Members Daily Post: 21/11/17 (complete)

Section 1, test zone, D Peat Update

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

*

 

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

Southwell

12.30- Global Domination (m1 + m1) ES 11/2  S3 UP

1.30 – Scooby (all hncps + m1) 14H3 G3 12/1  S1 S2 3rd 5/1

 

Fakenham

1.20 – Kayfleur (all hncps) H3 I1 G3  15/8  S4  WON 15/8>  7/4 

 

*

KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1/’Strategy 1′. Added on morning of racing along with the price.

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 12th Nov)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 12th Nov)

All Members’ Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info – all  HERE>>> (please flick through,esp if new) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

*

 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (01/09/17-) (27/140, +120.5) (1 point win bets)

None today.

*

Re-Cap…

Ah, well it turns out that for now, Our Sox has problems. He jumped off prominently but was soon fading back through the field and it was obvious from an early stage that he wouldn’t be getting competitive. A line through that. Also a line through…

Really Super… well, that was disappointing but one of those runs where you’re reminded that they are animals and for whatever reason they sometimes go ‘nah, not today’. It was a very flat run. She jumped off in a good position and travelled fine, jumping well which she has always done to date. It was looking like she would play a role as they turned in and the jockey thought so also, at that point in the race. But, when he has asked for an effort there was nothing in the tank. She has just plodded on, but to her credit kept going. At her best, and from what she shows at home (and from what Amy can judge her against on ‘homework’…she has some decent jumpers), she is much better than that. She should have been chasing that winner home in second, at worst. There are possible excuses for the run… a) her last run took more out of her than we thought. Cubswin ran very flat at Ludlow also, when fav. b) she has been on the go all year and may need a few months off. Possible. c) she did have a minor infection on a back leg that had to be treated last week, requiring antibiotics etc. That can negatively impact on a horse, but you don’t know until they run. It is known for such treatment to take the edge of an animal, but she was showing all the right signs at home. d) something else – maybe she just didn’t fancy it today! I don’t want to think she has an attitude problem as yet, maybe some cheekpieces would help. Anyway, it was a great day out as always. Jack is very good with his feedback and has a good head on him. The syndicate is good fun and Amy is very generous with her time. She stayed for a good two hours post race, drinking, chatting etc. Bar the run of Really Super, a decent day out. She came back safe which is the main thing. There is always another day and all being well I think we’ll run her at Aintree in the Listed race on the 9th December. I’m clearly pushing for that!!  She has the ability to place in a race like that and it will all click together one day. We will have a very well handicapped flat horse on our hands next season also.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Tom Lacey (any odds)

3.00 South – Vado Forte * 2nd 4/1

*looks interesting to my eyes… Lacey is ‘ in form’, 3/14,7p last 14 days. Lacey is 5/19,7p, +20 in the last two years with handicap debutants and that’s an angle to keep an eye on. The horse drops in class and gets a hood fitted. And returns to decent ground. He has been very keen and needs to settle, the hope is that the hood helps. There is no pace in this race and there is a chance they try and lead again. It is also a shocker of a race that shouldn’t take much winning. He could well be moderate but 9/2 seemed fair to my eyes, esp given the quality of oppo and his profile. 

Ah, well it looked good for the most part but he was keen again… and no shock he ran out of gas to go past at the end. They have clearly tried to get him to settle in behind runners and you can’t blame them. But it hasn’t worked, not as yet anyway. He did well to go that close given the jockey couldn’t settle him at all really, not to my eye. Maybe he is the type to settle in front but given how he has run to date I can’t blame them for riding him like that. He clearly has the ability to win a weak race but i wouldn’t want shorter than 9/2 when backing him in the future. The winner has received a peach of a ride and they didn’t go much pace for most of that race, which didn’t help his cause. Damn. 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Weekly Results Update:Advised Strategies

Summary

Weekly TOTAL (advised strategies) (all Jumps now): 

  • Backing all strategy quals every time they hit a strategy: 8/67,23p, -16.5 
  • Backing all strategy quals just once, regardless of how many strategies they hit: 6/48, -5.5 

NOTES: 1/8, -4

*

David Peat: Update #5: READ HERE>>>

*

Share on facebook
Facebook
Share on twitter
Twitter
Share on pinterest
Pinterest
Share on linkedin
LinkedIn
Share on telegram
Telegram

Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

16 Responses

  1. Golf not the best week with Fitzpatrick and Hatton, what were they both thinking that it was a 32 hole tournament if only!! then Webb Simpson with drawing from the RSM.
    Will be on tomorrow with next weeks bets.

