Members Daily Post: 02/12/17 (complete)

Notes x5 (+ write ups), Section 1 , test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

*

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

 

Newcastle

12.30 –

Indian Voyage (all hncps) H1 G3 12/1  S1 S2  UP

Ronn The Conn (hncp chase) H3 I3 G3 10/3 S4  2nd 

The Orange Rogue (m1) 16/1 S2 UP

3.20 – Wakanda (m2) I3 G1 6/1  UP

 

Doncaster

1.15 – Lord Huntingdon (all hncps + m2) G3 10/1 S1 S2 UP

2.20 –

Wolf Catcher (all hncps) 6/1 3rd

Top Ville Ben (hncp hurdle) H3 I3 G1 11/2  S4  2nd 

 

Newbury

1.20 –

Bouvreuil (hncp chase) 14  H3 I3 6/1  UP

Warriors Tale (hncp chase) 14 I1 8/1 S5 2nd 

Gentleman Jon (hncp chase) G3 12/1 S1 S2 3rd 16/1 

1.50 –

Jabulani (hncp hurdle) G3 15/2  UP

Old Guard (m1) 14  H1 I1 15/2   WON 15/2>7/2 

2.25 – Poppy Kay (m1+ m2) ES+ 7/1 S3A UP

3.00 –

Royal Vacation (hncp chase) 25/1 S2 PU

Present Man (hncp chase) 14  20/1 S2 UP

Braqueur D’Or (hncp chase) 14 40/1  4th 

3.35 – Marracudja (hncp chase) 14  H1 15/2  UP

 

Bangor

1.35 –

Newtown Lad (hncp chase) I1 G3 9/2 UP

Waldorf Salad (m1) 9/1 UP

3.15 –

Cowslip (m1+m1+m2) 14 ES+ H3 I3 G3 8/1 S3A S4   WON 8/1>5/1 

Ballybrowneybridge (m1) 14 7/1 UP

 

*

KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1/’Strategy 1′. Added on morning of racing along with the price.

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 12th Nov – End of Flat 2017)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 26th Nov)

All Members’ Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

*

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (01/09/17-) (27/146, +114.5) (1 point win bets)

NOTES

12.30 Newc – Indian Voyage – 12/1 UP

1.20 Newb – Warriors Tale – 8/1 2nd 10/1

1.50 Newb – Old Guard – 13/2 WON 13/2>7/2 

3.15 Bang – Ballybrowneybridge – 7/1 UP

3.20 Newc – Wakanda – 6/1 UP

 

Ah well I am running out of time.. Indian Voyage.. thought 12s was fair given he bounced back to form LTO and in his career to date he usually holds his form well when finding it (he has followed up his last two wins NTO). Most in here have questions to answer and I was happy to have a go. Ronn The Conn is unexposed but 10/3 looked short enough to my eyes.. I wasn’t sure if the drop back down in trip would suit given how he ran at Hexham. Wakanda.. I have touched on in the free post as I have ‘tipped’ him also given the race type… at his best he would make all here and go very close and he arrives here fit and in form. 6s looks fair… (have tipped Boric in that also, 11s seemed too big to my eyes)

Newbury… Warriors Tale… ah..that sums up the mood… maybe On Tour would have won, sadly a loose horse then cost WT victory I think, BF had to pull him back just at wrong point. What a game. Had Gentleman J jumped the last he may have won, I can’t believe neither of them did!  I suspect this has been a target given he came a decent second in the race last year… he does like this track and the jockey’s claim takes him to a competitive mark on paper. I thought he would be up there and in the right spot, in a race that could lack loads of pace. 8s seems big…Bouvreuil can beat me at 6s.. Gentleman Jon.. well he has a ‘system’ £5 from me as there are bits and pieces of form that would give him a squeak in what feels an open race. My head wasn’t fully convinced but not enough at 12s not to have something on (given an S1). Old Guard… well the Fry horse is a danger/most likely winner.. but their form ties in… that Ascot handicap and the Chepstow Silver Trophy are proving to be the best pieces of handicap hurdle form this season, so far. Winners everywhere. Old Guard ran a superb race LTO and I just want to see what he can do at this trip…he is unexposed over this distance in handicaps and it could unlock more. He has a touch of class and should be going close here. I thought his price allowed a play.

Bangor..Well Ballybrowneybridge… could win, could be tailed off/ridden along early.. but she is unexposed, takes a drop in class, moves markedly up in trip and returns to hurdles. The trainer is now ‘in form’ or in better form at least. She is doing plenty of things differently and it is her third start after a long absence. I was a bit torn but 7s has lured me in, just. The booking of Jonjo jnr caught the eye also…and the fav in this has to prove his stamina. My head really couldn’t see Cowslip doing much in this but he ticks plenty of strategies. (and that is why they are there… a ‘biggie’ for S4…) 

This could be a brilliant or bloody Saturday for my betting bank, but thankfully on the ‘tipping’ side I have a fair bit to play with. Hopefully Indian Voyage can win and the rest can be enjoyed!

