Members Daily Post: 09/05/18 (complete)

Notes (x2) Section 1 (comp) , Test Zone, Chester stats/QUALIFIERS

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT

Chester

5.05 – Storm Ahead (micro distance)  25/1  UP

 

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JUMPS

Kelso

2.35 – Black Jack Rover (nov hncps) (hncp c debut) I1 7/2 S5 (IF 11.00+ BFSP)  UP

3.10 – Elmono (m2) I3 10/1 S2 S5 

 

Fontwell

5.10 – 

Vexillum (all hncps + hncp h) ES+ 25/1 S2A S3A  UP

Howlongisafoot (m1) 14,30  6/1 2nd 

Project Mars (m1) H1 I1  4/1 UP

7.15 – Lee Side Lady (all hncps) ES+ I3 13/2 S3A S5 (IF 11.00+ BFSP) 

8.15 – Bit Of Blinding (NHF) 3/1 

 

Newton Abbot 

 

4.25 –

Pointed And Sharp (hncp h) I3 9/2 UP

Watcombe Heights (m2) H3 7/1  UP

4.55 – Fourth Act (m2) I3 8/1 UP

5.25 – 

Come On Charlie (hncp h) (handicap h debut)  7/1  UP

Ice Tres (m1) w1 14 H1 9/1  UP

Glimpse of Gold (m2) I3  20/1 S2A S5  UP

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 22nd April 2018)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 22nd April 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’ ‘aka Tips’  (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 9/92,31p, +19.5)  (1 point win bets) (Festival Tips 2018: +101.5)

NOTES

5.25 Newton A

Ice Tres – 1 point win – 9/1 (WH/PP/BV) 8/1 (gen) UP

Glimpse of Gold – 1 point win – 16/1 (gen) UP

(he won’t be declared at 16s when he wins! that price has gone rather quick,10s still about in places, and he may well drift back out) 

That will be all for tips. 

 

Ice Tres… well I know she’s 9 but she has hardly ever raced in what appear ‘ideal conditions’ given that she is now 2/4 in good ground handicap hurdles which looks rather decent against her overall record! She bounced back to form on good ground the last day at Taunton, the front two quite a way clear. She has won off OR100 before, at Newton Abbot in a C4 Novice Handicap Hurdle, so I won’t be blaming her mark- of course something else could have more in hand, but she can win from 89, no issue. I just thought 8s/9s was generous for one clearly in good form, with course form, jockey is in form, trainer is in form, and what swayed it was the fact she races prominently, and will try and lead. I don’t think she has to, and James Bowen may have something to say about that – although there is a chance that back down to 16f, on Good,around this track, that he isn’t quick enough – I hope so anyway, although as another LTO winner he is a danger. As ‘exposed’ horses go, I thought this one ticked all the boxes really, and i’d have been a tad annoyed had I not had a go were she to make all again, at those odds.

Glimpse Of Gold…there appears to be some money around for this one, which is never a bad sign but it’s the 10 mins before the race that usually tell the full story. This one came alive in April/May last year and I’m hoping he does so again. His two handicap hurdle wins were both on decent ground and given it was heavy LTO, he ran really well. He arrives in form, to my eye at least, having run well in unsuitable conditions, and on the back of a failed attempt at chasing. Both this one and Ice Tres stood out somewhat on Geegeez Instant expert tab which I suppose was my starting point for being tempted in (with the initial starting point being Section 1 above). This one is 1/3,3p on good ground in handicap hurdles, 2/7,3p going LH which appears to be his preferred direction. The jockey booking is intriguing…I’m not sure a positive but at least he’s ridden him before. Vaughan has 3 at Fontwell and it appears Johns has gone there instead, which simply could be due to the number of rides, or they fancy one of those more. At 16s or so I was happy to have a dart.

