Members Daily Post: 04/05/18 (complete)

TIPS x1 Section 1 (comp)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Musselburgh

2.40 – 

Royal Brave (all hncps) ES+  H3 I3  9/2 S3A WON 9/2 

Pea Shooter (all hncps) w2  16/1  UP

3.10- 

Donnelly’s Rainbow (all hncps) ES+ G3 20/1 S3A  3rd 20/1 

5.15 – 

Gone With The Wind (all hncp) w2 ES+ G3 9/1 S3A  3rd 

Palace Ball (4yo+) (handicap debut) 20/1  UP

 

Chepstow 

2.00 – Bombero (all hncps) H3 G3 7/2 S5 WON 9/2 

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 22nd April 2018)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 22nd April 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’ ‘aka Tips’  (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 7/83,29p, +7.5)  (1 point win bets) (Festival Tips 2018: +101.5)

NOTES

5.15 Muss – Palace Ball – 1 point win – 25/1 (gen)  UP – I think we can put him in the ‘not very good’ category! It be fascinating to see if Mick can work his magic on him at all, but you’d certainly want to see him show more before ever wading in again! Maybe he needs even further or is taking a very long time to get to grips with the racing game. 

Well the whole point of this ‘notes’ approach, which is a different mindset to what I used to have when agonising over a ‘tip of the day’ is to go ‘sod it’ with horses like this, let’s have a go. Every now and then the pin will land on a 20s+ shot that has a profile just like this one. This horse has his second start for Mick Easterby here, his second run of the season, he makes handicap debut, returns to turf, steps up in trip, a jockey switch and is in the ‘could be anything’ category. I suspect we may not see much today and he could just be moderate full stop, but Mick tends to buy very well from other yards so he must have seen something with his stockman’s eye. The stats suggest he may have switched things up with handicap debutants and maybe that’s the influence of his son David, who appears to be a chip of the old block and is very involved now. In any case, since the start of 2016 he is 3/24,11p with handicap debutants, including second places at 16s, 20s, 33s. It may be wise to have an EW wager on this one. He is3/17,8p on turf with such types in that time, 3/9,6p in class 5 and 6. Very micro, but promising, and that will highlight winners down the line. Odds don’t seem to matter with the Easterby clan, they tend to all in at all prices, more a case of really taking note when the money comes, rather than being perturbed when it doesn’t. Finally… trainer and jockey are 6/24,14p at Muss in handicaps, +21 in the last 5 years. 2/8,4p in the class. So, as always, there is some method. He tends to be held up and from that draw probably will be again. Hopefully I get a run for my money but anything could happen. It looks an open enough race on paper to me, very winnable. Gone With The Wind…he is 0/13 on turf that is good/good to firm…his record suggests he needs cut on grass but we shall see if he turns that profile on it’s head. 

That’s all for tips. 

Yesterday’s poke ran well enough, another place. If I can hit 29 wins/places every 83 bets I strike I will have no worries for the rest of 2018 as enough will go in and at the odds I play at I don’t need many. He broke well enough, got a decent position and just wasn’t good enough on the day, two better handicapped horses ahead of him. A decent run though from the old boy. The winner was getting his head in front for the first time since August 2016 and I can always leave those at 7/2 but given his mark and various efforts, it wasn’t a shock. The second ran well and he has a sprint handicap or two in him. 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

None.

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

I am so happy. Blessed. What a girl. If I could bottle that feeling of elation I would. It can’t really be matched. Sheer joy. Lemos has made all the difference there. He’s been injured for an age but being Amy’s partner, and in effect stable jockey for all flat horses, does plenty of work on her. She looked a picture pre race, the best in the line up by a mile. She was ‘on it’ – revved up but not too keen. She walked into the stalls and broke on terms. The first time she’s done that since her debut win. She had strengthened up for her winter break and needed the run LTO. Tonight she has broke on terms, tracked the pace and settled after 1.5f or so having been keen, and then she has fought like a tiger, wanting to win. The step up to 6f has worked as hoped and she will win again. It’s a great group in the syndicate and Amy/Lemos were drinking plenty with us a good 2 hours after the race had finished. It doesn’t get better in this game! (oh and there are 4 shares free if you want one) (oh and she went off 16s! and ‘the gang’ has had a fair wedge on her between us. What a game) 

Happy horse this morning… 

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Trainer Track Profiles: Flat 2018:  LINK to follow later today. I’ll get Goodwood and Hamilton complete first.

