Members Daily Post: 08/11/17 (complete)

NOTES x2, Section 1, test zone, something to read + video

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

 

FLAT 

Nottingham

2.50 –

Musharrif (all hncps) 11/1UP

Jabbarockie (3yo+, + micro TJC) 14,30 G3 6/1 3rd 

Fantasy Keeper (micro TJC + class) ES 11/1 S3 2nd 11/1>9/2 

3.20 –

Angel Palanas (all hncps)  H3 G3 11/1 S5

Ambitious Icarus (micro dist) ES H3 I1 G3 

3.55 – England Expects (all hncps) H3 G3 7/2 S5

 

JUMPS

Musselburgh

12.45 –

Buckled (hncp hurdle) 14 H1 I3 2/1  2nd 

The Wise One (hncp hurdle, + m1) 14 ES H3 G3 9/2 S3 UP

Maraweh (m1) 16/1 S2 UP

3.00-

Kings Wharf (hncp hurdle) 14  12/1 S2 UP

Superior Command (m1) I3 4/1  WON 4/1>8/1 (11.00 BFSP) 

Sindarban (m2) G3 13/2  S1 (IF 11.00+ BFSP) UP 13/2>7/2 

 

Chepstow

3.10 – Billy Dutton (all hncps) 25/1 S2 UP 40/1 

3.40 –

Alf N Door (all hncps + m1) ES 12/1 S2 S3 3rd 12/1 

Modeligo (all hncps + m1) ES  I3 25/1  S2 S3  UP  40/1 

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +  :  Minimum 10 winners, 25% or bigger win strike rate (angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1/’Strategy 1′. Added on morning of racing along with the price.

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 5th Nov)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 5th Nov)

All Members’ Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info – all  HERE>>> (please flick through,esp if new) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

 

NOTES

Jabbarockie… 3rd (no excuse, he has run his race there I think… controlled from the front, not sure if did too much- I suspect that may just be as good as he is, beaten by the right horse) 6/1, 11/2, seems worth a dart to my eyes…we got stuck into him when he won LTO and I want to be with him one more time. He is unexposed in handicaps, seemingly progressive, trip/ground are fine and the trainer is in decent form. He steps up a couple of classes here which is the questions but there is something about siding with sprinters ‘in form’ and it is an unknown- until he proves he isn’t up to this level, he is well worth a go! It also means he gets a light weight on his back, which may help in this ground. He thumped Awesome Allan LTO who has since come out and hacked up twice himself, so there is some substance to that form. His trainer said he prefers cut in the ground as he’s had sore shins in the past. He will be prominent and I think he has every chance of following up. It could be he isn’t up to this level but I will have a go at 6s to find out.

 Sindarban… 13/2 UP 7/2… hmm… well he was able to dictate, and while keen I think the jock has settled him ok- he has folded tamely again much like LTO- maybe he used up too much gas or there is an issue. He would have been fit. Oh well or so, well he looks well worth a go also given his ‘could be anything’ profile in handicap hurdles, given this is only his second such run in one. He was very well backed at Bangor and something has clearly gone amiss, given how he ran and the subsequent break. Dalgleish is 5/12,6 with all his jumps handicappers here in the last 5 years, 3/4 with those returning after 60+ days off, and he is 2/4,3p when using young Callum Bewley. He does have the most interesting profile in this race and I get the impression he will either hack up here, or run as he did LTO. At that price, it was an easy enough decision for me to roll the dice.

With any luck at least one of these two can go in. They looked the most interesting to my eyes, at the prices, from section 1 above, many of whom seem up against it to my subjective eyes, but you never know!

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3.Micro System Test Zone

T Lacey (any odd, for now) (100/1 2nd yesterday)

12.55 Chep – Triopas

1.25 Chep – Vado Forte

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

The Week That Was… 

I’m attempting to get in the habit of pulling together some weekly notes/thoughts for you all (and me!) from the previous week’s racing… ‘notebook’ horses, other bits and pieces. If nothing else I hope you enjoy flicking through the notes (they won’t be 4 pages every week!)

You can read my first attempt HERE>>> 

While I am here… two horses that have had big races earmarked in the last couple of days… Blaklion appears to be heading to the Becher Chase… given his run in the National and his prominent running style, you would have to think he will run a big race in that…i’d need to check any handicap ratings/weight trends etc as you’d imagine he would be near the top. Ask The Weatherman..  He looked like he would just keep galloping. Whether or not he would get taken off his feet a bit in a classy race like that awaits to be seen. 