I have had a ‘saver’ on Bee An Aristocrat 7s, given he chased home Ice Tres LTO and gets a 4lb pull. I rather hope Ice Tres can get away around this track and the line comes in time but if not hopefully the Vaughan horse collars her (well,that’s preferable at the odds!) and if neither win, this one takes the spoils. It will be beans on toast for me this evening if not. Hobbs is 2/6,3p with his handicap debutants here so his clearly is a danger. I thought there may be a few too many in form/more interesting hardy handicappers in here, but he may improve for the good ground. There wasn’t a distance move which deterred me slightly, and the ground is unknown, as is the track etc. Which made 7s that sort of ‘on the fence’ price.

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Yesterday was ‘OK’…hopefully some of you backed Max Forte, either from reading my musings or indeed following Nick! (who was unlucky not to have a big big priced double- i’m pretty sure that Williams horse was winning, before ducking out two from home, given how he pinged the flight before, and how the race finished- the 1-2 going up and down on the spot) I got Max wrong in terms of full confidence but I did back him as per notes, and even after the hefty R4 it was still 7.8/1 if getting 12s or so. I will endeavour to use the Italics Underline  , as with Bee An Aristocrat above, as some indication whether there is a danger/other horse I fancy/have backed but for some reason haven’t had my full tipping stake on. As always, you can use that info as you please. Washed Ashore looked like the winner for the free post tip, in the Norfolk National..he would have won for me at a decent enough 6/1, but landed steeply after the last and sprawled on landing. Frustrating but that’s racing and both jockey and horse were fine which is the main thing. I was overdue some bad luck at the last fence, having had a chunk of good fortune in the Irish National I think.

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Handicap Chase System Starting Points (10/1< best)

5.45 Font- Chill In The Wood

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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CHESTER MAY MEETING 2018 

Report HERE>>>

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Day 1

‘Qualifiers’ against any of my notes listed in the report above, to be used as starting points…

1.50 – Dark Thunder UP/ Jensue UP (TD micro IF 8/1<)

3.00 – Formidable Kitt UP / Spoof (stall stats) WON 11/2  / Showmethedough (stall) UP

3.35 – Proschema UP

4.05 – Argentello 3rd 

4.35 – No Im easy UP/ Requinto Dawn (12/1<) UP / Gabrial The Saint (12/1<) WON 13/2  / Mr Top Hat 2nd 

5.05 – Cheerfilly UP  (also  micro IF 8/1<)/ Intransigent

(if you think i’ve missed any, do shout!)

I have no strong views on any of those above, having had a quick flick through…not races i’d usually play in that often… I thought Spoof looked most interesting, and Requinto Dawn – Bungee Jump is the only out and out front runner in that, drawn to attack- whether he is good enough who knows, but anything can happen in these 3YO handicaps and they will have to catch him. Maybe worth a very small interest at 11s+ to see if he can hold on. (cue missing the break!)

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RESULTS:

Results Update 

Weekly Results Update (last two weeks)

Results Update: Summary below, link in Key for Jumps + Flat Strategies will be updated ASAP

Weekly Results Update: Advised Strategies 23rd April- 6th May

Summary

Weekly TOTAL (advised strategies) (Section 1):

  • JUMPS – S1 (0/1,0p, -1) S2 (1/17,2p, -1) S2A (0/9,0p, -9) S3 (0/3,1p, -3) S3A (4/12,6p, +16.5) S4 (1/5,2p, -1.75) S5 (1/8,p,+5)
  • FLAT 2018: S1 (3/8,2p, +6.25) S2 (3/13,6p, +1.55) S3A (3/18,10p,0) S4 (2/6,3p, +4.25) S5 (2/9,3p, +3.5) S6 (1/16,5p, -9)

TEST ZONE (Jumps angles) : 6/26,9p, +13.2

‘In Form Horses’ (won LTO or two runs ago, backed once if both a W1+W2)

  • Jumps: 1/11,4p, -3.5
  • Flat: 5/23,7p, +5.8

Handicap Debut (jumps+flat): 0/2,1p, -2

S3A Double/Treble rated (jumps+flat): 1/5,3p, +0.5

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

46 Responses

  1. Early one as price going: Sultan Baybars Chester Wednesday 17:05 1pt e/w Price taken 9/1 4 places but now best 8/1

    1. Another nice winner Nick and looked very unlucky with the other selection who looked to be mounting a challenge when jinking.