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

28 Responses

  1. From Nick,

    Fethiye Boy Musselburgh Friday 14:40 1pt e/w Price taken 16/1
    Duke Cosimo Newcastle Friday 20:05 1pt e/w Price taken 7/1

  2. Congratulations Josh on your win,

    Betting on Irish racing comes with a huge health warning but I am having a punt in the 6.30 at Cork on Deor 1pt win 10/1. Davy Russel is 5/11 when riding For John Kiely over hurdles,runs another one here too in 5.55 Decision Time,so hopefully i’m on the right one.
    Roger Fell runs 2 at Musselburgh.They don’t fit Josh’s recommended strategy but at the prices
    Horome 2.40 1pt win 20/1 generally(got 25/1 bet365,may drift again in morning)
    Count Montecristo 3.10 1 pt win11/1 generally
    Karl Burke has a few runners at track too,Four Kingdoms just too short at 9/2

    May -2pts

    1. Yes, I backed the Count over night (drop in trip/class) and Harome is now an EW bet after the withdrawal of the favourite. Was able to get 11/2 Four Ks too.

  3. COLBALTY ISLE 3.10 muss runs for keith dalgleish looks really intresting here three maiden runs for henry candy then three all weather runs for keith dalgleish to get its mark down to 68 from 76 also declared at chester may meeting next week today should be a stepping stone to next week

  4. Congratulations Josh. Great to see BTE coming on. Lovely race. Bet you were sweating on the result for a few minutes? That was a close one.

    I don’t suppose I can come anywhere near to the feeling you had last night but yesterdays three winners was a close second. Winners at 25/1, 12/1 & 6/1 gave us a profit of 36pts on the day. Nice to get ahead of the curve early in the month. Let’s hope it continues that way.

    Two of those winners were BOG, so it pays to look for BOG even if the price is a bit lower at the time of placing.

    Two AW meetings today at Lingfield and Newcastle. Qualifiers as follows:

    Lingfield
    2.20 The Night King 18/1
    3.50 Fieldsman 7/1 & Arctic Sea 9/2
    4.20 Culloden 11/2 & Billy’s Boots 12/1
    4.50 Pollyisimo 13/2 & Diablery 11/1

    Newcastle
    None

    1pt win each.

    Good Luck

  5. Hi Josh,

    Just wanted to add my congratulations on BTE. She ran a great race and showed herself as a tough little filly. An a shareholder of some dross in a previous life (pre-wife & kids!!) who never came close to bothering the judge, I got as much excitement out of watching that as anything I had seen before (the fact that I had a few quid on her might have helped 😉

    Cheers

    Ben

  6. Cheers all, it was some night, I can’t really explain that feeling.
    The group was jumping around prematurely- about 1/2 a furlong out!- as I stood there staring at the screen, convinced the second had done us on the bob. When the photo was announced it was incredible. 6f will be her trip now I think and we shall see if she can progress any further. We will run her back on grass at some point when the ground is decent and all of us want a trip to Chester! I’m not sure shed get in anything up there just yet. Fillies/mares are the way forwards for syndicates I think…she was worth 15k or so after her debut win, as a broodmare, given her bloodlines, and that will have crept up to 20+ now I suspect, which is roughly what she cost.
    Really Super… she isn’t running at Goodwood now, having tied up earlier in the week- a build up of lactic acid etc. She should be fine in a few days… Amy has described her as the best handicapped horse, on the flat, in the country. Given her placed form for Beckett and how those races have worked out, and knowing how much she has grown in the last 4 months, it’s not hard to see why. Blessed definitely always wants to do her best for you, even if she is stroppy pre race at times/in the stalls…Really Super..we are not 100%! We will find the key to her and she will bolt up when we do, a few times, both on the flat and over hurdles. She could be smart – and there are still shares available in her also!

