TIPS
Kerry National
Potters Point – 2 points win – 8/1 (WH/BF/PP/BetfS) WON 8/1
Bay of Freedom – 1 point win – 12/1 (gen) 3rd
Kilcarry Bridge – 1/2 point win – 25/1 (gen) UP
Viva Steve – 1/2 point win – 10/1 (gen) 4th 14/1
(4 points total) (+14 points on race)
Shortlist: those four above!
Notes… if you don’t wish to watch video…
Potters Point…in the stats/trends ‘long list’… unexposed yet hardy profile, could be anything in handicap chases/well handicapped. Like most in here has to prove he stays, and in this ground. Ground looks ok and is a big strapping type. Will race prominently. Was the one unexposed one I thought most likely to step forward in conditions and ‘could’ win well. He will race prominently. 8/1 well worth a stab.
Bay of Freedon…also on stats/trends ‘long list’ and ticked two further big positives…track experience and ran over hurdles LTO. Ground will be fine, just whether it is fine over 3n in a strongly run race. But he is unexposed and this looks like the plan. Light weight and another prominent racer. He should be up there for a time, and we shall see if he can grind it out over the last couple when it matters. He is rock bottom of HorseRaceBase ratings which I never like and niggles at me. There is a chance his form just isn’t up to this level. 12/1 worth a poke as positives outweigh the niggles.
Kilcarry Bridge.. in form,ground fine,slight stamina niggle… but he should be up there and may attempt to make all. All of that combined made me want to have a dart at 25/1. Not impossible he gets out and stays out, or in any case is in the right place.
Viva Steve… horses returning after breaks have a poor record in this…but the record of the horse fresh is superb, inc last year when running for Fergal for the first time. So, that tipped the balance. He is one of the few in here who I am sure will see out this trip. Stays further and has won in soft..heavy a niggle, but less for him than most in here! I thought he would race prominently also and the yard is in great form. At 10s I wanted 1/2 a point on..i’d be gutted if he won this unbacked. I suspect he may not be good enough but proven stamina/fit/fresh can get you a long way in these races.
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VIDEO Preview...decided to record one of these…’only’ the 17 minutes in length! 🙂 (a walk through the stats/trends, the four horses above,a few other points, pace set up etc)
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MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES
G McPherson (20/83,32p, +244 BFSP since 2010)
3.30 Uttox – Werenearlyoutofit (any odds)
Fanshawe Kempton
7.45 – Master Archer
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That will be all for today, once the video is up.
GL with any bets.
p.s….
FANCY OWNING A RACEHORSE?? (or share of..)
I have taken the plunge with a Juvenile hurdler and you are welcome to join me. You can find out more HERE>>>
27 Responses
Will be interesting what you come back with on the Kerry National Josh. I think I have it narrowed down to Bay Of Freedom, Potters Point, Arkwrisht, Champagne Harmony and Bentelimar with a preference for Bay of Freedom given the solid record of horses which have won at the track before and those having a prep run over hurdles. (and those who have had their last run over hurdles and have won here before are 3/6 in the past 15 years)
Will write up tomorrow…but looks a tough one, mainly as could be a bog.. and ground + ground/trip is an unknown for so many in here, with plenty looking like they will hate it. Potters Point looks most interesting, and I have all same points down for Bay of Freedom (well not that nifty looking race micro!!)…did a stats/trends long list, and also ‘attacked it cold’. I have a niggle over his lack of experience and recent chase form, but those with 4/5 chase runs have good record in this and clearly looks like a plan. Handles heavy,whether he sees this trip out in it we shall see. Usually races prominently, so at 12s, went with him. And the other two I kept looking at for one reason or another. 4 point the limit so with any luck have staking right!
Yeah I also like the fact that he won a chase at this festival last year and had his first run at the track (4/16, 7p for horse that have although in fairness none recently) and Fahey is 3/4 in chases at the Festival.
I too like Bay of Freedom and am on at 12/1. I also like Arbre De Vie but it is as low as 11/2 now.
Looks like Ben has gone for the first 3 on my list so as well as having a bet on Arwrisht on his account had to have a couple of quid on the other 2.