      Chris R.

  2. GOLF BETS
    The Players Tournament
    Additional bet been on my mind all day
    Ian Poulter 1 point ew 66/1 1/5 8 BW 66/1 1/5 7 BO plenty of 66/1 with different terms
    Top of his game with a recent win at Houston and 7th at Harbour Town,this is his course over 14 starts which as included two seconds and at 66/1 had to put him up.

  3. AW racing comes from Wolves tomorrow. Qualifiers as follows:

    6.55 Ebqaa 16/1 (still one at 25/1 but I’ll proof to 16s) & French Mix 11/2
    7.25 Worth Waiting 9/1
    8.25 Energia Flavio 8/1
    8.55 Furni Factors 7/1 & Funkadelic 8/1
    1pt win each

    Good Luck

  4. Hi folks, another nice few winners today. Tomorrow picks
    Neola
    Clein wells
    Scotswell
    Stay in the light
    Annie irish
    Berry de carjac

    1. Hi Jarrod, you are racking up a good few winners in recent days! Inc that 66/1 monster. You know I’ll ask for a P/L at some point if you keep posting haha. I imagine that’s looking healthy! … aware you don’t always have time for reasoning etc…but is there a general method to your madness? 🙂

      1. Well over the last 5days I’ve had 66/1, 50/1(including the exacta £744) 25/1,16/1 x2,14/1, 8/1 plus a number of placed horse…. I won’t go into the crazy cash out offers by 365 especially with yesterday’s 6. Seems like a few others fancy a few of mine…. Would like to think it’s stable/ owners. So far I’m looking at almost 165 points over 5 days. Fingers crossed for today.

    2. Hi Jarrod, hope you don’t mind me asking, but do you back these as singles or EW?? New to this group and learning so much from you guys and the tips you guys post, damn!!

  5. Chester
    Tom Dascombe Trained | Richard Kingscote ridden | 5f – 7f | Good to Soft ground or quicker | SP 12-1 or shorter

    Since 2013 that has returned.

    22/66 | 33% S/R | +£50.16 BFLSP – W&P 42/66 | 64% S/R

    4 fit the criteria tomorrow

    1:50 Dark Thunder 6/1
    3:00 Formidable kitt 4/1
    4:35 No I’m easy 9/2
    5:05 Cheerfilly 10/1

    1. Good stuff Warren…always state the source,esp if from a friend of RTP…think that one’s from my good friend Ben Aitken 🙂 such snippets are usually him or Gavin P, Geegeez Chris or if not somewhere I don’t currently look so do point the way! And apols if that’s all your own doing but think I read something similar on his free post earlier.

      1. Yes it was from an email narrow the field by ben. I get so many emails with you could win this or win that from so many sources that I usually ignore them. But occasionally I get sent something worth Sharing. In this case it was from ben. My bad for not mentioning him. Flipside if non win it’s now his fault not mine lol.

        1. I forget who it came from but I like – Chester, 5F, stalls 1 and 2. The 1.50 today gives us a 66/1 shot and a 16/1 shot. Gingersdunthelot and Jensue.

          1. Interesting re: the draw over 5f at Chester, Martin.

            I’ve got it down as stalls 2 & 3 , though. Plus that’s obviously discounting running style.
            As a mathematician, I’d want a fast starter in stall 3 as an ideal bet, as the angle to the first bend becomes better than the rail draw.

          2. I like one in stall one over 5F who can break well and nudge to the right ala Greyhound style. I get stall three because of the angle to the bend. But I like my system long term and we shall see how it goes this week re draw?

          3. Interestingly looking at the trends on an individual race basis the 13:50 and 15:00 today (both 5f) it is not profitable to back stalls 1 and 2 blindly but in the 16:35 (6f) both 1 and 2 can be backed blindly. Stall 3 has been poor for all 3 races but stall 5 good for both the 5f races. (stall 4 also in 15:00 but not the 13:50) make of that what you will but does seem to suggest they go off too fast from the first 3 stalls over 5f.