    Josh

  7. COLINS BETS
    Musselburgh
    2.40 Suwaan
    3.10 Zoravan
    Chepstow
    4.30 Kinglami
    Newcastle
    5.45 Rainbow Rebel
    6.20 Supreme Power
    7.30 Robero
    8.05 Aguerooo
    8.05 Tigerwolf
    Lets hope the tide turns in our favor today and Musselburg are honest with their GD/FM going.

  8. Firstly congrats to both Ken and Josh.
    Ken stormed back with three winners inc a 25/1 SP shot, gaining circa 40 points on the day. And to Josh for his racehorse owning success on the sand.

    Tips – we lost another 2 points yesterday with a laclustre effort. We are now down 10 points in May. Today we go with a shortie and one for the 2000 Guineas. 5.45 NC Elysees Palace goes for Sir Mark and we will have 3 points win at 5/4 BOG. I am on Masar at 5/1 for the 2000 Guineas for 2 points . A very impressive winner LTO he can step forward here.

    Good luck.

  9. Josh
    No better feeling than in the winners enclosure after your horse as won everyone happy.

  10. Hi Josh, congrats at winning with Blessed To Empress. Hope you had a great time. I did have 5win and 10plc at Bfair SP so happy days.
    I too have shares in horses with Enigma (KRN) only between syndicates but we get all the trimmings, owners badges prize money etc. All good fun.
    Be lucky
    Richard

    1. haha, be patient, he may climb to that price nearer the off, holding steady around 20s across board. I mean if he does drift that big on exchange, given his profile, then I prob won’t get very excited at any stage through race! I’d like to see him hold steady if nothing else. They do go in at all prices from yard, but when a handicap debutant goes from 20s to 33s+ say, it never fills you with confidence!

  11. I probably should have added this last night (its been a long week) but in any case the price is bigger now anyhow:

    Pour LAmour Musselburgh 16:10 1pt e/w Price taken 12/1

  12. couple of dabs from me from my Tracker
    1pt each-way PEA SHOOTER, 240 Musselburgh, 9-1 generally
    1pt win VICTORIA BAY, 740 Cork, 4-1 generally

    Reasonings
    Pea Shooter
    2 wins, 6 places from 30 runs in class, both wins off higher marks
    1 win, 2 places from 2 runs at Musselburgh, win off 74, off 69 today
    2 wins, 17 places, 6 places on the ground 2 wins off higher marks

    in the class and on the ground, Pea Shooter is 2 wins, 2 places from 10 starts, all from higher marks, and I can see it being towed into the race, can get 4 places with Skybet

    Victoria Bay
    jumped well when the money was down at Fairyhouse last time and is upped to 3 miles at Cork today. What I saw at Fairyhouse doesn’t put me off her getting 3 miles. She has a 11lb rise in the weights and I’m hoping the step up in trip will negate that

    Jockey at course is 7 wins, 10 places from 22 rides in last year
    Trainer is 2 wins from 3 runners in last 30 days.
    I think she has improvement in her too.

    1. I think Pea Shooter would have been a lot closer if not won it except …I think it was Lydiate lady cut right across it as it was moving up…watch the replay…
      One for the tracker although i think a few winners will come out of this race.

      Tony Mc.

  13. Good day yesterday with Completion showing that stats can be powerful even when form on the day may not be. Nice +4.5pts profit from yesterday. Couple today, short on time as had computer issues so don’t have time for reasoning today.

    4:10 Musselburgh – Royal Cosmic ( 7/2 gen) 1pt WIN
    Falcons Fire (7/1 gen) 1pt EW

    5:15 Musselburgh – Haymarket (12/1 Betfred,Sky, PP going 4places) 0.5pt EW

    1. Adding two in the last race at Musselburgh.

      5:15 Musselburgh – My Valentino (15/2 Bookies paying 4 places) 0.5pt EW
      Gone With The Wind (33/1 Bookies paying 4 places) 0.5pt EW

  14. Don’t normally do Irish racing so caution advised 🙂
    Cork 8:15 Carlian’s Angel 25s 0.5pt ew

    Was 4th of 18 at 2m3f Cork in April 1st at 200/1 so a great run given the odds.
    Went up to 2m 5f at Tramore 2 weeks later and didn’t like the step up in trip

    Down to 2m tonight and i think this trip will suit better.

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