Members Daily Post: 25/08/17 (complete)

(New.. Newmarket thoughts in comments…) Section 1 test zone / York x2 / Bet of the Day / + Video / + Notes

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

 

Ffos

3.55 – Brief Visit  (all Hc’s)   ES 16/1 2nd 10/1 

4.30 – Ocean Gale  (all Hc’s) G1 3/1 UP

5.00 –

Sir Billy Wright  (micro age)    ES H3 I3 10/3 UP

Leontes  (all H’cs)    ES 7/1 UP

Satchville Flyer  (micro age)    ES G3 12/1 UP

5.35 – Kingstreet Lady  (all Hc’s) G3 10/1  UP

 

Newm

3.15 – Deyaarna  (2YO) 12/1 UP

 

York

1.55 –

Appeared  (all Hc’s, micro TJC)  9/1 UP

Fidaawy  (3yo+) 14/1 WON 14/1> 12/1 

Al Neksh  (micro age) 9/1 UP

 

Good

6.45 – Sussex Ranger  (BONUS 3YO) H1 I1 G3 4/1 UP

 

Ham

7.35 – Archi’s Affaire  (3yo+) H3 4/1

8.05 –

Hot Hannah  (3yo+) H3 I3 11/4

Sir Domino  (micros age, going) I3  25/1

Reflation  (micros age, going) I3 20/1

 

Salis

7.55 –

Calvinist  (all Hc’s,3yo+) I1G3 18/1

Really Super  (micros class, dist) H1 7/2

**

KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers from the report HERE

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to 13/08/17) 

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to 13/08/17) 

Test Zone:  | CD Jockeys: Read HERE>>>| Irish Angles: Read HERE>>> C Appleby/York Ebor: Read HERE>>>

Welcome Email/Note: READ HERE>>>

Main Stats Guides (used for section 1 quals) : Summer Stats: Read HERE>>> | Jumps (all non summer only tracks): Read HERE>>

**

 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

VIDEO!!!

 

On it’s way.. I attacked the above list ‘live’/cold… and 50 minutes later had ambled my way through it! So, for those of you who like the videos and have nothing better to do with your time, you are in for a treat! 🙂 I’d planned to whizz through York but ran out of time. I will post it as soon as ready but some notes/thoughts below including… drum roll please… hold onto your hats…

A Bet of The Day! (‘test!’)

1.55 York- Fidaawy – 1 point win – 12/1 – WON 12/1 

Clearly with various other qualifiers in the race I am playing with fire here but if you watch the vid you will see why he caught my eye.. he is unexposed enough, Stoute likes to bring them along slowly, it is his second run at the trip, I can forgive any horse a shocker at Epsom, and Ascot for that matter but he was bumped/squeezed/eased when going well enough there. The yard is in cracking form. Finally the pace caught my eye… nothing seemed to come from behind yesterday and in any case there isn’t much pace in this.. he could lead or certainly be up there with no excuse. All in all, I just thought 12s looked generous. It could be he is just out of form but I will roll the dice at that price.

*

Other Notes…

Brief Visit.. well ES so not one to overthink… I struggled to be overly confident and as per vid would stake accordingly…as you know I like to take a view as some clearly look more interesting than others.. I have a base level and go from there.. he will get a £5 at least but that may be it.I may have another stare at him and go to 10s but should stick to initial instincts (my £5-£20 range for strat quals)

5.00 FL – probably no obvious reason to be against any ES and not back them.. albeit they all have questions to answer. Money coming for Satchville which is interesting..big rise in class the questions.. the Balding horse is the most lightly raced but you’d wand to see market support I think, given the break. Suspect I may have a saver on Billy, with hope one of others romps in.

3.15 New – a rare first time out 2 year at Newmarket from SBS – given he is in form, and on that basis alone, I will have a small interest nibble. Appleby seems to have the upper hand in that but you never know. Will probably drift and coast home in his own time but at those odds, i will take a small chance.

Sussex Ranger.. no reason to be against that treble rated qual… fav has the odd question in context of his price.. 4s, 7/2 seemed decent for the Moore horse, hopefully he can build on the treble rated results to date. Solid chance to my eye.

8.05 Ham… The two Holmes horses look right up against it but there is the odd reason why a revival may be forthcoming. Sir Domino looks most interesting of the pair, I don’t think I will be able to resist some change, £2.5s, at BFSP on the pair. Market may guide but it is a poor race. Hot Hannah will hopefully win if neither of those two do, but 11/4 was on short side for me.

7.55 Sals – Calvanist.. I will have to have a nibble at 16s… you would like to see market support.. in essence its a big drop in class, mark is plummeting and gets the headgear/tongue tie combo for the first time. He just looks woefully out of form.. but those are the reasons why you wouldn’t fall off your seat if he ran better. So, at that price, I will roll the £5 ‘on the nose’ dice. When this yard fancy one they seemingly get stuck in, so we shall see. I suspect he is just out of sorts but you never know. Only his 8th turf run of his life.

