Grand National 2018 Stats/Trends/Pointers
I don’t have a great record in this race, which does irk me somewhat. Well, since I’ve been a racing fan (10 years or so), I’ve yet to back the winner. My Midlands National, Irish National, Scottish National and Welsh National form hasn’t quite translated to this race. Sunnyhillboy was the closest I’ve come – an agonising nose defeat in a photo. My mood wasn’t improved by the fact the friends i was with had backed the winner at 33s, the buggers. I will be trying to use the stats below to help me end my hoodoo.
I take a more relaxed approach to the Aintree meeting as I attend for all three days and very much enjoy the social occasion – I don’t slave away on race analysis as I do at Cheltenham. However, there will be some coverage and I’ll take each day as it comes. The ‘tips’ made +16 points last year from a handful of races.
At some point next week I will use the stats below to form a ‘winning profile’ and hope that it produces a shortlist that includes the winner! (and that I land on the right ones to tip) This is is the same approach that has won me and any followers +129 points or so in the last 20 days.
For now, just the stats/pointers to use as you please…
10 Year Stats
10/398 runners, 40 placed horses
10/10 aged 8-11 (6+7, 0/28,0p… only 2 6yo have run)
10/10 had won at C2 or above
10/10 were up by no more than 2 classes: 3+ , 0/51,2p
10/10 had run over 3m1.5f or further: 0/55,4p had not
10/10 had 1+ run in prev 90 days: 0… 0/35,4p
10/10 had 3+ runs in prev 365 days: 0-2… 0/64,5p
10/10 had 18+ career runs: 17 or fewer… 0/105,8p
10/10 had 3+ handicap runs: 0-2… 0/36,1p
10/10 had 3+ runs this season: 0-2… 0/92,7p
- 5 runs only: 0/66,4p (not sure much logic to that)
10/10 had 10+ chase runs: 0/72,5p did not
10/10 had 13+ runs going LH: 0-12…. 0/172, 14p
10/10 had 5+ career wins: 0-4… 0/121,11p
- 4 wins only is 8 of those 11p, so caution with those
9/10 1st or 2nd at least once on last three runs: 1/138,11p were not
9/10 had 5+ runs in handicap chases: 0-4: 1/114,9p
9/10 had 1-3 handicap chase wins
- 0: 1/109,7p
- 4+ : 0/58,4p
9/10 had 4+ wins going LH: 0-3.. 1/242,17p
9/10 had 3-6 chase wins
Other
- Bottom weights: 0/29,0p
- 1-2 chase wins only: 0/85,9p
- Wore cheekpieces: 0/72,5p, Blinkers 1/46,3p
- 0 places in handicap chases: 0/42,1p
- Ran over 3m ½ f to 3m2f LTO: 0/131,10p (poss a random stat, no logic)
- Ran Right Handed LTO: 0/98,6p
- Ran in a G2 LTO: 0/56,8p
*
I did also have a look at some 5 year pointers…
5/198 runners, 20 places
5/5 had 3+ runs this season: 0-2, 0/44,2p
5/5 had 5+ career wins: 0-4… 0/61,6p
- 5/5 had 5-8 career wins
5/5 had 2 or more runs at G3 level: 0-1… 0/49,3p
5/5 did NOT run in a Non-Major race LTO: did… 0/75,7p
- Ran in G2 LTO: 0/27,3p
5/5 running at same class (G3) Up1 or dropping in class: Up 2+ … 0/75,7p
4/5 running at same class (G3) or Up 1:
4/5 carried 10-11 or less: 10-12+…. 1/73,6p
4/5 had 2+ runs in prev 90 days: 0-1… 1/91,11p
Other
- OR 10lb or higher from last run: 2/7 runners, 3 places
- Had run over 4m3.5f+ prev, 0/55,8p
- Ran RH LTO: 0/49,2p
- Headgear… CP + Blinkers: 0/73,5p
*
That’s all for this post.
Josh
19 Responses
Iv used these this year Josh.
AINTREE GRAND NATIONAL TRENDS EARLY LOOK
Rather than go back 20 years im going to start with the last
10 years and concentrate more on the last 5 years when the course was modified,fences altered and the distance shortened.
10/10 GB 1,Irish 6 and French bred 3
10/10 8-11 year old
10/10 rated 137-160
10/10 10st3 – 11st9
10/10 Highest class win Class 2
10/10 won at 3m +
10/10 top 3 finish in last 3 runs
9/10 top 8 finish
9/10 21 – 60 days LTO
That will reduce the field to a more handier number and will take out notable runners such as Minella Rocco,Blacklion,
Total recall,Gas line boy,Raz de maree and Bless the wings.
5 YEAR TRENDS
5/5 Class 1 Chase top 3 at 27f +
5/5 5/5 at least 3 season runs
5/5 between 10 – 24 chase runs
5/5 at least 7 3m+ chase/hurdles runs
5/5 a Racing post rating of 171 +
4/5 under 11st
11ST Under
Since 2013 44 carried 11st+ with only 17
finishing,4 placing and 1 winner Many Clouds.
