Saturday… A bit to get stuck into below… some micro qualifiers and big race trends/stats/pointers for three races. There are shortlists for the two on Saturday. Use them how you please. With any luck they highlight the winners. Below those is a video preview for Stratford. I happily whizz through a card if a member requests it, and I have time to do so. With any luck you find it useful, or take a horse or something away from it.
Let’s crack on…
Flat 2017: 60+ Day Trainers
4.35 Leop- Song of Namibia (any)
5.35 Leop- Pursuasive (any)
7.20 – Glastonbury Song / Noivado (both any odds)
Big Race Stats/Trends/Pointers
4.10 Haydock: Old Borough Cup (aka 32 Red Casino Handicap!)
16/16 ran 8-60 days ago
11/101,28p,+20… ran 16-30 days ago
Drawn 16+ : 0/38,7p
14/16 – Top 4 LTO
13/16 – Top 6 in market
6/16 – Aged 3
14/16 – Aged 3-5
10 years: 10/150,35p
10/10 Top 4 at least once on last 3 starts: (0/24,0p did not)
10/10 – had 0 runs in class or 3-5: (1-2: 0/37,6p 6+ : 0/61,8p)
10/10 – 2-5 career wins (0/34,4p outside this)
10/10 – 0-8 places (inc wins) in handicaps (9+, 0/35,1p… place was 9 places)
9/10 – had same or higher OR versus last race: (lower… 1/61,10p)
3lb or higher: 7/40,13p, +56 (inc last 4 winners)
9/10- 1-3 handicap wins: 1/61,7p outside this.
8/10 – placed on last run: 8/60,12p
8/10- Top 3 LTO (7/10 Top 2)
9-10 on back: 0/12,3p
Down 2.5f or more from last run: 0/27,5p
WON LTO: 5/24,9p, +14
Mark Johnston: 3/19,5p / John Gosden: 2/5,5p, +11
Top 4 at least once last 3/2-5 career wins / 0-8 places in hncps / ran 8-60 days ago / Same or higher OR vs last run/1-3 handicap wins… leaves….
Gawdawpalin / Sepal / Compton Mill / Ravenous
WON LTO is a big pos: Sepal/Compton Mill (who happen to be only two from that list with proven winning form in soft/heavy)
Agg 3-5 a pos: counts against Ravenous.
Do with that as you please.
7.20 Leop: Sovereign Path Handicap – 7f
15/15 – Top 7 LTO
15/15 – 20/1< SP
Clear Favs: 7/18 runners,9p, +16
10/10 – placed on at least one of last four starts (0/26,2p had not)
10/10 – 0-5 career wins (6+, 0/32,4p)
10/10 – 0-3 handicap wins (4+, 0/36,5p) (9/10, 0-1 hncp wins)
10/10 – Top 6 LTO (7th worse, 0/62,9p)
10/10- ran 11-15 days ago or 21-45 days (tentative as stats outside these two are small)
9/10 – ran no further than 9f in career (1/48,7p had) (9f max exactly… 4/8,7p, +27)
9/10 – 1-6 distance runs (7+, 1/60, 14p)
9/10 – their last win when aged 2-4
Jim Bolger: 2/5,3p, +18 (but…no runner this year, annoyingly)
Top 7 LTO/placed at least once last 4 starts / 0-5 career wins / 0-3 hncp wins… leaves 8… so… 1-6 distance runs (a 9/10 fig so may have missed winner!).. leaves…
Noivado / Silverkode / Tempera
-Silverkode has run in ‘ideal’ rest pattern,may be a positive.
2.00 Curr: Sprint Handicap
19/20 sent off 12/1< SP
10/10 – ahed 3-5 (6+, 0/34,5p)
9/10 – ran in race worth 4-21k LTO
8/10 – carried 8-12 to 9-6 (exc claims) (8/46,19p, +32)
8/10- 1-4 places (inc wins) in handicaps (2/85,16p outside of this)
OR 101+ .. 0/12,0p
Cork LTO: 3/5,4p
Curragh LTO: 0/38,6p
Matt (a member) got in touch asking for a video preview of Stratford…which I am happy to do, time allowing. Sometimes this goes very well, other times not so much! i did this ‘live’ and it is a solid 40 mins… the first 15 looks at a few stats reports to find some ‘starting points’ – and you may take note of a few other runners throughout the country. I then flick through the card using trainer form / speed ratings/ instant expert tab/pace/ etc to focus on any horses of interest. It looks a tricky card and I wouldn’t be bullish on much. If you do watch it I suggest you do so with a notepad… there may be the odd horse highlighted you wish to take a closer look at. There are no ‘tips’ in this, more info etc to use as you please…
That’s the lot for Saturday.
GL with any bets.