*

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Paddy Watch (all 14/1<, guide)

12.10 Newb – Cap Soleil (m1) UP

1.20 Newb – Gentleman Jon (m1+m3+m4) ‘DNQ’ 3rd 16/1

3.00 Newb – Royal Vacation (m1+m3) PU (‘DNQ’)

 

Tom Lacey (any odds)

12.25 Bang- Kimberlite Candy UP

2.05 Bang – Colt Lightening UP

1.15 Donc – Sword of Fate UP

 

D McCain (14/1< guide)

3.15 Bang – Cowslip WON 10/1>8/1>5/1 

S Dow Nov/Dec

7.45 Wolvs – Emenem

 

TTP All-Weather

Wolverhampton

7.15 – Jack Blane (m1) ES I3 G3 2/1 S3 

7.45 – Multicultural (all hncps) ES+ 14/1 S3A

8.45 – Mixbox (m1) H3 4/1 

9.15 – Bonnie Gals (m1) ES  9/2 S3

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

None today

*

Share on facebook
Facebook
Share on twitter
Twitter
Share on pinterest
Pinterest
Share on linkedin
LinkedIn
Share on telegram
Telegram

Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

12 Responses

  1. Its getting late so no writes ups although if I have time in the morning will post them but I think the first 4 look fairly solid.
    Wakanda Newcastle Saturday 15:20 1pt e/w
    Waldorf Salad Bangor Saturday 13:35 1pt e/w
    Singlefarmpayment Newbury Saturday 15:00 1pt e/w (I would personally make sure you get the 7 places)
    Chelsea Flyer Doncaster Saturday 13:15 2pt win
    Attention Please Doncaster Saturday 14:55 0.75pt e/w

    1. Wakanda Newcastle Saturday 15:20 1pt e/w-Looked pretty solid at 6s last night. Won this 2 years ago before winning the Silver Cup at Ascot and is only 2lbs higher. He is only 8 and absolutely trounced Yala Enki on both occasions last season and is better off at the weights. Likes it here with a 1st, 2nd and 5th from his 3 starts. Will either lead or be prominent. Trainer in good form and Cook on board a plus. I think Bishop’s Road is the main danger however he was poor last year and is now 9.
      Waldorf Salad Bangor Saturday 13:35 1.5pt-Given the NR I would bet this win only now given the 7 stand. I thought it was interesting that Deutch came here considering there are 4 meetings on today. Venetia is in better form and has a good record at the track in handicap chases even if it has been a little sketchy recently. Ran a solid race in March in 3rd and would have needed it LTO. Is now effectively 7lbs lower than his 2nd in a class 2 at Cheltenham 2 years ago. They put on first time cheekpieces and I this looks easier than what he has raced against recently.
      Singlefarmpayment Newbury Saturday 15:00 1pt e/w (I would personally make sure you get the 7 places)-I think given you’re getting 7 places with 2 bookies (and 6 places with B365 if you take a point lower) this one looked extremely solid. He fits most of the trends. He runs much better on his 2nd second run of the season so you would think he will come on for his last run. He has plenty of form in decent sized fields. Trainer is in good form. He will have no problem with the ground and I would be upset if he wasn’t up there towards the finish.
      Chelsea Flyer Doncaster Saturday 13:15 2pt win-Emma Lavelle is flying right now with 3 winners a 2nd from her last 5 runners (even Vibrato Valtat ran well in 4th at 25s yesterday). he horse last ran in a very hot race which contained the Greatwood 1st and 2nd and everything that has come out of it has ran well even the horse behind him. He gets dropped 3lbs and returns to the scene of his last win. This race is considerably easier. I think he is still on a really good mark. Trainer is a very solid 10/32, 12p +18 record at the track. The 5s last night looked big.
      Attention Please Doncaster Saturday 14:55 0.75pt e/w-I have had this one in the tracker since his close 3rd back in 2016. Has been dropped to a pretty nice mark. On his first run this season they put blinkers on which he has never liked. They remove them and put on first time cheekpieces. Trainer won the race last year and i think this has been the plan. She is another in cracking for with 2 wins a 2nd a 3rd and a 4th from her last 6 runners. Jockey had a winner yesterday and looks to be in good form. 12s looked too big and I thought was worth a small bet.

        1. Thanks. It’s funny how the one you least fancy and almost leave out ends up winning by half the track. Another one I had twice as SP2A also tipped him this morning.

  2. 13.00 Bangor TRUCKERS HIGHWAY – fell earlier this week but returned to track quickly so trainer must be happy that he is on and has once before returned within 7 days and won.
    4,000 to 8,000 races
    2m to 2m4f
    11113R411

    15.20 Newcastle YALA ENKI – pulled up last time but did jump out to his left a lot that day and this LH track may suit today.
    Listed and below
    Soft or heavy
    Galloping Average or Tight
    11141P (LH only: 141)

  3. I’m hoping Paddy has better luck after Cap Soleil got turned over.Royal Vacation hasn’t been right since demolishing a field of promising ones way back in January,disappointed at Sun Alliance and pulled up later at Chepstow.His reappearance was underwhelming so maybe there is something unresolved,but if he was near back to best could have a say in the Hennessy

    1. Yep, Present Company now a NR, so that frees me up to throw 5 at him BFSP, just in case! I stared at him for an age.. according to RP Spotlight (via GG) he had sore shins, which explains Ps- they have since been treated. If this was the target then it wasn’t a bad run LTO…but that trip is ok for him…so who knows. One of these S2s that doesn’t look likely on paper (been plenty of those to my eyes in recent weeks) is going to dot up at some point, at a price, or even a handful of them. You would’t fall of your seat if he went close.

  4. After the 13:20 race with copious amount of money for the 2nd and 3rd nice to see Old Guard go in. Given I had it in 3 spots (sp2a, notes and double top) I can just about stave of that whip considering I should have also tipped it myself considering my two disasters so far.

    1. I thought it was going to be ‘one of those days’ after Warriors Tale. Good to get that one on the board… one more somewhere would be nice. We shall see.

      1. Have you got results for your jumps double top? (not for right now!) Will go through those next week since start of Sept, along with and double+ rated 10/1+ etc. May be some pointers there now, esp with inform/GG.
        Josh

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.