 

So, some of interest. We shall see how that lot get on. I did mention all horses in the video but if they haven’t been mentioned above then they are not carrying any of my money. Albeit Al Neksh probably will get a bit given the York notes below. I fear Frankie may have him too far back in a race that may not be run to suite.. but will be run to suite for the Stoute horse.

That’s the lot.

 

**

Well that was a fun day to return home.. a much needed?? (i think so) Flat ES winner at 11/1 + a  ‘treble rated’ winner, to compliment a couple of York notes winners at 11/1 and 8/1, and a 14/1 winner for the De Bromhead test micro. I will get onto update the advised strategies/results etc asap.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

None.

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

YORK EBOR: Notes HERE>>>

Micro System Quals (Haggas)

3.00- Mubtasim (m1/m2) UP

4.15 – Nicklaus (m1/m2)

4.50 – Battered (m1) 2nd 8/1 / Mojito (m1/m2) WON 10/3 

*

‘Notes’ (horses hitting other pointers from notes above)

I have put a next to those that hit stats with at least 5 winners in the period. You may find that of some use or not, but as always with notes like this some stats look stronger than others…of course we all know that those with no stars will now win!! …

1.55 –

Red Galileo

Erik The Red *

Game Starter

Al Neksh

2.25 – Dal Harraild *

3.00-

So Beloved (if 8/1<)

Suedois (if 8/1<) * (hits what could be called a mini micro system … 3yo+ race, Age 3-6, 8/1<, as did Lincoln Rocks…!) 

4.15 –

Commander Han (if 16/1<) *

Nicklaus *

Safrani (if 25/1<) *

4.50 – La Rav

*

I think that is the lot, do shout if I have missed any!

Update:

I think after day 2 of York, Haggas Micros are -4 (just 1 point on, inc if ‘double’ qual)

The ‘notes’ for those that ‘qualified’ found 2 winners I think from Nick’s list as per comments, the 10/1 Ryan winner and Lincoln Rocks, +8. So, they were +11. Hopefully with any luck some of you may have backed one or both of those. But, they are finding winners/decent priced horses running well which is always the main starting point. Fingers crossed a few more go in over next couple of days. The 5 trainers in focus all seem to be in some sort of form anyway.

 

**

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

12 Responses

  1. Quick word on Calvanist since I had a quick look at him last night. He is dropping effectively 14lbs from his last run so he was on my radar but given his form has been so bad I could bring myself to tip him although did have a nibble. Jockey and trainer also have the odds on favorite in the race before (jockey’s only 2 rides of the day). I personally believe in the theory that if the first one goes in the 2nd one is much more likely to do so so would certainly be more interested in him when I know the result of the 7:25.

  2. Through the card??? At Newmarket… a couple of mates back home are off to our local track (s) again, Newmarket, and have asked for ‘tips’ – oh joy!…

    Prob best ignoring this lot albeit couple in here look interesting… I expect the shorties to take a few again, as has been the way at July course on recent meetings, but you know me, I have to take them on…

    1.35 – Admired / Light Relief (recent trainer form main way in,hopefully a surprise and top 2 turned over..hmm!)

    2.05 – Diva Star / Ziarah (similar reasoning to above)

    2.40 – Rumpole (prob bet of day on card, 4s.. hopeful of making all back on better ground, drop back in trip)

    3.15 – TTP horse EW above, Deyaarna, forecast with the Appleby shortie??.. 5 to beat 7. Mug.

    3.45 – Desert Dream / Ply

    4.20 – a ‘go to the bar race’ – Royal Line if you had to have a bet at 2/1!

    4.55 – off to that bar again… Intense Tango… will try and make all, TT back on.. not hopeful he will stay there but at the prices that’s where my track side change would probably go. Top 2 look to have it, Sir Mark’s do just get better and better once they win.

    5.25 – Stanhope… 7s looks decent here.. hopeful he could go very close, following up a CD win couple starts back, ran OK the last day.

    Do with that as you please.

    1. I hope you dont mind me adding but Ziarah is my only other personal “nibble” of the day. I couldn’t tip the horse given the break and the step up from 5f to 7f but she was only 2 lengths behind Madeline in her last race who was 2nd in the Lowther yesterday and James Tate is one of the hottest trainers arond plus I thought the Mosse booking was eye-catching particularly with his record on 2 yr olds.

  3. Nice one Josh with Fidaawy! Always good to start our day with a 12/1 winner. You will have to go on holiday more.

    1. Cheers gents.. ha, yep.. just booking my flights!! 🙂 Yep 5 stats picks in that across board inc the 1 2 3 4… no exotic bets for me in that sadly! Will take my decent enough on the nose return.

  4. great call josh had my phone on at work this listed to your video message twice the more i listed about stoutes horse the better it sounded hats off to you josh . i did back it as well paul

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