Members Daily Post: 23/08/17 (complete)

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FLAT

Bath

1.45 –

Silverrica (3yo+) ES UP
Showthewayavrilo (3yo+) ES I3 UP

2.50 – Eugenic (all Hc’s, micro dist) ES H3 I3 UP

3.25 – Chilli Jam (4yo+) G3 3rd 

5.10 – Wassail (4yo+) 2nd 14/1

5.40 – Nutini (3yo+) ES G1 UP 

 

Carl

1.35 – (2YO) Higher Rank WON 3/1 

4.25 – Savannah Moon (3yo+, micro season runs) G3 WON 7/1

 

York

1.55 – A Momentofmadness (3yo+) H3 I1 G3 4th 7/1 

4.15 – Theydon Grey (micro age) H1 UP 

 

JUMPS

Worc (summer)

5.00 – Skint (HcCh) I3 UP

5.30 –

Ink Master (all Hc’s, micro TJC) ES I3 UP

Poker School ( season runs) H3 2nd 

6.00 – Beau du Brizais (all Hc’s) ES UP

8.00 –

Chantecler (all Hc’s) H3 2nd 

Mister Dick (micro class) I3 UP

 

**

There are various quals etc posted in the comments below, esp test zone.

GL with any bets today.

Josh

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

26 Responses

  1. Bit of an odd one for me Geoff Potts in the 3.15 at Carlisle.

    I really liked him as a 2yo but trained by Jeremy Gask who eventually got a win out of him at 3. Lto was his first start for R Fahey and I happened to see it but didn’t remember the name in time. Pulled hard but won easily.

    I put him in my tracker and here he is popping up at Carlisle, up in class to Cl4, dropped in distance with Tony Hamilton up.

    Here are my comments from 2015
    Geoff Potts – Very green in pre parade, calling and prancing. Strong well proportioned, medium sized but looks bigger and potentially the best here. Poor draw and a bit slowly away, ran on well with just a reminder. Big question as to whether trainer will be able to contain his exuberance and extract the potential.78+ maybe 80s

    He is off 70 tomorrow. Draw ok. Won on soft so g/s should be ok. Picture attached. Slight concern that neither trainer or jockey have a fantastic strike rate at Carlisle…around 12% so not disastrous. 4/1 looks ok to me.

    Here are my notes from horses to follow for Tathmeen in the Nursey at york tomorrow. Main concern is Crowley up although he seems to be ok on 2yos at York albeit from a small sample.

    Tathmeen – Richard Hannon – Tathmeen – Handsome, big athletic colt, still a bit rough in his coat on his flanks. Suffered, I think, a little from having Crowley aboard who is not at his best at Goodwood, only 8% on 2yos at Goodwood v 15% overall on turf. Not to say he is not tremendous improvement on his predecessor. He jumped off ok and pushed along a bit early, the horse then got lit up mid and did a bit too much in the middle of the race. He was then eased in good time though. Maybe more improvement in him than most. 90 In fact almost all of the runners from the Masar race at Goodwood should be taken note of nto. 3rd of 7 behind Invincible Army at Nmk 23rd June. Not supported. One more chance. Won poor 6f Novice at Newbury at 4/6 by 6 lengths. Should go on from this.

    Hugh

    1. Personally i like Tarboosh in this one, trainer has a strong record at Bath and only sending 1 tomorrow. Horse has been running well recently and is well bred

      1. My main tipster has also tipped up Tarboosh but personally looks like a nightmare race with the 8 of the 10 runners have either finished 1st or 2nd in the last 2 runs and you can make a case for most of them.

  2. A copy of Nick’s post from the other thread –

    Tomorrow:
    ES qualifiers:
    2.50 Bath Eugenic
    1.45 Bath Showmethewayavrilo
    1.45 Bath Silverrica
    5.40 Bath Nutini

    Ebor Runners: (these should be ALL the runners trained by the five trainers Josh identified but you will need to cross-reference them with his notes as to which are most likely to do well)
    Haggas:
    4.15 York Theydon Grey
    4.50 York Green Fortune
    OMeara:
    1.55 York Edward Lewis
    1.55 York Move In Time
    1.55 York Out Do
    1.55 York Watchable
    Ryan:
    4.50 York Luis Fernandez
    4.50 York Queens Sargent
    4.50 York Savalas

    Nothing for Luca or Saeed. No CDJ qualifiers either.

    1. Thanks Neil. Might as well add the 2nd part:

      Looks like Green Fortune qualifies for Haggas on Micro 1, 6f, 2YO races and 2 win angles. At the moment only Edward lewis qualifies for OMeara on SP and the 3+ YO Age 3-6 angles. All 3 of Ryan’s are currently 16/1 or lower and qualify in a 2YO race which is a plus, as is the 1 run at York for Savalas and Queens Sargent and a bigger plus for Savalas if he stays at 7/1 or lower.

