Members Daily Post: 06/01/17 (complete)

Section 1 + test zone (INC All-Weather)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

Chepstow

1.00 – Souriyan (nov hncps) I1 11/1 S2 S5  UP

2.05 – Emperors Choice (hncp chase + m1+m2) 14 20/1 S2 BD

2.45 – Eminent Poet (m2) 14H3 5/1 UP

3.20 –

Play The Ace (all hncps) ES+H1 I3 G1  11/4 S3A S4  UP

Rock On Rocky (all hncps + hncp chase + m1) ES H3 I3 9/2 S3  UP

Pressurize (hncp chase + m1 + m1) 8/1 WON 8/1>4/1 (10p r4)

Templehills (m2) 7/1 2nd

 

Sandown

1.20 – Amber Gambler (all hncps) 18/1 S2 UP 4th (unlucky not to place) 

3.00 – Gas Line Boy (all hncps) H3 5/1  UP

3.35 – Call Me Lord (hncp hurdle + m1) 14,30 H1 I3 7/2  WON 5/2 

 

Wincanton

2.40 – Antartica De Thaix (m2) ES+ H3 I1 G3 6/4  S3A S4 Fell 

3.45 – Waterloo Warrior (m2) ES  12/1 S2 S3  UP

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price.

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 12th Nov – End of Flat 2017)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 31st Dec)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (01/09/17-) (32/177, +118.75) (1 point win bets)

No notes horses today, nothing leaping of the page at me at the prices, and no real ‘magic formula’ horses that I can see. I’ll be patient and hold fire.

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Random… in my latest ‘the week that was’ article I mentioned J Tuite being on the cold list.. he was 0/35,2p in recent weeks.. i think the next day or soon after he had a winner. So, if you like playing on the sand, do note that. There is a chance they ‘could’ burst into life. I only mention him as when going through Kempton’s card for the TTP stats below I noted he had a runner.

 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)

1.00 Chep – Socksy (m3) 7/2 UP

2.05 Chep- Chase The Spud (m1/m3/m4) 10/1 UP

 

Richard Hobson (33/1< guide)

12.15 Sand – Echo Watt 8/1 UP

 

David Pipe PU LTO (14/1< guide)

2.05 Chep – Rathlin Rose 50/1 UP DNQ

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TTP All-Weather

Lingfield

1.15 – Maazel (4yo+) ES H3 G3 11/1  S3 S5 

1.45 – Fayez (m1) I3 15/2

Kempton

8.15 – Cliff Face (all hncps) ES 16/1 S3 

 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

 

The Big Read

The Magic Formula: READ HERE>>>

(that’s the most extensive article I have ever written on my approach to betting, I hope some of you find it useful/interesting! Do let me know) 🙂

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Big Race Stats/Trends… I have covered/will be covering the Welsh National on the free post, but I did take a look at the 3.35 Sandown

8/8 ran 2-4 times this jumps season

8/8 had 1+ run previous 90 days

Not same OR as LTO: 0/19,3p

Maybe a bit tentative, and not the greatest of stats pools, but those three leave: Clayton + Drops of Jupiter 

 

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SP2A – 3 month trial: You can find out more/join HERE>>>

There are not many other services I would highlight in my own members’ club but some of you may be interested in given this tipping service a go. I have convinced Ian to run the exclusive trial period for a second time. Plenty of you tried the first one we did (Oct-Dec) and stayed with them, subscribing to both SP2A and my members’ club. It could be argued that together, they form the perfect betting portfolio! 🙂 In truth some preferred Ian’s service to what I do here which is fair enough. There is something out there for everyone. They are the best all-round tipping service I have ever seen, if not best tipping service full stop. But you can read through the link above and make your own mind up. 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

29 Responses

  1. I am out and about most of tonight and tomorrow so not sure how much I will have but the two I like for the Welsh National are Vintage Clouds 1pt e/w and On the Road 0.75pt e/w.