    1. I had a bit of luck in the Golf. I backed Justin Rose and was sweating the final round and then he hit it into the water! However Corals were king enough to have the bonus that if your player is leading at the end of the third round you get paid as the winner. Only realised when going into the account in the evening and seeing the balance figure. Pretty jammy.

      1. Hi Martin
        pleased to hear of your good fortune,had the three golf bets with Coral for at the moment they appear to have decent terms for ew 7 places most weeks.

    2. Also had some luck last week with Dean Burmester getting a share of a place at 350/1 and Top 10 at 26/1. Was getting very excited until he bogeyed 17 on the final round when tied for the lead. Not to be but some nice returns in any case

  2. sorry no time for proper analysis but I like this speculative bet

    2.30 Wolverhampton
    Exchequer
    Easy Tiger
    Boost
    combination trifecta/tricast.
    all 3 likely up with the pace and hopefully hard to pass. taking fitness on trust from 2 of them but trainers can have them fit, exchequer well handicapped.

  3. Tomorrow looks like a horrible day of racing. Nothing tip wise from me but have thrown a couple of quid e/w which I am likely never getting back on Fleur Du Pommier in the bumper at Southwell given the front 2 in her last race were 1/2 in the listed bumper at Cheltenham yesterday and 6th has won a hurdle. Jockey/trainer are 2/5 in bumpers and won on a 66/1 shot on her 3rd bumper start (who made her first start in March and her second one in October). I am clearly clutching at straws here but after yesterday I can throw away £5 when nothing remotely takes my fancy.

    1. One stat to back up the Fleur du Pommier bet – trainers’ records at this time of year over the last 5 years –
      G C Maundrell ………… 4-6 67% +85.00

      1. Certainly ran better than most 150/1 shots. High chance she would have placed if Baker hadn’t been 3lbs overweight.

  4. My E/W Lucky 15.
    Southwell 12.30 Chasma 11/2 Mick Easterby’s only runner here, his horses are in good form and this one has won after a break before, negative only 7 runners but very poor cards today.
    Southwell 1.30 Whin Park 12/1, According to the trainer this horse was backward and green last year and came back more mature so after a run to blow away the cobwebs I’m hoping of it at least reaching the frame.
    Lingfield 2.40 Outer Space 7/1 Jamie Osbourne’s horses have been running well of late and again is his only runner here.
    Lingfield 3.40 Relevant 8/1 Kieran Burke has 4 runners here today and this one got within a head to a 1/4 shot last time at Newcastle last time and they have gone for the first time cheekpieces something different I like.

    good luck everyone

  5. A bit late but I would like to give David peat a shout out for ELGIN on sunday. The horse profile you wrote was spot on. In fact the comment reads like it was written after it had won. Spot on.

    Not great racing tomorrow but something has to win the races so having a flick through i quite like FIRST FLIGHT 2:10 lingfield. This one has been racing in better company and looks well treated at the weights.

  6. why is Fleur Du Pommier 3-30 Southwell getting in my head ? not in my stable/trackers but it keeps ringing a bell very annoying .

    as has been said racing today is poor generally but i do fancy Sutter’s Mill 1-30 Southwell ew 12-1 (Skybet Paying 4 Places ) 2nd in his penultimate start at Warwick, 2m 5f, Good (Good to Soft in Places), C3, poor lto but maybe worth a nibble at the price.

  7. Following you in on Vado forte, you won’t see a worse race all day.
    Ding ding 1.10 lingfield, looks like a penalty kick to my eyes. 4/1 looks huge. Not raced beyond 1m 2 on the flat. Been racing over 2m 5 over hurdles, going up 27lb in the process. Can’t see ding ding not winning off a mark of 50

    1. Its never easy Ding Ding, especially in a handicap around LP. Winner scooted home to deny you. I had Wintour Leap each way, came from well back for third.

      Dreadful racing today, maybe Dicky Johnson will win a race or two at Fakenham?

    1. Fingers crossed, money usually not mis-placed from that yard, and they are in form. Will come on from last run…wondered if trip may be too short around here- I won’t be shocked if he is out-paced/doing best work late, but at 12s given S1 esp, had to roll the dice! GL

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.