Members Daily Post: 10/05/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Chester

5.05 – Abareeq (micro class) I1 10/1 S6  UP

*

JUMPS

Worcester

2.45 – Alf N Dor (hncp c + m class) w1 H3  9/2 2nd 

5.25 – Casterly Rock (all hncps) ES+ H3 I3 7/2 S3A UP

Huntingdon

3.45 – 

Doitforjoe (all hncps) w2  16/1 S2A UP

Bandon Roc (hncp h) w1 H1 8/1 UP

4.15 – Le Capricieux (hncp h) 16/1 S2A

4.45- Utility (nov hncps) I3 5/1 UP

Wincanton

5.50 – 

Garo De Juilley (hncp h) 14,30 ES+ 10/1 S2 S3A 2nd 

Balibour (hncp h) 12/1 S2 

Secret Door (m1) 14  H3 I3 4/1 UP

6.50 – 

Swincombe Scorchio (all hncps) 14/1 S2 UP

Gentleman Jon (hncp chase) ES+ H3 I3 11/2 S3A WON 11/2>5/1 

Theatrical Star (hncp chase) ES+  I3 7/1 S3A  UP

8.20 – Lizzie Langton (m1) ES 7/2 S3 UP

*

KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HERE      Jumps 2017/18: HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 22nd April 2018)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 22nd April 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’ ‘aka Tips’  (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 9/92,31p, +19.5)  (1 point win bets) (Festival Tips 2018: +101.5)

NOTES

5.05 Chester – Abareeq – 1 point win – 9/1 (gen)

6.20 Winc- Overawed – 1 point win – 9/1 (gen)

That will be all for tips. 

Abareeq… this one does look most interesting from Section 1 above, at the prices, to my eyes at least. This is a high class horse on the AW, of C2 ability, and one day he will transfer that to turf and win cosily enough from this mark. He was only just caught on the line two starts back at Chelmsford off 97, running off 85 here on grass. If we ignore 2016 when he was only 3 and probably still developing, all his turf runs last year were in very hot class 2s. I have watched that Epsom run back, where he handled the bend well but not so much the camber, and he cruised through that and was the last off the bridle. Sadly he had a wall of horses in front of him, was switched, hung slightly, looked tricky on that track, and still couldn’t get a gap. He was allowed to coast home hands and heels. It showed he has the ability for me on turf, certainly to travel at C2 pace over 10f. Dropped into a C3 here, and back on decent ground, from a good draw, i’d hope we would see his best turf run to date. There were also some further stats to back up his case… Johnston is 14/53,23p + 14 in 10f Chester handicaps the last 5 years. 7/27,13p when Franny is on. 5/10,6p in class 3 10f Chester handicaps. Johnston is 7/21,7p in 10f handicaps here with horses returning within 10 days from last start, (4/10 with Franny on) 3/5 when that is C3. So, there are some further stats there to back up Johnstons overall handicap stats in Class 3 here for the last 3 years, which is what the horse qualifies against in Section 1. I can’t think he would have relished soft at Ascot the last day,nor the 8f. There is little to no pace on paper in this and I don’t think it will be strongly run- something will have to change style or it will turn into a sprint. The Best horse can make all and maybe SDS will be able to get out and dictate. Franny clearly knows his way around here and should have him in the right spot, maybe they will switch it up and try and make all on him. In any case, I thought there was plenty to like at 9/1.

Overawed… the fav does look strong in this at 2/1 IF backing up that last start – as yet he has never backed up one good run with another so hopefully he isn’t in the mood! This becomes a very open race if that’s the case. This George chaser is unexposed in general, being only her 5th run in a handicap, second in a handicap chase. She returned LTO after 100 odd days off, over 19f. She ran as if probably needing it and/or the trip may stretch her, and there is also a chance she doesn’t want any soft in the going. She returns 18 days later here, should strip fitter, Paddy B takes over, drops in trip, and runs on proper decent ground for the first time in a handicap. (that run over 20f at Worcester was on seasonal debut and ran as if needing it/20f too far… you can make genuine excuses for all runs really) Her maiden run at Ludlow on good ground over 16f suggests she has some ability and I do like when trainers don’t hang around over hurdles when they think their horse wants fences. Her odds/jockey booking LTO suggest not much was expected, so it will be interesting what the market does here. Any drift and I may prepare for the worst. Paddy will be aggressive on here I suspect and at 9/1, given that profile, i’ll take a chance on this one from the Test Zone below. It could be she is just moderate but this run will tell us plenty more.

