Free Daily Post: 09/11/17 (complete)

VIDEO! Pace horses, micros…

TIPS

none.

 

MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

H Fry Mares (any odds, 10/1 or shorter best)

2.00 MR – Desert Queen

V Williams (16/1 or shorter) (now 0/21,2p last 14 days)

1.40 Newb – Willie Boy WON 10/1  (she’s back!)

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NEW! VIDEO...

Finding front runners as a starting point…. 

 

 

Take a £1 Geegeez Gold Trial HERE>>>

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Today’s horses of interest, touched on in the video…

1.25 T – Shamiran PU oh well sometimes you have to smile… today they decide to hold him up, last. Brilliant. No attempt to even get to the front. Maybe the old boy didn’t have the pace but I can’t think that based on the last run. A couple who hadn’t made all recently, decided to go forwards. I hope that’s not a sign of things to come! 

2.20 L – Tempuran WON 9/2 (made all) 

2.55 L – Monbeg Charmer  WON 4/1>11/4 (made all)

3.45 M – Crookstown UP (hmm, travelled well, didn’t lead..given pace they have gone he could have done. Never mind, still a decent enough day) 

And…not a pace horse but one of interest…

1.40 N – Henry Parry Morgan  2nd 

 

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That’s the lot for today,

GL with any bets

Josh

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

17 Responses

  1. Just a quick message to Steve and Mike. Sent you both an email. My end is showing not sent. Any chance you can confirm you have both received it?
    Thanks

    1. Jarrod
      Many thanks yes I did get it and will study it. I will get in touch if I need a further clarification.
      I have some winners from it but it was more luck than systematic judgement.

      Thanks again.

      Mike

      1. Hi Mike, the other 2 on the 6th were I’m a game changer and Ding ding. Today, well got paddy the Oscars,blue kascade and chestnut ben…..yourgonahearmeroar let me down a little today but nice profit on early prices.

        See how you go.

  2. A little shorter write ups since I am zonked tonight:

    Firmdecisions Chelmsford City Thursday 19:45 1pt e/w-whilst on paper he has been out of form if you look at his AW runs over 7f he hasn’t ran a bad race all year (either placed or has been within 3 lengths in class 3s). Has come down the weights nicely and with the jockey claim he is below his last winning mark. Has 2 wins and a neck 2nd (to a horse who won a class 2 NTO) over course and distance. Has yet to be out of the places in a class 4 AW handicap. Has a 1st and a 2nd when returning within 7 days. I would be more concerned about the draw if he hadn’t won from similar ones in the past over course and distance. He won this last year and money has come in already for him.
    Expelled Chelmsford City Thursday 17:45 1pt e/w-Has come out of a really hot race with the 1st winning, the 2nd winning twice and 4th winning. Trainer is flying with 3 of his last 6 runners winning. He has a solid record around here. Step back up to 6f should suit.
    Quieto Sol Ludlow Thursday 14:20 1pt e/w-Has yet to run a bad race in six handicaps and has ran in some hot races particularly the 4 last year. Does well fresh with a 1st and 2nd off 60+ day lay-offs and last season was just beaten by KK Lexion who is now rated 131. I am expecting a big run.

      1. Fairly certain I cannot take credit for all of that although its nice of them to get all backed. Firmdecisions was actually all over the place since it actually drifted to 14s this morning before getting backed in although the 19:45 looks like a popular race for differing opinions. They just have to run well now particularly as I am running badly at the moment.

    1. My thoughts on Chelmers
      515 Brigand to win , Arden Place may come back to form, ran in big sales race last time, this will suit it better
      545 I’m against Procedure here, for me Expelled not sure to get home but I see Nicks point on the form of its previous race, Think Fanshawe is more of a Kempton man though off the top of my head. Vegas boy been running well and stable horses running well. I’ve taken a chance on Carp Kid and First Drive at the prices. Carp Kid was given an easy time of it last time and ran on under a quiet ride so should improve and First Drive has not been beaten far in any of its runs so far and is visored for the first time
      645 I’ve just dutched the two that have runs under their belt
      715 Middle Kingdom or Petite Jack. Jack had a perfect trip/ride last time and quickened away at the right time, seemed to be stopping though. Kingdom seems to hit a flat spot but stays on very well and I don’t think we’ve seen the best of him yet so I’ll go with Kingdom
      745 Wide open. I’ve just gone with Midnight Macchiato on its last run but really wide open.
      815 Domitilla

