Free Daily Post: 16/09/17 (complete)

Portland Handicap shortlist..

Just the Portland Handicap Shortlist today….

 

Doncaster: Portland Handicap

20 years

Stall 1-4: 0/77, 9p

20/20 , 20/1< or shorter SP (0/159,21p, 22/1+)

10 years (10/208,40p)

10/10 had 1-4 runs in previous 90 days

  • 0: 0/5,1p
  • 5+ : 0/68, 6p

9/10 aged 4 or 5  (5yo… 6/54,11p,+35)

  • 3yo: 0/23,3p
  • 6yo: 0/29,2p
  • 7yo: 1/27,5p
  • 8+: 0/18,3p

9/10 had 0-1 runs at track (2+, 1/95,15p)

8/10 had 0-7 places in handicaps (6/10, 1-4)

Others…

5/10 had 1-9 career runs (5/14 runners,6p, +46)

  • 6/10 had 1-6 handicap runs (6/32,9p,+53)

9+ runs this season: 0/42, 3p

6+ handicap wins: 0/27,3p

3+ wins this season: 0/21,1p

*

Trainers: D Marnane (2/2), all others one win only. (selected…Varian..1/4,3p) K Ryan (0/24,5p)

**

Shortlist: 

Looking at… Age 4/5, NOT stall 1-4, 0-4 runs in 90 days, 0-1 runs at track, 0-2 wins this season… in the last 10 years… 9/43, 19 places… + 82 BFSP… those stats leave 4, and that is where my £5 confetti will likely be heading..

Vibrant Chords / A Momentofmadness/ Hakam / Aleef  (last 20 winners all 20/1< SP) 

 

**

That’s the lot for today.

GL with any bets

Josh

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

8 Responses

  1. Based upon the last two days my tips should come with a health warning – However I have put my betting boots on again and here are some early thoughts for Saturday.

    Dan Troop, 3.15 CH, is up a lot in the weights but won well LTO and so can go in again.
    Capri, 3.35 Don, seems a worthy favourite in the St Leger and Coronet may chase him home.
    Eller Brook, 2.55 Mus, steps into Hcp company for the first time and is unexposed.
    Stake Acclaim, 1.50 Don, seems well suited by the race conditions.

  2. One I really like tomorrow is Perfect Spy in the 1.55 @ Lingfield. The trainer’s handicap debutants are in red hot form with the last 5 finishing 1-1-2-2-1. Trainer has an exceptional record at Lingfield both on turf and on the AW, turf record is 4/9, 7 places in the last 2 years. He’s also had a few HCP debut winners at the track although those have been on the AW. Cosgrave is booked for the ride and they are 5/17, 9 places in the last 2 years. By Nathaniel and they have a semi-reasonable record over C&D with another 3YO finishing 3rd in a listed event this year, so a class 5 should be within its reach. It’s performed ok in its maidens, twice finishing within 5 lengths and once beaten by 8.5, and is now being upped in trip which should suit on breeding, Nathenial’s also have a good S/R on soft ground. Cumani is only sending this one to the track where he gets good results and booked a top jockey for the first time with the horse so I will be having a decent bet at 9/1.

    Throwing some change at Grasmere in the 3.50 at Chester at 25/1. The trainer is
    2/9, 3 places at the track in the last 2 years and has booked Jo Gordon. The trainer has a good record with his 2YO’s at Chester in September 2/8, 5 places. Bred by Society’s Rock they are 1 from 1 over C&D. Draw looks ok given the conditions it looks like being high is the place to be in the sprints (the complete opposite when its firmer). Its also front run and been prominent in its first 2 races which again is a positive here.

    I think Defoe will win the big one. I liked Stradivarius but with more rain expected Im not sure he’ll handle the ground. Defoe is 100% on soft and looking at the sires record its the strongest of the main contenders over C&D in Soft.

    Someone i follow mentioned D K Travel in the 6.15 at Musselburgh. Over from Ireland and the trainer is 3/4 here and has booked Luke Morris to take the ride. I’ve also had a go on this at 11/2.

    1. Followed you in with these James. Well researched decent prices,put all 4 in a ew lucky 15. Win or lose they are all good selections,well worth an interest.

    2. Sorry guys not my day today, not even close with any of those in honesty, fairly depressing. Think it’ll be a case of keeping my powder dry until the jumps properly starts not been a great month

  3. Funnily enough my main tipster (not sure if its the same person) has also put up D K Travel so fingers crossed.

    Its been a torrid week for my tips so I would advise the same health warning as Martin. I thought Intense Style was interesting the in the 16:50 at Lingfield. Its the first time he runs over 7f in soft ground over a straight track since his 2nd at Doncaster in June. That was off 8lbs higher in a decent class 3 and ahead of a number of solid handicappers. This is considerably easier. Is drawn well in stall 7 and should get a nice tow into the race behind Awesome Allan. Jockey has a solid 2/8, 5p +7.5 when riding for the trainer and looked a decent bet.

    I also wanted a bet on Sennockian Star in the 17:00 at Chester. Is now 5lbs below his last winning mark. He like it here with a 2/6, 3p at the track. Franny who arguably rides Chester better than anyone gets on board and he is 2/3 on him at the track. Is well drawn in stall 2 with the other like pace angles in stalls 7 and 9 so Franny will have the option to either take the lead or slot in behind them. I don’t think he will have any issues with the step up in trip.

    Finally I wanted to throw a small dart on Battle of Marathon who looks too big. The handicapper has taken a chance by dropping him a lot in a short period of time. Five starts ago he was 2.5l 5th in the Royal Hunt cup last year off a mark of 110. Since than he raced in a grade 2, had two runs of a 4+ month breaks and raced on the AW. Today he races off 97. It is also a bonus that his regular jockey who was on for 4 of his best runs last year returns to the saddle. He was 3rd in last year’s Lincoln so we know he handles the track. Even if he doesn’t win today I suspect he will be winning soon.

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