*

Hmm, that Newton Abbot race didn’t go to plan! A couple of winners for the Chester notes being the only ‘highlight’ of the day and I only backed one of those for beer money. I won’t dwell on the two tips but I will touch on the winner, Unsafe Conduct, for ‘educational purposes’ (or in other words, as I stare out the window, how did I not mention him as a danger!) At this time of year he has just the sort of profile that should interest us and were he a stats qualifier in Section 1, just the sort of horse I should be tipping.. lightly raced/’could be anything’ still and his first run in a handicap hurdle on decent ground. They had raced him last autumn on decent ground, sent off at all prices in novice races, suggesting he was a longer term project/had maybe not strengthened up as yet/still inexperienced. This year to date, since returning in Jan, he had raced ‘in the slop’ but there was promise in his run at Bangor LTO, given he hit the front two out before falling in a hole. Today he got a tongue tie for the first time, returned to good ground for the first time in a handicap, powerful connections who rarely keep totally useless animals and he dropped into a C5..not withstanding that he’d been racing against winter oppo and was now against the summer horses. They let him carry 12-4 here as he was 2lb above the 0-100 ceiling, but the new rules allow that. The ‘top weight’ (11-12) was OR 96, 4lb below the ceiling, which meant he had to carry 6lb more, 12-4… to do that with this sort of profile suggests the Tizzard’s thought they had plenty up their sleeve- given the other option would be to run him in the next class up, with less weight, and/or get his rating down so he could carry 11-12 in a 0-100 in a couple of runs time. I did actually think all of that pre race, nearer the off, once I saw the money come and thought I’d missed something, so at least i’m improving, sort of! He ended up drifting back out to a decent price. Next time. But that’s the sort of winner which makes plenty of sense when you think about it, and there will be more like that in the coming weeks no doubt- those that have been getting stuck in the mud and as yet may not have had ideal conditions in a handicap. Whether I find any, or highlight them as dangers, we shall see! Those from big yards deserve particular attention. 

*

RESULTS:

Results Update 

Weekly Results Update (last two weeks)

Results Update: Summary below, link in Key for Jumps + Flat Strategies will be updated ASAP

Weekly Results Update: Advised Strategies 23^rd April- 6th May

Summary

Weekly TOTAL (advised strategies) (Section 1):

• JUMPS – S1 (0/1,0p, -1) S2 (1/17,2p, -1) S2A (0/9,0p, -9) S3 (0/3,1p, -3) S3A (4/12,6p, +16.5) S4 (1/5,2p, -1.75) S5 (1/8,p,+5)
• FLAT 2018: S1 (3/8,2p, +6.25) S2 (3/13,6p, +1.55) S3A (3/18,10p,0) S4 (2/6,3p, +4.25) S5 (2/9,3p, +3.5) S6 (1/16,5p, -9)

TEST ZONE (Jumps angles) : 6/26,9p, +13.2

‘In Form Horses’ (won LTO or two runs ago, backed once if both a W1+W2)

• Jumps: 1/11,4p, -3.5
• Flat: 5/23,7p, +5.8

Handicap Debut (jumps+flat): 0/2,1p, -2

S3A Double/Treble rated (jumps+flat): 1/5,3p, +0.5

**

CHESTER MAY MEETING 2018 

Report HERE>>>

Day 2 

‘Qualifiers’ against any of my notes listed in the report above, to be used as starting points…

1.50 – Doctor Sardonicus (also micro if 8/1<) / Reflektor / Powerallied (12/1<) (stall) / Tavener (stall)

2.25 – Finniston Farm (8/1<)

3.00- Dragons Tail / Tadleel

4.05 – Finoah / Swift Justice / Ynys Mon (stall)

4.35 – Berkshire Royal

5.05 – Mulligatawny (stall) / Dark Devil (stall)

**

Chester ‘through the card’ 

Doug is off to the races I believe and he asked me to have a flick through. I haven’t had time to record a video sadly. As always, the usual caveats- this is a very brief look and it usually goes one of two ways! But, i have used some of the pointers above, ratings, the geegeez cards, pace/draw etc as usual… (apparently any rain isn’t meant to change the going, so we shall see if the clerk is correct on that or not)

1.50 – Doctor Sardonicus / Power Allied

2.25 – Rastrelli

3.00 – Another Batt / Caffe Macchiato

3.35 – Fav

4.05 – Fav – Ynys Mon

4.35 – Austrian School

5.05 – Abareeq / Dark Devil (change on Mulligatowny maybe)

PLEASE NOTE!!

I am off to Dublin at lunchtime through until Sunday afternoon. As always you won’t see any difference to the core systematic sections (Section 1 + test zone) but bear with me on times, there may be more posted in the mornings, most likely with a sore head!  One day i’ll ‘train’ someone/pay them to complete those bits, so I can take a proper day off or three, but until that point, the trusty lap-top will be with me and for what is probably around the 650th+ day in a row in the members’ club, you’ll get Section 1 + Test Zone as a minimum. 🙂