apollo / George Bowen / Ower Fly / El Hombre / Quick Look / Dark Defender 

9/10 were sent off 14/1 or shorter SP (1/83,8p, bigger) so you could use that as a focus point

Claiming jockeys: 0/27,5p

Trainers of note: Fahey (0/24,7p), K Ryan (0/15,2p) , O’Meara (2/6,2p), M Easterby (2/6,3p)

PACE… all looks to be high to me…Flying Pursuit and Ower Fly are the two out and out front runners in the race, drawn 15 and 17. The stalls are in the centre I think so it may all depend on what the jockeys do and whether the field splits to either rail, or stay up the middle in one group, which would give those drawn low more of a chance I think.

My four fun pokes at the odds would be Ower Fly / Quick Look / Golden Apollo / Dark Defender 

I’ll probably put some change on at BFSP for a bit of fun.

Use that info in any way you please, if at all.

GL with any bets,

Josh

About This Author

Hi, I'm Josh and thanks for reading my blog, Racing To Profit. Hopefully you like what you find. This is a place for horse racing fans of all levels and ability, bettors and non bettors. Here I, and fellow readers, share our opinions on horses and information that may help you find your own winners. Do say hi, we are a friendly bunch... and if you could use the 'share buttons' above that would also be appreciated :)

10 Comments

You can post comments in this post.


  • Its a small list….hooray!

    NA 415 ladies dancing 20/1
    YAR 4.55 sea tea dea 14/1….525 Moi aussie 20/1
    BATH 5.20 Amberine 20/1……. 8.25 parable 14/1
    PER 7.35 solway tiger 12/1

    I will be back with rolling profit later and i will be staking a few points, maybe two or 3 exacta bets, from which i will be using the rolling pot

    jarrodholmes68 5 months ago Reply


  • Ok four to add to the list.

    YORK 435 montague 14/1
    YAR 525 flat out eric 40/1
    YORK 535 doctor cross 16/1
    N/A 415 mighty missile 40/1

    EXACTA BETS 1 point rev ….two points staked.

    YORK 4.35 montegue / cavatina
    N/A 4.15 ladies dancing / mighty missile
    YAR 5.25 moi aussie / flat out eric
    YAR 4.55 sea tea dea / wild acclaim
    PER 8.25 wyfield rose / late date

    jarrodholmes68 5 months ago Reply


  • Hi guys,

    Two horses that graged my attention last night that have drifted to VALUE that were not on my list…. I will be staking 1point ew on each.
    310 N/A here’s herbie 14/1
    425 YORK cavatina 11/1

    jarrodholmes68 5 months ago Reply


  • Hi jarrod just wondered what is your price range at the lower end of market Josh likes 6/1 and above

    paul bailey 5 months ago Reply


    • 8/1 @ 1/4…… 10/1 @ 1/5

      I don’t usually back anything below 10/1… They must have a chance if I do!

      jarrodholmes68 5 months ago Reply


  • hi josh just a query regarding number of career starts ower fly 25.gin in the inn 25.dark defender33.golden apollo 15.

    pete sharp 5 months ago Reply


    • Ah, typo.. that should read career WINS not runs! Not sure many would race in this with 5 or fewer career starts haha. Good spot.

      Josh 5 months ago Reply


  • Back today with the ITV races from York, if you read my post’s last week for Chester then you know the format. I will post my top 3 rated in each race using my trends, draw and pace bias. Last week at Chester I advised backing all 3 which gave small profit but this time I will take time to decide the strongest from the top 3 and tip them instead (try push up that ROI). Anyway onto today’s races, 4 to be exact:

    14:20 York – Jorvik Handicap
    1st – Now Children -> 57.92 (9/2 gen)
    2nd – Tuff Rock -> 57.79 (8/1 gen)
    3rd – Hamada -> 54.05 (9/4 gen)
    Notes: Of the three I would take Tuff Rock and Now Children, for me Hamada is too short a price for me to work with. Hamada could run away with this one as his jockey and trainer are in fantastic form but I am willing to let him slip. Now Children did not run in 2017 but on reappearance LTO at Wolver he won well when coming home strong late. Although pedigree does not really show he is capable of the trip, the way he finished shows some encouragement, even with the 4lb rise he is fully capable. Tuff Rock is unfortunate to only have 1 win to his name having ran well at Thirsk to get a close second. Hasn’t really got any form on today’s going as he has mainly ran in much softer so he could either love the faster ground or it could prove he prefers some cut. Either way he could feature. Tuff Rock and Now Children 1pt WIN

