Free Daily Post: 14/05/18 (complete)

another quiet day from me…

Nothing from me again, a quiet day again.

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

20 Responses

  1. Review of hos my ratings approach to Chester worked out last week (slightly later than planned due to a weekend away):

    So at advised odds you would have made 3pts and at SP lost 0.5 pts. Not ideal last day with just one winner pulled the balance sheet back down. However I am rather pleased with how they did, finding 8/12 winners and good number of places in there as well. After reviewing my draw bias I apply I have decided to tweak it slightly as this is why I missed some of the nice winners in unexpected winning draws. Overall it looks positive and I am happy to keep posting them even just as an extra bit of info for you all.

    The week ahead we have York which I will try to use the same method for the ITV races. I think this time around I will post my top three then narrow them down if I can, 3 bets each race when winners are low odds is never a good idea.

    Happy punting!

    1. Top work Chris, looks a decent approach in which to work with/build on/pull in the profits, and I like the focus on the ITV7, which makes sense. Options for the placepot also at any given meetings covered, using Chester as an example given winners/places, and one way to try and benefit from the low odds. Look forward to your York musings.
      Josh

  2. Morning folks,

    sorry but this is another list of 16!

    Wol 1.50 agent Smith 14/1, 2.50 gravity wave 20/1, 3.25 silver character 20/1, 5.00 lewinsky 33/1, suni dancer 16/1, 5.35 ad vitam 12/1, three c’s 12/1, st james park 22/1.
    Catt 2.30 simmo’s partytrick 33/1, 5.10 seamaster 9/1.
    Kemp 2.10 man of the north 66/1, 3.45 kaddys dream 11/1.
    Win 6.20 super julius 8/1, 7.50 towerlands park 25/1, 8.20 zabletaswansond 14/1, carlini 9/1.

    good luck all

  3. Morning all,

    For those that are interested since Sat 5th May. 94 Runners 10 winners 25 placed for a
    +239 total including Ubar cool all to 1 point each way.

    1. Impressive numbers there Jarrod!

      Out of interest do you find your methods work best in a particular code i.e NH, Flat or AW? Also how do they do in Ireland compared to the UK?

        1. Jumps and flat …Lets see about the AW today. I will be having a big bet on LEWINSKY today at Wolves! See the write up below

          1. I do apologize to those who who only access the free post. My content is usually posted in the members area and time does not always permit me to post in here if the free area is not available.

  4. Sorry folks a few adjustments needed.

    TAKE OUT
    suni dancer, ad vitam and st james park ..3 in total.

    ADD IN
    wolves 2.55 the lock master
    4.30 spiritual star
    Kill 5.05 squadron commander

    If i were to narrow the list down my best bets in order of preference.

    lewinsky
    squadron commander
    seamaster
    super julius
    the lock master
    silver character
    towerlands park
    man of the north

  5. AW BETS
    Wolverhampton
    4.30 Beatbybeatbybeat
    5.35 Rising sunshine
    5.35 Caledonian Gold

    May minus 7.5 points at Bookmakers sp

  6. Not done any reasoning for a while so i thought i would give you my view on my main fancy today in the shape of LEWINSKY.

    Well Brittan on bare form with runners at Wolves in AW handicaps over the past 10 years is not inspiring 9% win 25% place! When we factor in distance and class at the course we read 21%w 34%p. If we look the operation over the last 2 years we get 23%w 35%p. In the last twelve months it improves to be a massive 30%w 40%p….10r 3w 4p. we have a good sample size! plus the MO of the operation are obviously hitting the winners in this sphere.

    Lets look at Mr Hardie , ( let’s not hope we are not saying ” well that’s another fine mess you got me into” by the end of this rant! ),this does not inspire confidence either at first glance. In all weather handicaps from 152 rides we get 9%w 25p. When we factor in distance and class we arrive at 14%w 23%p. Let us now put this together with riding for Mr Brittan we get 33%w 44%p.

    Brittan does quite well in this sphere with horses officially rated between 50-60. Those figures for this type of race read 14r 3w 4p.

    The hoss. Well he’s no world beater for sure. Having raced over further This is the horses first time over 7f and the first time the blinkers are on! Having looked at previous form, the horse has shown some speed but not been seeing her races out. This drop in distance should really help. The runs on the course dont worry me too much.Her sire is 11r 2w 3p on the aw over distance and class and 3r 1w 1p at Wolverhampton.

    Draw, could be better but this is no forlorn hope. I hope it pans out something like this…The break is key i think here. 5 BBB to burst for the lead, 9 FA coming over and blocking the runs of 1 RBTM and 10 HA allowing LEWY to settle probably 3 deep in 4th or 5th. Showing a bit of speed about one an half out to just lead on the line.

    Happy days!

    This is by far no good thing but with the above and a bit of luck we could have some nice points in the bank.

    1. Hi Jarrod…. You mention Seamaster in your list of best fancies, but not in the full list. Are you thinking of Seamster in the Catt 5.10? Or is it just a typo?

      Tim

      1. Ignore me…. I just found it on the list. I wouldn’t care but I had made a note of it only a few minutes before. Plonker!

        Tim

      2. Seamaster is in my list of 16 above and not removed! My friend… You can see again odds have been smashed again. At this price now it’s a no bet!
        Gravity wave was smashed in the betting from 20/1 available in many places into 6/1. Backing to lay these horses gives you multiple free bet and puts the odds massively in your favour. I’m seeing between 40 -50 % of what I list getting smashed?

  7. SATURDAY TOP RATED :
    15:10 Haydock – John Constable (156) = u/p at 12/1
    19:30 Warwick – Im A Game Changer (138) = 2nd at 5.60 (lost by a short head!)
    14:55 Hexham – Dica (122) ***NO BET***
    16:05 Hexham – Sigurd (122) ***NO BET***
    14:50 Ascot – Barsanti (115) = WON at 1.96
    14:30 Lingfield – Kew Gardens (110) = 2nd at 8/11
    15:50 Nottingham – Pretty Baby (100) = WON at 1.90
    18:45 Thirsk – Stonific (81) = WON at 4.10

    3/6 and +1.71pts ==> 13/47 (27.66%) for -6.97pts (-14.83%)

    Better day on Saturday, going to need more like it…

    MONDAY :
    16:50 Kempton – Regulation (121)
    18:00 Towcester – Bassarabad (116) ***NO BET, unless other is a NR***
    18:00 Towcester – Definitly Grey (116) ***NO BET, unless other is a NR***
    18:20 Windsor – Silent Echo (91)
    17:10 Catterick – Landing Night (77)
    15:25 Wolverhampton – River Glades (77)

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