TIPS
None.
MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES
Trainer/jockey Combo– Live Test
3.10 Plump – Mr Muddle
*
That’s it for today, a quiet one ahead. I am just about to jump on a train and head to Leicester – with any luck Really Super can run her race in the 2.50 and give us something to cheer.
GL with any bets.
Thank you for reading my blog and being part of the Racing to Profit community. As always if you’ve any questions or thoughts, post a comment on today’s blog post or hit the ‘contact Josh’ button to the right hand side. If you’re about to leave the blog, I can’t wait to welcome you back soon.
5 Responses
3 races of interest today
1.10 Plumpton
the dead eight runners with two outstanding candidates
Landin who ran 8th in the triumph and although beaten a few times since came good at Worcester fto
this year he looks a solid horse with a 7lb claimer offsetting his penalty.
His main opponent is Tikkanbar who is probably a better horse.
He won two bumpers before running 10th in the championship bumper
at Aintree only beaten 10l
The solid form of Landin against the potential of Tikkanbar
as Tikkanbar lacks a recent run and has never run over hurdles
the percentage horse is Landin
Bold image is also an interesting runner
she to lacks hurdle experience and has a break to overcome
but her breeding suggests stamina (Milan out of a Karinga Bay mare)
She powered home in a Fontwell bumper and although that forms is not in the class of the two market
principals she is worth keeping an eye on
If Suzy Smith has her spot on I expect her to be staying on strongly
3.50 Leicester
Melangerie won to bumpers last year and was rather disappointing
on her comeback and although a few of Nicky horses have needed the run
5/4 seems very short.
Speed company has good flat form but FTO over hurdles is a guessing game
could be a good bet but could also jump the a crab
Destrier was Fancied for a bumper last year but pulled like a train and was tailed off
so backing him will be a leap of faith that Harry Skelton can get him settled
fto over hurdles doesn’t scream e/w vale at 5/1 as a slow pace could see him pull his chances away
a strong early pace would be to his advantage
and if that was the case he could well improve
Doc Carver won a p2p so we know he is battle hardened
9th in a reasonable Cork Bumper doesn’t cry speed and his hurdle debut was only fair
and he may need a bigger test than 2 miles on fast ground
all round a difficult race with question marks over all the runners
Robin Deuz pois at 40/1 may be of some interest because she was 2nd in a p2p
and was thought good enough to run in a Doncaster bumper
only 4th of 5 there but if Destrier pulls for his head and Doc Calver
lacks the pace then could pick up the pieces for the place
but would only be considering it because of a lack of faith in those two rather than confidence
1.00 Wolverhampton.
1m1f maiden fillies stakes
on ratings Ciaodiosimdone and Meccabah are well clear of the rest
Meccabah has had plenty of chances and ran a shocker lto when a very short price
The fact they go for blinkers first time screams the horse hasn’t running to best ability
so she looks a bit of a dodge pot to me
Ciaodiosimdone has the best form and take a big drop in class and should win
but her form doesn’t set the pulse racing SdeS riding means the horse will go off very short
In fillies maidens the firstthing I do is cross off the older horses as the fact is if a horse has
can’t win a maiden at three it is usually pretty moderate
The top 4 on the card are all 4 year olds and a line can be drawn through them
3 of then are rank outsiders But Indians dawn has placed form but very moderate
races so cross her out
so the places look between the three year olds
Mundersfield make her debut so that straight away tat makes me wary
only cost 3k as a yearling so not one of the mega rich fillies that the owners are desperate to get placed form
so she will be worth something as a broodmare
chances are she is more of a long term handicap horse
1.00 wolves continued
Deauville diva cost £95,000 as a yearling and is regally bred by Lawman
out of a Gallileo mare
Made her debut recently at Windsor
and the 7 lb claiming rider made no effort to get her out the stalls and was never in the race but she ran on
to take a decent 5th all be it beaten 10l
Tyler Saunders keeps the ride today which could either signal
that they wont be trying to run the horse to her merits just yet
or she is such an easy ride that an apprentice is perfect for her.
I expect this filly to leave her form behind soon today could be the day they go for the
places but they could be waiting, but worth a watch in the market
So Landin looks the solid option
and the Wolves and Leicester races look to have iffy horses in the first three in the betting
On the fast ground at Leicester the 3.40 could play into the hands of the decent flat horse
Speed Company but as we have no way to knowing if he can jump
it would be guessing to back him.
Destrier needs to show he can settle
Melangerie is to short a price
and ex pointers Doc Carver and Robin Deuz Pois shold lack the speed
over 2 miles on fast ground
but if Destrier pulls like a train and Speed Company jumping crumbles they could be plodding on for places
The Wolves race also has iffy marker leaders
the fav has the best form in better class but the price is way to short
and the 2nd fav looks a horse who is very hard to win with, first time blinkers
screams issues so hard to be confident with her
There are a few who are rated in the 40 and 4 four year old whos forms is
terrible.
Without doubt Deuville Diva is the most interesting horse in the race
but it is hard to know if they will be trying with her today
if they are I expect her to go close
either way well worth watching how they approach the race
if they flop out the back then todays not the day
Destrier being backed like defeat is out of the question
but his first run has alarm bells ringing
They must think at home he has learned to settle
but racecourse evidence doesn’t back that up.
The rest of the field are friendless in the market
with the Henderson horse very week out to 9/4.
The money in the Wolves race has come for Baldings horse but
a string of defeats followed by the application of first time blinkers.
doesn’t inspire maximum confidence
Tikkabar is the money horse at Plumpton and may well be better class than these
but never jumping a hurdle in public and a long break
doesn’t pull you in
The three money horses all have major negatives
but the market is saying the opposite
time will tell but I am prepared to take them on
with the prices as they now are
an e/w treble
LANDIN
CIAOD
MELANGERE
could be of interest
all at smaller stakes
in the same races
BOLD IMAGE
DEAUVILLE DIVA
DOC CALVER
For a more speculative play
posted on members!
sorry no time for proper analysis but I like this speculative bet
2.30 Wolverhampton
Exchequer
Easy Tiger
Boost
combination trifecta/tricast.
all 3 likely up with the pace and hopefully hard to pass. taking fitness on trust from 2 of them but trainers can have them fit, exchequer well handicapped.
good luck Chris
will pay well if it comes in