Yep did have a flick through his thoughts… think we will all be happy if one of all our main two wins, just a big big stamina question, esp in this ground. Not sure he may be tough enough,or good enough jumper as yet..but may relish it,who knows! Can make small cases for most given not many horses proven in conditions. GL
Well between you and Ben, that’s a fairly average start to the Jumps season proper!! Great stuff Josh. It must be that holiday you had! Thank you. Cheers Ben
I just spent over half an hour doing most of a write up before the PC died on me so this is short and sweet:
Listowel 16:05 Bay of Freedom-fits trends, prominent, hurdle prep and past win at the track a plus; trainer is 3/4 in chases at the festival; had first start here in a bumper also a bonus; trainer is great form
Uttoxeter 15:00 After Eight Sivola-Won on last 2 seasonal reappearances; jockey takes off 7lbs and has finished 1st or 2nd in 5/10 of his last 10 starts including an impressive ride LTO; is 2/3 in class 4 handicap hurdles (has won a class 2 off a higher mark) and back in a c4 hurdle for the first time in over 2 years; step up should suit; won’t mind good or soft ground; trainer has good record in hurdles here and is 2/4, 3p in handicaps with horses returning off 60+ days break; hood comes off to freshen him up
Doncaster 16:20 Pillar of Society-only horse proven on soft; only front runner; has won over 8f on soft; trends bad for those who finished 1st LTO (0/19) and for those who raced over 6f LTO (0/22) which knocks out the front 4 in the market; drop back to 7f will suit; form of his race 2 starts ago has worked out very well; Hannon/Levey are 4/19,10p with 3yr old handicappers at the track including 2/5, 3p over course and distance
Carlisle 14:10 One of only 2 who have proven soft ground form and ran a solid race at the track finishing 1.5l 5th in a race which has worked out very well (winner running in a class 2 at Donny tomorrow); jockey is well worth the 5lbs and trainer does well here and is 4/15 with horses making their handicap debut.
is that Tough Remedy in the 2-10C Nick ?
Yeah sorry it should be Tough Remedy.
Doncaster card not really for me today just a couple of small ew’s but i have had a go at the pick 7.
Race 1: 14:20 Doncaster
2
Shabaaby
T: Owen Burrows J: Jim Crowley 2/1
Race 2: 14:50 Doncaster
6
Guzman
T: R A Fahey J: P Hanagan 10/1
Race 3: 15:20 Doncaster
1
Final Venture
T: P T Midgley J: Oisin Murphy 13/8
Race 4: 15:50 Doncaster
4
Hitman
T: Rebecca Bastiman J: T G McLaughlin 14/1
Race 5: 16:20 Doncaster
5
Six Strings
T: R A Fahey J: P Hanagan 7/1
Race 6: 16:50 Doncaster
5
Mirage Dancer
T: Sir Michael Stoute J: R L Moore 5/4
Race 7: 17:20 Doncaster
5
Singeur
T: Rebecca Bastiman J: D Fentiman 11/1
seems to be quite a punt going on Viva Steve 4-05L now into 9-1 , i was a bit late getting on but took the 12’s last night.
thank you very much for a few tips and right up expecially with english horses
mARIA 13/9/17
thanks Maria… I don’t venture over the water too often… this race, the Irish National and the odd other one/hurdle race… but there will plenty on these shores once the jumps season hots up proper.
Boom well done Josh
Kevin
Cheers Kevin, I am buggered in this game over time, if I can’t grow the bank steadily in muddy 3m+ handicap chases! great when it comes of. Good profit on the race.
Well that was fun. If only I did the tricast! I think from a financial point of view that was probably the best result since get place money on mine.
Blimey that was close… had nothing on the second…and tanked…took 2 fences with him and still nearly won. But for those errors he wins, but Lisa’s position has put him under pressure etc. And has stayed out full. Won’t complain with that, 3 of top 4, Ben, like you, top 3. Super stuff.
Yeah I can imagine you were a little more nervous than me although in fairness it was £25 win vs £7.5 ew vs £15ew and £12.5 win so would have made considerably less if the 2nd won. Hopefully a sign of things to come for the new season cracking tipping mate.
Nice one Josh! I’m just kicking myself for not doing the crazy forecasts and tricasts.
Oh i kick myself after every race, but I didn’t have anything on the second and no doubt would have left it out of the crazy bets. They always look good after the race, I still haven’t mastered sorting them out before haha.
Brilliant tipping boys.
Good stuff Josh. Also had a nuisance call from VC today telling me about a free £25 bet so had a bit e/w on Nick’s choice.
Well, backing the top 4 is never a bad place to be in haha…bet you didn’t know where to look or what to cheer! Good stuff. A good result all round. I would have been a bit peeved if the second had won haha. Been staring at him for a while, try and not make same mistake again…was on stats longlist, low weight, in form, plenty of hurdles form in the slop, and evidence that would stay/unexposed over trip…similar reasons to winner, and those reasons have just won out (race more prominently, bit more exp over fences)… just. Second has so much in hand. Always plenty to ponder, but will enjoy the win.
A good day all round Josh, the winner of the Kerry National plus a couple of winners at Doncaster using the systems you posted in the research article from members section a couple of days ago. Today has pushed my bank to a new high, hopefully a sign of things to come for the winter racing.
Good stuff Jamie, sounds like your pins landing on enough of the right ones! Which is superb, esp when using the notes etc. We like betting banks hitting new highs! Slow and steady wins the race. I am as bullish as I can be that over time, in muddy 3m+ handicap chases, I will do just fine. I need to update the results, but I think they must be around +85- +100 points for the year, inc Cheltenham. +75 or so in 2016. They tick along. (all jumps ‘tips’ that is, in these free posts,+ Festival week)
well done josh.
the free post and the members posts have done well again.
the gift that keeps on giving.
happy days.
Some football bets for a Wednesday evening – Monaco away 7/2 and Sevilla away at 4/1+. Also Fulham at home at a shade of odds on as a banker.