      Good luck if you play

  3. 12.40 at Newbury
    4/5 Claimantakinforgan
    6/4 lostintranslation
    20/1 mere Ironmonger
    25/1 fly Du Charmil

    With 10 runners and it being 25/1 bar 3 this at first look looks
    a perfect race to play but on further inspection there are several reasons to
    be wary

    With the favourite odds on the normal play would be to look at the
    2nd and 3rd favourites for an e/w bet
    but with LOSTINTRASLATION only 6/4 e/w doesn’t strike as being a value bet
    so you are looking at the 3rd fav at 20/1 and in this race even the 4th fav at 25/1
    but both of them have been off the track for more than 566 days
    so you could find them both short of fitness and neither running their race
    the rest of the field don’t inspire confidence but anything could pick up the pieces
    if you take that the likelihood of the winner coming from the first two in the market in very high
    then you would be looking at a win play
    but the prices are about right

    Claimantakingforgan was 3rd in the Cheltenham bumper
    so is a class act but has never run over hurdles
    and is coming off a 216 day break

    ok Nicky Henderson gets them fit fto and is a great schooler
    of jumpers but 4/5 is short and he is drifting all the time(put in at 4/7 last night)

    LOST IN TRASLATION is the horse with the hurdles form
    2nd to a Nicholls horse last time and that one has won again
    so that form looks rock solid.

    AT 5/2 lostintraslation would have been the e/w play but at 6/4
    the value has gone

    The two horses at 20/1 and 25/1 have long breaks to overcome
    so working out which one is more forward is a pure guess
    So Although the race looks to have the right shape no bet is recommend

    but a no risk profit can be made on WINDSHAER
    available AT 100/1 with several firms

    A £5 e/w will see make a £95 profit if placed
    on betfair as I right you can lay it for £11 at 9.4 in the place market alone

    So If by some miracle it won you would be over £500 to the good
    if placed you win £95 of the bookies and only lose £92.40 on your betfair place lay
    if out with the washing as expected you lose a £10 to the bookies but win £11(less commission)
    from your place lay
    so the result of your play is
    win +502.60
    placed +2.60
    up +0.55p

    all the time Winshear can be laid at 9.6 or lower as long as you have enough capital in your betfair
    account free bets can be obtained
    if you had £50e/w spread out over several companys then you are looking at a £5000
    windfall it it should win unlikely admittedly but if midrace
    it was running ok with £5k to play with if it dropped to 50/1 or less in running
    a £50 quid lay would be free money

    1. Free money, but you may not have any unrestricted accounts by the end of the day, Peter. No layer out there would allow me a fiver e/w at 100s (I just tried max bet on 365, out of interest, and it was 30p at 100s). Nice thinking, though.
      Paul

      1. Very True Paul,
        I made quite a lot of money trading this way but all my on line accounts are
        restricted

        But in this case William hill are going 100/1
        so in shop they wont mind laying you a £5 e/w on a no hoper
        so if there is a wh and a Paddy power in your area
        and you have a couple of hundred in your betfair account free money
        as I write you can lay £10 at 7.4 in the place market.
        and filmon at 6.4 66/1 £5 e/w lay £11 at 6.4 more free money

      2. Winshear 3rd so if you took the 100/1 for £5 ew(£105 back for a tenner 9.5/1) and laid off at 7.2
        place only for £11 would have won a few quid (£28.60)

        If it hadn’t placed you would still have made 45p
        and if the fav fell at the last bringing down the 2nd fav(not impossible but unlikely)
        you would have £528.60 in your account
        not bad seeing the worst possible outcome was a 45p win

  4. Commet on Racing UK before the 1.00 MR, ‘The 4’s on looks value on the FAV’, then it gets easily beaten by a Skelton Horse! Advice – never say such a thing in horse racing.

    1. Hmm, yes and no.. she was only 0/5,1p under the system…and that place was Royal P who ran perfectly well.. and the others arguably up against it on form/paper anyway.. and she had that Carlisle winner which proved she hadn’t had problems getting them fit… i’ll admit I wasn’t as bullish stake wise as I maybe would have been … plenty of runners in races/type of profile, she wouldn’t normally do well in. A few more duds in the system would have been more of a concern.

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