Free Daily Post: 20/11/17 (complete)

just a micro today..

TIPS

None.

 

MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

Trainer/jockey Combo– Live Test

3.10 Plump – Mr Muddle

*

That’s it for today, a quiet one ahead. I am just about to jump on a train and head to Leicester – with any luck Really Super can run her race in the 2.50 and give us something to cheer.

GL with any bets.

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

5 Responses

  1. 3 races of interest today

    1.10 Plumpton
    the dead eight runners with two outstanding candidates
    Landin who ran 8th in the triumph and although beaten a few times since came good at Worcester fto
    this year he looks a solid horse with a 7lb claimer offsetting his penalty.
    His main opponent is Tikkanbar who is probably a better horse.
    He won two bumpers before running 10th in the championship bumper
    at Aintree only beaten 10l

    The solid form of Landin against the potential of Tikkanbar
    as Tikkanbar lacks a recent run and has never run over hurdles
    the percentage horse is Landin

    Bold image is also an interesting runner
    she to lacks hurdle experience and has a break to overcome
    but her breeding suggests stamina (Milan out of a Karinga Bay mare)
    She powered home in a Fontwell bumper and although that forms is not in the class of the two market
    principals she is worth keeping an eye on
    If Suzy Smith has her spot on I expect her to be staying on strongly

    3.50 Leicester
    Melangerie won to bumpers last year and was rather disappointing
    on her comeback and although a few of Nicky horses have needed the run
    5/4 seems very short.

    Speed company has good flat form but FTO over hurdles is a guessing game
    could be a good bet but could also jump the a crab

    Destrier was Fancied for a bumper last year but pulled like a train and was tailed off
    so backing him will be a leap of faith that Harry Skelton can get him settled
    fto over hurdles doesn’t scream e/w vale at 5/1 as a slow pace could see him pull his chances away
    a strong early pace would be to his advantage
    and if that was the case he could well improve

    Doc Carver won a p2p so we know he is battle hardened
    9th in a reasonable Cork Bumper doesn’t cry speed and his hurdle debut was only fair
    and he may need a bigger test than 2 miles on fast ground

    all round a difficult race with question marks over all the runners
    Robin Deuz pois at 40/1 may be of some interest because she was 2nd in a p2p
    and was thought good enough to run in a Doncaster bumper
    only 4th of 5 there but if Destrier pulls for his head and Doc Calver
    lacks the pace then could pick up the pieces for the place
    but would only be considering it because of a lack of faith in those two rather than confidence

    1.00 Wolverhampton.
    1m1f maiden fillies stakes
    on ratings Ciaodiosimdone and Meccabah are well clear of the rest
    Meccabah has had plenty of chances and ran a shocker lto when a very short price

    The fact they go for blinkers first time screams the horse hasn’t running to best ability
    so she looks a bit of a dodge pot to me

    Ciaodiosimdone has the best form and take a big drop in class and should win
    but her form doesn’t set the pulse racing SdeS riding means the horse will go off very short
    In fillies maidens the firstthing I do is cross off the older horses as the fact is if a horse has
    can’t win a maiden at three it is usually pretty moderate
    The top 4 on the card are all 4 year olds and a line can be drawn through them
    3 of then are rank outsiders But Indians dawn has placed form but very moderate
    races so cross her out

    so the places look between the three year olds

    Mundersfield make her debut so that straight away tat makes me wary
    only cost 3k as a yearling so not one of the mega rich fillies that the owners are desperate to get placed form
    so she will be worth something as a broodmare
    chances are she is more of a long term handicap horse

    1. 1.00 wolves continued
      Deauville diva cost £95,000 as a yearling and is regally bred by Lawman
      out of a Gallileo mare
      Made her debut recently at Windsor
      and the 7 lb claiming rider made no effort to get her out the stalls and was never in the race but she ran on
      to take a decent 5th all be it beaten 10l

      Tyler Saunders keeps the ride today which could either signal
      that they wont be trying to run the horse to her merits just yet
      or she is such an easy ride that an apprentice is perfect for her.

      I expect this filly to leave her form behind soon today could be the day they go for the
      places but they could be waiting, but worth a watch in the market

      So Landin looks the solid option
      and the Wolves and Leicester races look to have iffy horses in the first three in the betting

      On the fast ground at Leicester the 3.40 could play into the hands of the decent flat horse
      Speed Company but as we have no way to knowing if he can jump
      it would be guessing to back him.
      Destrier needs to show he can settle
      Melangerie is to short a price
      and ex pointers Doc Carver and Robin Deuz Pois shold lack the speed
      over 2 miles on fast ground
      but if Destrier pulls like a train and Speed Company jumping crumbles they could be plodding on for places

      The Wolves race also has iffy marker leaders
      the fav has the best form in better class but the price is way to short
      and the 2nd fav looks a horse who is very hard to win with, first time blinkers
      screams issues so hard to be confident with her

      There are a few who are rated in the 40 and 4 four year old whos forms is
      terrible.
      Without doubt Deuville Diva is the most interesting horse in the race
      but it is hard to know if they will be trying with her today
      if they are I expect her to go close
      either way well worth watching how they approach the race
      if they flop out the back then todays not the day

      1. Destrier being backed like defeat is out of the question
        but his first run has alarm bells ringing
        They must think at home he has learned to settle
        but racecourse evidence doesn’t back that up.
        The rest of the field are friendless in the market
        with the Henderson horse very week out to 9/4.

        The money in the Wolves race has come for Baldings horse but
        a string of defeats followed by the application of first time blinkers.
        doesn’t inspire maximum confidence

        Tikkabar is the money horse at Plumpton and may well be better class than these
        but never jumping a hurdle in public and a long break
        doesn’t pull you in

        The three money horses all have major negatives
        but the market is saying the opposite
        time will tell but I am prepared to take them on

        with the prices as they now are
        an e/w treble
        LANDIN
        CIAOD
        MELANGERE

        could be of interest

        all at smaller stakes
        in the same races
        BOLD IMAGE
        DEAUVILLE DIVA
        DOC CALVER

        For a more speculative play

  2. posted on members!
    sorry no time for proper analysis but I like this speculative bet

    2.30 Wolverhampton
    Exchequer
    Easy Tiger
    Boost
    combination trifecta/tricast.
    all 3 likely up with the pace and hopefully hard to pass. taking fitness on trust from 2 of them but trainers can have them fit, exchequer well handicapped.

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