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Musseburgh... ‘through the card’

William is off racing on Wednesday and I’ve had a 21 minute flick through the card… it looks a tricky day (all excuses at the ready!) and as always just a ‘light touch’ trawl through…

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Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

35 Responses

    1. No problem albeit save any thanks for post meeting haha.
      We shall see. Sticking with A Thompson and Russell may find a couple with any luck! A few of interest there. As always never let me put you off anything you like yourself etc. I’ll be watching with interest. GL.

  1. Under the banner of “doing something different” … 12.55 Ch Hollow Park 12/1 e\w .. ran very nicely finishing strongly over 3 miles in PTP (Ireland) …. not been seen anywhere close to this trip until this race and its H/cap debut … at the price i think its worth an interest .

  2. Good evening all,

    Relatively new member and hugely appreciative of all the work Josh puts in and also all the member comments that helps to make this service a great one.

    Hope this is ok – a friend of mine and Chris (another newbie) writes a blog during the week, posting his thoughts on the following days racing. He runs a paid service at the weekend but his blog is completely free. It’s always a good read and may help people find a few winners during the NH season.

    His service stats for the last 3 years are 6% ROI last year, 44% ROI the year before and 58% ROI the year before that and so I can assure you, he is definitely clued up! I won’t bore you too much with the hard luck stories from last year as I’m still recovering from them myself. Balnislaw (50/1) and lil rockerfeller (40/1) trading 1/3 IR and losing on consecutive days is a short summary.

    Anyhow, hopefully people will find it useful and can turn his thoughts into profits. Annoyingly, nothing on Musselburgh but a few Chepstow races covered tomorrow.

    https://tvb-midweek.blogspot.co.uk/?m=1

    1. Forgot to mention…..He posts a lunchtime and post-race update every day too, which is useful for trading and notebook purposes.

  3. A few interesting trainer comments:

    Allchilledout Colin Tizzard 3:40 Chepstow
    10/1
    He’s had his wind done and we’ve worked on his shins as well, he had sore shins and that’s why his form was in and out. He’s working beautifully now and I think he’s well handicapped. There’s a race for him at Chepstow in about a fortnight’s time and he does love soft ground.-30/10/2017

    Attest, 3.55 Nott, Warren Greatrex
    10/1
    Progressed well last season and has improved again over the summer. I may run him in a back-end handicap on the Flat, which could be interesting off his mark, as a prep for a handicap hurdle at the November meeting at Cheltenham. He looks progressive still and could be competitive in some of the bigger prizes this season. – 01/11/2017

    Catching On Jonjo O’Neill 3:10 Chepstow
    16/1
    A useful horse in his time, he missed a season with a leg, came back to land a handicap hurdle at Warwick last season with Jack Savage on board, the owner has been kind enough to let some of the young lads ride him. He’s a proper soft-ground, long-distance horse who will probably go back over fences at some stage, after hopefully winning over hurdles at Chepstow [tomorrow] – 07/11/2017.

    I’ve had an ew trixie on those three.

  4. Lathom seems well touted for the 2.50 Not, draw ok, suited by conditions, well handicapped on some form, 5/1.. Elysian Fields, 6.40 KP, is 2/4 at the course, drops back into handicaps and so 12/1 may be value? Clem Fandango, ran well LTO, a listed winner, ran 3rd to Lady Aurelia, back into handicaps, 7/2.

    Good luck.

  5. 15.40 Chepstow Black Narcissus – in handicaps on LH/RH on soft or heavy ground in Class 4 and below on undulating or very undulating tracks: 1311131. The concern is that the two defeats came when rested between races (3 to 25 days: 11111). He is a massive price at 40/1 and the track will suit.

  6. does anyone on here subscribe to inform ratings that are used by josh , if so has anybody found any decent angles to be had with a systematic approach to be made that has made profit by following rules , thanks .

    1. Hi Steve,

      I and a few others use it, as yet I don’t have a system in place but its wicked tool. 33/1 3×20/1 and a 18/1 in the last 4 days. Don’t have time to go into great detail but if you wish to leave your email or mobile I’ll get back to you tonight.