CI Chase TOP 3 over 27f+
2017 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 6th 7th had
2016 1st 3rd 5th had
2015 first 6 had
2014 1st to 8th had minus 3rd
2013 first 4 had
I am left with three horses that fit the winning
trends for the past 5 years.
TIGER ROLL
MILANSBAR
VINTAGE CLOUDS (would need 12 to drop out)
other mentions just failing could run into a place
FINAL NUDGE – ran well in Welsh national
ANIBALE FLY – asked to go further than 3m on 3 occasions
2nd in GR1,Won 96 grand hcap and 3rd in Gold cup and
now 9lb well in as weights came out before Gold cup run.
However should Minella Rocco come out these could
change again also ground coming up very soft or
heavy could again change my selections even though
these fit all recent winners.
Thanks Robert, always interesting to see what other stats people home in on.
That C1 chase, 27f+ one looks a decent pointer.
Great work! 3 places in the Top 5 from 4 selections!
Thanks guys. Going to be fun trying to figure it out. One to add is its a major positive to have ran over hurdles LTO instead of fences (8.33% win rate vs 2.04% over fences and 16.67% place rate vs 9.77% over fences) Obviously the counter balance to that is looking for a horse that ran in a class 2 or better hurdle given past record of those in class 3s.
Think I will end up with a couple of stats pokes and a couple of ‘sod the stats and just treat it like a handicap chase’ pokes! (esp given my record haha – but plenty of very good pointers there with 0/50 + negatives) We shall see. Haven’t even looked at the race at all!
What about ‘Last time out ran in the Gold Cup’?
What about jockeys who go well in the race? Any angles there?
We need another Red Rum. No need for any analysis then.
Well the only jockey’s who have won more than once are both injured. Of those likely to be riding/not retired Geraghty, Power, Madden, Jacob, Mullins (D) and Fox have won once.
Of those that have ran in a Gold Cup LTO in the last 10 years are 1/22, 2p (1/54, 7p in the last 20) so I think its fair to say Many Clouds was a bit of a freak result and would look at it as a negative although the sample size is small.
OK, that is out then until things change in terms of stats. I will leave it to you and Josh to work out. I do not bet in the race myself but need to give my Mum a decent tip for her ‘two bob each way’.
Hopefully the rain will cease and we will get some decent ground for the three days.
Milansbar, Gas Line Boy and The Dutchman are my 3 against the field at mo..but, if it becomes a slog….who knows, could have a Red Marauder on our hands!?
About the only thing you can trust from the BBC any more is the weather. Very interesting forecast for Liverpool. Very little more rain to come, apart from Saturday and Tuesday (light) and lots of sun and warmth too and a decent breeze. Course drains VERY well and another factor is how little it is used compared to many others so likely to be excellent covering of grass.
On that basis should be Good to Soft, or better if the breeze really picks up, would not even discount a few calling for watering – bizarre thought but could happen.
Have to admit I’ve not looked at Card and won’t until day before but Good to Soft or better is I’d say if forecast right better than a 50/50 chance.
cheltenham and aintree are my most profiatble betting events of the year for sure …. the gold cup and the national both being my favourite best races by far for interst and profits really !
for the national all you have to do is ….. look at the result of the hennessy gold cup back in november …….. back anything that either won or ran well and jumped around safely in this race .. you won’t go far wrong and then filter further by leaning towards any of those horses trained by trainers who have had winners on the previous thursday or friday of that meeting …simples 🙂 ……… this is an old wives …..oops sorry a proven winner finding exercise for me in the last 30 years of grand nationals ………. mind you i don’t know yet if there are any qualifiers yet ?? also a previous distance winning of over 2m 4f is also perfect for horses running in the national…. i have said too much :0) already ..i should have patented this method by now ..lol … keep having fun …. you just see if i am right come about 5pm saturday 14th :0) gl
these are my confirmed hennessy / ladbrokes gold cup entries against the field for the national :
1st /. Braqueur D’Or (FR)
2nd/. Total Recall (IRE)
3rd/. Regal Encore (IRE)
4th/. A Genie In Abottle (IRE)
5th/. Double Ross
bets are on nrnb !! 🙂
as my last big national win was 26 years ago when i backed party politics from 40’s down to 16’s whenever i had a few quid my opinion probably isn’t worth a toss. i have backed 2 Non Runner No Bet but usually wait until the day.
I Just Know 33-1, price still available in places but as low as 25-1 on some books, hits all the stats/trends i was looking at.
Captain Redbeard 80-1, now between 50 and 40-1 to be honest i don’t really know why i backed him apart from thinking the 80-1 was generous .
I am getting really sweet on The Dutchman, Mr Tizzard and Mr Cobden do really well at this meeting and even though Colin Tizzard has had a stop start season, this is his time of year and after Ultragold in the Topham last year, they can go one better this year!! I don`t think anyone has even mentioned him apart from me!
The Dutchman – you obviously haven’t seen the front page or the Racing Post and Racing Post website “Everything about The Dutchman looks right for The National……my best ever National hope” Colin Tizzard
Hahaha I just noticed it after coming on here and ranting, that will teach me!!
Tizzard is rarely so bullish so it has to be on anyone’s shortlist I’d suggest IF the ground is right for it and that’s a bigger IF than any horse at the moment!