          4. Yes maybe, based upon these two races. Stall 3 beats stall 1 in the 3.00. We will see how it goes this season rather than just at this meeting.

  6. SUNDAY’S EARLY SEASON MAIDENS :
    4.10 Newmarket – Fly The Nest 2nd @ 5/2
    4.20 Hamilton – Valentino Dancer WON @ 2.16

    TUESDAY :
    2.20 Thirsk – Makawee u/p @ 8/1
    2.20 Thirsk – Margies Choice 2nd at 5/2
    4.25 Thirsk – Liamba u/p at 14/1

    4/25 (16% SR) for a loss of 10.6pts at BFSP (-42.4% ROI) so far this season.

    WEDNESDAY :
    4.05 Chester – Argentello

  7. TUESDAY’S SUMMER JUMPERS :
    3.45 Fakenham – Some Kinda Lama u/p
    4.45 Fakenham – Master Workman u/p
    5.30 Ludlow – Djarkevi 2nd at 4/1
    6.30 Ludlow – Nightfly WON at 5.56
    7.30 Ludlow – Scented Lily u/p

    WEDNESDAY :
    5.25 Newton Abbot – Franz Klammer
    5.45 Fontwell – Royals And Rebels
    7.45 Fontwell – Zen Master

  8. Morning All

    TTP for N.Abb

    3.55 – Ballybolley……all Hc’s

    4.25 – Pointed and Sharp………..HcH
    English Pale………..HcH
    Cleni Wells…….micro’s class, age
    Flight to Milan…….micro dist

    5.25 – Come On Charlie……….HcH
    Russian Spy…….micro dist
    Aaryam……….HcH

    Mike

    1. TAKE NO NOTICE OF ABOVE IN CASE JOSH HAS UPDATED HIS SUMMER STATS. SORRY FOR CONFUSION
      Mike

      1. cheers Mike, ahh, we know what happens now haha. Yep I have refreshed it etc, and I try to never look at old guides again as it can only lead to mental anguish as trainer’s i’ve binned after a bad year or two storm back to life!
        Josh

  9. Having another crack at the McCreery/Lee combos today, all at Gowran Park:
    17:35 Frieheit untraced
    18:35 Bloomfield
    19:05 Bated Beauty
    20:05 Wild as the Wind

  10. GOLDEN INVESTMENT 6/1
    think this may be one of josh’s stats but brian hughes riding for d. mcain jr ( only in handicaps) and also now nicely down in the handicap after fourth last time, will be suited by this better ground and longer trip .

  11. 1pt lost yesterday but close to getting some EW money back in 2 of the other races. Back today with a few from my systems, plus I will be positing my top 3 rated horses for the ITV races at Chester later in the free post. This uses my trends, pace and draw approach which found 2 out of the 4 winners at the weekend.

    14:25 Chester – Magic Wand (7/2 gen) 1pt WIN
    14:25 Chester – Award Winning (7/1 gen) 1pt EW

    15:35 Chester – Hunting Horn (7/2 Bet365, 3/1 gen) 1pt WIN
    15:35 Chester – Perfect Illusion (28/1 Coral, 25/1 gen) 1pt EW

    16:05 Chester – Baritone (10/3 gen) 1pt WIN
    16:05 Chester – Infrastructure (bits of 9/1 but odds shortening so may not last) 1pt EW

    19:25 Wolver – Strange Society (9/1 gen) 1pt EW

    That’s all from me today.

  12. Karl Burke is a bit hit and miss at the moment,Stay in The Light 6.25 Wolv has shown nothing to suggest a win is near but Lee has a healthy profit at track,has drifted to 20/1 which could be bad or mean nothing with his runners,so 1 pt win 20/1

    May Total-5pts

  13. No runners today, but Kevin Ryan’s 2 & 3 yr olds tend to go well at Chester and his yard is in decent form right now.