    1. With you on VC Nick, can’t leave Chase The Spud and a sneaky 6 place e/w @40’s on Rathlin Rose which shouldn’t be too far away if it jumps better than recently.

      mike

      1. aah, Rathlin just appeared on the Pipe test?, must have missed that, can anyone point me in the right direction.
        Mike

    2. Have also had 1pt e/w on Perfect Candidate in the 15:00. He is only 4lbs higher for his win in a Grade 3 last time out when he had Benbens 20 lengths behind and that one has since franked the form. Looks the class horse in the race and hasn’t had any issues carrying this sort of weight in heavy ground in the past. He is 5/8 in class 2 or below handicap chases when returning within 60 days. Obviously Paddy would have been preferred but Conor is an able deputy. Should be able to race just off the pace and I expect a bold showing.

      With regards to my Welsh National picks I wanted something with no more than 11st on their back and Vintage is just over but looks one of the class horses in the race and ran some very solid in defeat last year and looks to have sorted his jumping this year. Should relish this test and Danny Cook comes here for the one ride. On The Road fits the trends and looks to have been targeted at this and Bastyan would have had the choice of the 3 Williams runners. Has a lovely weight.

      1. Emperors Choice has no weight and is a previous winner for Venetia and so the 20/1 looks solid gold each way now that he has found some form. I also like Milansbar and Vintage Clouds as well.

        1. I like EC as well Martin. Only just snuck in to the race via a penalty for its win lto. The time between races is what interests me, he has form performing well with short breaks over long trips in testing conditions. Won twice in 8 days in heavy in 2013 and nearly did the same the following year 1st & 2nd in similar conditions and time between races. Obviously that’s a little while ago now and he’s getting a bit long in the tooth, but won last time out and Venetias yard is firing so I think 20/1 is value.

          1. Some see it as a negative to be running so quickly after an outing on heavy ground. But yes some will be suited by it. The race is very competitive and so we need to be relaxed about size of bet. However he has no weight and has won it before and so from a value perspective 20/1 was a must to me.

            The three meetings today all have ‘Heavy’ going. But with a flawed scientific method for measuring going in the UK some will be heavier than others. Perhaps one day we will use technology better in such circumstances?

            I also like Drops of Jupitor, 3.35 SP, in that he may be improving and may be suited by the going? I do like Gas Line Boy, 3.00 SP, as my favourite veteran, who has been in form and can be backed until running below his best.

            Good luck.

      2. The 17/2 with BV is great value for PC.If chepstow is abandoned Paddy may be rerouted,but is a straightforward horse anyway.We saw in Feb at Exeter how he pulverised the field in a veterans race,the fact is he is a lightly raced 11yo and if anything has improved,hopefully he will force the pace and if he gets into a rhythm it could be curtains for the rest.FOB has a good record in chases at the track also

  2. As I write, we are around breakeven for the day with one race to come. Thought for a moment we had another biggie with Monte Cinq (SP/BOG 33s), just run down before the line but EW means we got some return.
    Two more meetings tomorrow from Lingfield and Kempton. Qualifiers as follows:
    Lingfield
    1.15 Samarmadi 5/1
    1.45 General Hazard 13/2 & Easy Tiger 11/2
    2.20 Gabrial 4/1 & Straight Right 4/1
    2.55 Fas Le Fios 9/1
    3.30 Assanilka 11/2

    Kempton
    6.45 American Patrol 20/1 (EW)
    8.15 Haines 12/1

    1pt win except where noted.

    1. Hi Ken,

      I did watch the Monte Cinq race, it was definitely sunday league standard as opposed pro standard. I thought you were a bit unlucky not to land a 33/1 winner there. Keep on trying though and it will come.

  3. Welsh National … Milansbar + On The Road my two pokes, 1 point on each, up on free post/write up to follow, and possibly a dart in Veterans at Sandown.
    What with me, SP2A, comments from esteemed members in this post, I think we will end up covering most of the field!! 🙂

    1. With Spud for the Paddy qualifiers I am on 9 given my main tipster has gone for Wild West Wind and Final Nudge but that’s just the portfolio approach for you.