    14:55 York – Infinity Tyres Handicap
    1st – Dark Defender -> 148.03 (40/1 gen)
    2nd – El Hombre -> 143.41 (18/1 gen)
    3rd – Flying Pursuit -> 142.90 (22/1 gen))
    Notes: Only one to hit all trends is El Hombre. Flying Pursuit’s trainer has a good record in this race with 2 wins from 6 runs. Of the 3, El Hombre and Flying Pursuit catch my eye, Dark Defender although may have a chance, he is 5lb up on his winning mark last July and that was in easier company. El Hombre had an incredibly good season last year with good wins over the same trip and going. The same jockey that guided him through last season is on today which means he knows how to race this horse to victory. Big ask form him today in this class of race but he has every chance. Flying Pursuit is running for the Easterby yard and could make it another winning year for the yard. Good form in these big field 6f races so no troubles expected there. He could well be there in the end so is worth a punt. El Hombre and Flying Pursuit 1pt WIN

    15:30 York – Duke of York Stakes
    1st – Ornate -> 152.42 (80/1 Bet365, 66/1 gen)
    2nd – Harry Angel -> 116.50 ( 8/15 gen)
    3rd – Artistica -> 57.80 (66/1 gen)
    Notes: 5 of the last 8 runners who LTO ran at Newmarket have won here, Ornate hits that note (along with Brando and Sir Dancealot). Trends point to Harry Angle being the winner but at those odds I can’t take him. Of the other 2, the strongest in trends is Ornate and add that to the Newmarket note above he could be interesting. Ornate has the ability but struggled to make any impact LTO on season reappearance but if he can find the form from last season he has a chance as wins at 5f proved he was capable of 6f. Tongue tied re-applied should help today as well. Artistica won well in a listed race bank in May last year then followed that up with a group 3 win at Baden but even with that form she will need to find a good bit here to feature. Ornate 1pt WIN

    16:05 York – Musidora Stakes
    1st – Ceilidhs Dream -> 78.71 (10/3 gen)
    2nd – Ejtyah -> 74.41 (11/2 gen)
    3rd – Dancing Brave Bear -> 61.86 (25/1 gen)
    Notes: Ceilidhs Dream and Ejtyah hit all trends. Ceilidhs Dream had a poor debut put progressed well over the winter to claim a win on her start back LTO at Newmarket, considering she missed the start she made up a lot of ground to win that. Should stay he extra trip today and could be there at the end plus the yard appears to be coming into some sort of form. Ejtyah had only one run to her name which she won but she won well so should progress well over the winter to improve today over the extended trip. Holds an Oaks entry so clearly has expectations of good things to come. Yard won this before so could to that today. Ceilidhs Dream and Ejtyah 1pt WIN

    Good luck with all your bets today! (all odds are as of 10:30 AM)

    Apologies for the long post, could have been longer had I not shortened it by taking the waffle out…

    Chris M 5 months ago Reply


    • Well possibly horrendous day with -7 pts to my advised bets. Even though the top 3 found 2 of the four winners, both winners were low odds so the loss is pretty much the same when backing all 3. One of those days I guess! Back tomorrow with 3 races as the fourth has no trends due to a change in class from previous races. Fingers crossed I can get a nice winner tomorrow

      Chris M 5 months ago Reply


  • Good morning.

    I have applied my trends and value filters to the York meeting and have opted for the following

    220 Hamada
    255 Golden Apollo, El Hombre (both ew)
    330 Sir Dancealot (without Harry ANgel as Harry Angel likely winner, but cannot back at those odds).
    400 Ceilidhs Dream
    435 Commander Han, Cavatina (ew)
    505 Delft Dancer (ew)
    535 Reverand Jacobs

    Good luck today.

    Simon 5 months ago Reply


Post A Reply