    He’s 8 from 30 (26.7% SR) for 28.7pts (+95.7% ROI) at SP & 36.33pts (+121.1% ROI) at betfair SP over the last 11 days, whilst at Chester, those 2/3 yr olds are 10 from 34 (29.4% SR) for 25.2pts (+74.1%ROI) at BFSP over the last 4 seasons.

    Of those 34 2/3 yr olds…
    sent off shorter than 10/1 ISP : 10/24 (41.7%) for 35.2pts (+146.6%)
    over 7f to 10.5 f : 8/21 (38.1%) for 19.5pts (+93%)
    Class 4 : 7/19 (36.8%) for 22.5pts (+118.3%)

    Class 4 / 7-10.5f / below 10-1 ISP = 6 from 9 (66.6%) for 20.55pts (+228.3%) at betfair SP.

    Might be worth a look.

  14. Any one heard of BYRON HUBBARD
    Just received a text todays free bet is a maximum and i mean a maximum!!
    3.35 Chester Hunting Horn has been working out of his skin at home,we believe he will win this before moving on to far bigger and better things!!

    Surprise,Surprise
    Favourite Aiden O’Brien and Ryan Moore

    1. what a load of nonsense haha. i mean I don’t need a mole in the O’Brien yard to realise that a horse beaten 1 and 1/4 L in a G3 LTO 12 days ago, with Moore on, the blue blood, connections, to know that he may have a chance! (and if I bothered to look I could prob find a trainer quote relating to the horse in public domain) Suspect the Appleby/Haggas/Dascombe horses have also been working quite well at home and are expected to go onto better things!! Beggars belief. May well hack up, but at least ‘Byron’ ‘knew’ !! 🙂

    2. I believe this man is using info. from a daily, expensive, report produced in Newmarket with info primarily from yards there and Lambourn and trying to make an income, having bought it.

    3. It is not me! I am on the horse at 66/1 for The Derby and would like Hunting Horn to run well so that I can lay some off. Never heard of him at all?? Maybe a pseudonym for someone who is in poor form at present. That happens.

    4. Sounds like a name from the USA who promulgated formula’s on economics in the 50s…lol..He went to our school and was in the daft class Colin.
      Tony Mc.

      1. It bugged me why the name seemed familiar, when I first got an email a few days ago; now it’s come to me whilst cooking lunch. L Ron Hubbard was the scientology man, so is there some sort of code ‘By Ron Hubbard’?

    5. That went pretty much according to script. I can imagine how many loser tipsters put that one up as a bet. One of those ‘all the dogs are barking’ horses.

  15. I remember years ago a Newmarket mole called Tony Jackobson i think. He used to start his calls by saying ‘ Tony here on the Newmarket gallops’, and then talk the biggest Billy Sollocks you have ever heard. Stay well clear of these people they know less than me and you.

    1. He was the Newmarket ‘correspondent’ of the RP, who later added the tipping line to his workload. He seemed to like favourites.

  16. Decided to add one more:
    Requinto Dawn Chester 16:35 1pt e/w-Price taken 13/2 3p 1/4 and 6/1 4p 1/5 split stakes-Tipped LTO when he was second to a horse which has followed up in a class 2 non-handicap beating a 102 rated horse whilst giving him 3lbs. He fits all the Fahey stats including those drawn 1/2. Last time out it looked like the step up to 6f should suit. You can back anything in stalls 1 and 2 blindly in this race and still make a profit. Has often raced prominently so hopefully they will do the same here from a good draw. He has now drifted to an e/w price and looked like a solid bet.

    1. Jesus im picking up things without realising it I all ready backed that one Nick I hate to suggest the writing could be on the wall

  17. Tips – I like Formidable Kitt in the 3.00 CHE for 2 points at 11/2. Looks well handicapped after running in listed class.

  18. Chester – i can’t help but think that the cut away as they enter the home straight may scupper the draw stats??? but am unsure if thats a new initiative this year or not.

    1. Well they stood up pretty well for Spoof! 🙂 enhancing those stall 3 over 5f stats as per report. I’m sure that’s been in operation for a while now but i could be wrong.

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