      1. You’re mad! 🙂 Some of them must be ‘loss leaders’?? Fingers crossed one of them wins for you, it does look open. Maybe the weight stats on heavy get busted this year, they are overdue.
        First few fences/position key for Milansbar…if that all goes to plan then i’ll get very excited. Convinced myself he’s the one! (more heart than head maybe) GL

        1. I did back Milansbar 16/1 BOG and also have Emperors Choice and Vintage Clouds. 3 more than enough for me.

        2. The mentality you have to take is it really doesn’t matter what happens on any given race, day or week but the longer term. Those 9 are from my picks, your picks, SP2A, My main tipster and a little £7.50 on Spud so its really 4.5 tipsters there. But if you follow a service I think is a big error to pick and choose when you back them (like someone earlier this week who said they didn’t back your notes winner because they were already on two in the race) since you need to be looking at each service independently of the others since its the only fair way to judge it. I do appreciate some people aren’t comfortable doing that. At least all the e/w picks are on with 5 or 6 places today. I think On The Road would be the biggest winner profit wise so good luck us! (although my double will be on Clouds)

          1. That is an issue with Saturday racing as tipsters feel the need to tip in the big race(s) and so you get multiple selections. How do you pick who to follow anyway? Current form? Those below 11 stone? It is a tricky one. You then end up with multiple selections for fear of leaving out the winner! The brain never really helps you out on such occasions I find.

          2. You’re missing the point Martin. I don’t back them because of any fear of missing out but because I think its wrong to follow a service and pick and choose what you back so as long as they are making a long term profit. But barring SP2A Elite service who is about the big races neither of the rest will aim to tip in the big races. My preference has always been 9-12 runner ones but bookmaker concessions on places make it that much more attractive to have a bet although I would never have a bet just because its a big race.

            I don’t get the comments re who to follow. The 4 mentioned are Josh, SP2A, myself and a tipster who has made me £20k. All about the long term. Following someone just because they are in form is an error since you should be looking at their long term results.

  4. Yep, well Nick is right.. you either follow an approach or you don’t – or, you have to be able to live with applying your own thought and ‘missing winners’
    All about the individual… Nick is clearly happy to follow X approaches, + his own analysis.
    You do have to leave mental capacity to think/enjoy racing.. and for most i’d like to think that between this members post (and what you pick within that) / the comments / maybe my free tips / + maybe a tipping service! / that’s probably plenty… well, it is for me!

    My free tips..well I see them as the ultimate challenge as a fair chunk are in the hardest races of the week- i suppose I don’t feel the need to tip in them, but I feel like I am shirking the greatest puzzles of them all if I leave them- and my enjoyment mainly comes from solving the puzzle.

    Really, given how competitive they are, you should leave them alone! On flip side you get plenty to aim at that are a big price. Your pin doesn’t need to land on many.

    In general though, less is more for me. You can have too much information. But that’s why it’s important to try what suits you, whether you want a tipster, want to follow a systematic approach, a mix of the lot, + your own views etc. Just have to take the time to work out what you get most enjoyment from.

    Josh

  5. I agree Nick, if you follow other tips it has to be ALL the selections or none at all. Cherry picking just does not work.

  6. I’m late on….but based purely on it being Heavy…carrying under 11 stone and having won on it…with class wins or placed in class and ran within 60days.

    Emperors Choice
    Alfie Spinner
    Firebird Flyer
    Milansbar
    Buckhorn Timothy.

    Tony Mc.

  7. I’d suggest VC might have won that by a street. Seemed to have got unnerved by the faller in front and hampered enough to get put off stride, and a great ride by Danny Cook to let the horse coast for a couple to find a rhythm again. I’m biased slightly, needed it first 4 to complete a number of place accumulators with the Xmas fancies….but if it gets in the National with a reasonable weight will definitely be worth a second look….particularly as Sue Smith was saying a few days ago that they were worried about the ground.

    Currently around 50 on BF, too low to consider till there’s some indication of whether he’ll get in.

    1. Not sure about winning by a street but would have gone close. I don’t think he is ready for the Grand National this year and would personally wait until next year. His jumping has improved but he was still getting out-jumped there and it was his massive engine that got him there. Would rather aim him at the Midlands (although hope he doesn’t turn up if Westy goes there)

  8. cheers gents, that is as satisfying as it gets tipping in a race like that. Didn’t read the WN very well, couldn’t have read that one better haha. What a game. Glad you had a piece. Good start to the year for the 3m+ chase tips.

  9. Buywise…Great shout Josh….never got back in time to back it….Well done though.
    Mine are still running lol…another large.

    Tony Mc.

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