        1. Yep afraid I don’t Steve, I only use it for said ratings pointers above. Albeit will glance at the odd race when I look at a horse in more depth, and the various columns. Nothing systematic sadly. Sounds like Jarrod has found an approach that works though.

          1. I took out a months subscription,but don’t really have time to follow,from my limited experience using,i found that on the aw when you have a top rated,that is also the top lto,and top in the master column does ok

    2. Hi Steve, I have subscribed to Inform Racing for about 5 years, I use them to narrow down a field.
      I have just had a quick look through and In handicap races today the Top Rated last time out have won 7 races so far today.
      I think it’s value for money.

      Cheers Greg

  7. Another abysmal performance from a Venetia Williams horse,0-18 now last 14 days.No doubt that when we have lost our patience she will have a blitz

    1. Yep, at least the Kerry Lee micro clicked into gear in that race though! In fairness that one was making chase debut… RP ran well yesterday..were he tailed off in those conditions/his profile, you would be alarmed. But yep, not firing on all cylinders just yet. But you can make valid excuses for a few of the chase qualifiers.

  8. I do remember a few years back she had a bad start and then a 20/1 winner in late November and went mad the with winners all round

      1. yep, could be we just need to extend it this year – in fairness to her she doesn’t just throw darts at this time of year- she will just not run plenty if all is not right/she doesn’t think they are ready….well certainly within our micro angle. We shall see.

    1. Yep, and he technically hit the #5 monitoring strat, given 11.00+ BFSP, just hit 11.00… I will add an update note on that tomorrow, as that is 20/1 and 11.00 winners this week for Inform, and that looks like ticking along around the min 10% sr…which may be an alternative to strategy 2, esp for those who like fewer bets etc. Or in general.

      1. Hi Josh. In the weekly jumps updates, up to 22 Oct., you had a subsection in #S1 which to the best of my recall ran to 12 runners, 25% SR giving +30 points, 250% ROI. I didn’t save any of the earlier up dates and can’t recall what you combined with the good docs ratings courtesy of Geegeez to highlight these. The earlier comment about Inform prompts me to ask as it may have been Inform related. It is a jaw dropping ROI and I hope you can shine some light as I would certainly follow this thread as my #S1A. Thanks

        1. Hi Patrick, yep I will update with the Inform, which was #5 (monitoring)… exactly the same approach as S1, but with the Inform ratings instead of Geegeez. It’s SR is lower, at 10% or so, but ROI massive, and with two big winners this week has gone through +100 points I think. If you don’t wish to follow S2 systematically, S1 + S5 could well be the way to go…
          Your Q… yep that was for Geegeez rated who also had a HRB rating… I will do go through since start of Sep and see how they have got on, and see how any multiple quals have done… (ie 10/1+, both a geegeez + inform say etc) .. they are more useful to know whether to be more confident say, but of course very small numbers… Geegeez and HRB 10/1+ were 3/12 or so for whole of Jan-April from memory. Will dig it out/re cap etc.
          Josh

    1. Ah good to hear, I’m was sat there hoping you may have backed John William, Blue Kascade and the Russell winner, who drifted like mad and got the job done. Or two of those at least. Don’t think I pointed you to any more but I would take that every time for a day at the races… first two were hammered in so hope you may have beat SP.

      1. Thanks Josh for clarifying re the system bets…..and also for your blindin’ look thru the card at Muss. earlier. That was an incisive 21 mins on your part! Well done and thanks

        1. (correction to earlier comment… #5, inform (10/1+ etc) is not through +100 points, now on +62.5 BFSP, 70% ROI to date.

  9. yep,got the 2 sandy thomas winners and got done in the first( by a flyer) for a treble,also hand superior command and manged to get 17/2 on course

  10. Terrific Sp@2a fpr Ian today…… Paddy the Oscar…Start to finish winner……i took 14/1 which as you say Josh, soon pulls back losses. Now to press on. lol.
    Well done….. Jockey rode so well… a lesson for some to follow.

    Tony Mc.

    1. Nice wasn’t it? Thanks Ian!

      Not for the first time, I made a mess of my stake on one of the horses with only half a point ew on Waterloo Warrior. Thankfully it didn’t hurt as much as last time, when I only had half a point ew on Midnight Gypsy.

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