Free Daily Post: 11/04/18 (complete)

nothing from me again today…

Another quiet day, nothing from me. It should pick up from tomorrow. A fun few weeks ahead with some big meetings/races to look forward to.

Josh

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

8 Responses

  1. first test of my Cheltenham theory tomorrow

    To me the Gold cup was a very hard race and I think Might bite is beatable
    he was bottomed on the final hill and I Could be vulnerable

    with the race perfect for e/w plays
    then you have to look at who could take advantage if the favourite bombs
    ground likely to be testing so will have to be 100% to compete.

    Bristol de mai is second favourite and at his best would be a major contender
    as condition are in his favour

    Flopped badly last time and history says he loses the plot as the season goes on
    breathing op may change that but isn’t nail on to run to his best

    definitely Red and Tea for Two both trailed in in the gold cup
    so can’t be having them

    Sizing Codelro looks outclassed
    And Sub Lieutenant had a hard race in the Ryanair

    so that leaves us with 2

    Double Shuffle who hasn’t raced since the King George
    he really appeals as his Kempton form seems to have been written off as a flash in the pan
    he ran Mite Bite Close there and Goes to Aintree a fresh horse where as Mite Bite
    ran in a brutal gold cup
    DS Looks decent e/w value
    Clan des Obeaux is the other horse who could cause a surprise
    an improving 6 year old with Paul Nicholls hasn’t run since 2nd in December
    carrying a big weight in a BiG Cheltenham Handicap
    missed Cheltenham as his stamina for the Gold cup was in doubt
    may not get the 3 miles on soft ground at Aintree he has no form further than 2miles 5f
    but at big prices the young horse may be crying out for the trip

    I never think a young horse progressing is going to be a non stayer unless
    proven

    DOUBLE SHUFFLE looks big at 10/1 and I am going 3 points e/w
    CLAN DES OBEAUX at 16/1 is also in with a chance and 2points e/w

    Mite bite wins if Cheltenham hasn’t left its mark but odds on prices
    don’t appeal

    The main problem for e/w players is the late non runner
    that reduces the e/w terms
    so I wont be playing until 1 hour before the race

    1. Hi Peter,

      I enjoyed reading your post. My view on this race is as always it is about value and price of a runner. I do appreciate that the Gold Cup was a hard race for the front two. However we have had a 4 week gap in 2018 and so the recovery period is longer. Also Hendo would not run Might Bite if he was not OK to go. My tissue has him at 6/4. Bristol De Mai is flattered by some of his form. Equally some of his form is dire. I would not be interested in him at 11/2+. I do not rate Double Shuffle at the top level and so have it at 20/1. Clan Des Obeaux has it to prove at this level and Nicholls does not have a good recent record at the meeting. I have him at 14/1. I would not get involved unless I am hitting those prices or better.
      The trouble you have with waiting until one hour from the off is that the bookmakers will shorten up prices and value will go.

    2. Good write-up Peter, personally the race is a non-bet for me. If pushed on anything it would be Definitely Red who will appreciate the ground and has won over course and distance. Personally too many imponderables to go in, but I’ll be interested in how your picks go.

  2. AW BETS
    Lingfield
    1.40 De Little Engine
    1.40 Rattle On
    2.10Ertidaad
    3.45 Geetanjali
    4.20 Impart
    5.20 Cayuga
    Kempton
    5.45 Live Dangerously
    7.15 Clement
    9.15 Mishaal
    9.15 Porto Ferro

    Anyone new looking on recommend bank of 50 times your stake
    All bets put up have been backed by myself
    All results are recorded at Bookmakers SP
    Feb + 22.225 points
    Mar + 14.166 points
    Apr + 1.125 points so far

    Total + 37.516 or to £10 win + £375.16 at Bookmakers SP

  3. Would you think Attain in the 5.20 has had his fill for the season Colin ? I only ask because he is drifting now I think my normal 2 quid stake on your pick will cover the bet now so best of luck today hopefully one of the 2 wins

    1. Only put up one of my methods and Attain does not fit this method it could easily win with two wins against its name but i am more of a stats man so do not have a view on other runners in the race.

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