  3. One i like in the 4.00 in Bath Light of Joy, the trainer has had 4 winners from 9 that he’s sent the track with 6 placing. He’s only sending 1 tomorrow and its a fair distance so you’d think this is ready. The selection has already won at the course but is being upped in trip tomorrow. This shouldn’t be a problem looking at it’s sire’s record at the distance. The fav does also look strong but at 6/1 i think this is the value selection.

  4. Chupalla looks a solid bet in the 19:15 at Kempton. Absolutely bolted up on her only start at the track on debut (the 2nd who was 6l behind went on to be a 94 rated horse). She is also 2/3 going right handed with the only loss in a class 2 race worth 32k. The form of her win 2 starts ago has been well franked with the 2nd,3rd,4th,5th and 7th having all won since and she is only 3lbs higher. LTO she ran OK over an inadequate 6f. The step back up to 7f will suit. Has a plum draw in stall 1. Gets a first time visor to sharpen her up here and I thought was over priced at 12/1. I also want a bet on Danmead in the 20:15. Won over course, distance and class 2 starts ago before running a big race in a class 2 at Goodwood before fading in the last furlong (that was over 2m4f and soft ground). The step back in trip and class will help as will a return to Kempton (was 2nd on his only other start here). Robert Winston get on extremely well on him so its a plus he returns to the saddle (3/7, 6p) and I think there is more to come.

  5. Owen Na View (5.30 Worcester) has become a bit of a cliff horse for me,his last run is not quite as bad as the 32l walloping he took,the combination of the extra 4 furlongs on rain softened ground at the course probably did for him,he was going well and jumping well for a good way under today’s jockey.Paddy is taking a ride for Sophie Leech in the same race which is a bit off putting,more so that Cawley is an uninspiring 1-41 at the course,so you would need to be getting a decent price all things considered,the 20/1 does however tempt me in for one last chance,he will win one eventually,if he hasn’t fallen out of love with the game

  6. York day 1.
    1-55. Watchable 25-1 is difficult to catch right but perfectly capable at this level and worth an ew risk even though stable jockey Tudhope prefers Edward Lewis 7-1 and has a good chance. Soie D’leau has been running well and has every chance of making the frame @ 16-1.
    2-25. Channon’s Jazeel 40-1 has done nothing wrong on his 2
    starts so far and is open to improvement and i can’t resist a punt at that price, Atzeni on board can only help.
    3-00. Cracksman looks the class in this but at odds on i’m leaving it alone, will probably have a nibble ew on Khalidi 16-1 for a bit of fun.
    3-35. top 4 in the market should dominate and i’ll take a chance with Cliffs Of Moher 11-2, hampered badly lto and could still be going the right way.
    4-15. Theydon Grey 7-1 just keeps getting better and this looks his optimum trip, only heavy rain would put me off and the same goes for Yorkidding 16-1 which has a good ew chance.
    4-50. Green Fortune 7-1has a big chance, has won 2 of his 3 starts to date, trainer/jockey combo do well.. Etifaaq 12-1 is dropping back in class and might be worth a small ew bet.

      1. a quick note on staking, i have a 300pt bank for York festival .
        1-55 Watchable 1pt ew, Edward Lewis 1.5pt ew . Soie D’leau 1pt ew.
        2-25 Jazeel 2pt ew.
        3-00 Khalidi 1/2 pt ew.
        3-35. Cliffs Of Moher 2 pt win.
        4-15. Theydon Grey 4pt win, Yorkidding 1pt ew.
        4-50. Green Fortune 4pt win, Etifaaq 1 pt ew.
        total staked 26 pts. i’ll do a running total over the 4 days and see how i do, i do have some bigger bets later in the week so judge me at the end.
        p.s. all bets from my “fun” bank completely separate from qualifiers.

        1. Plenty of bets Martin, good luck.

          I like Dee Ex Bee 2.25; Venice Beach each way if 8 runners in the 3.00, if not Cracksman win. 4.15 Seamour each way and 4.50 Luis Fernandes.

  7. Qualifiers for 23/8 inc 6 ES

    FLAT

    Bath

    1.45 – Silverrica (3yo+) ES
    Showthewayavrilo (3yo+) ES

    2.50 – Eugenic (all Hc’s, micro dist) ES

    3.25 – Chilli Jam (4yo+)

    5.10 – Wassail (4yo+)

    5.40 _ Nutini (3yo+) ES

    Carl

    1.35 – (2YO) Higher Rank

    4.25 – Savannah Moon (3yo+, micro season runs)

    York

    1.55 – A Momentofmadness (3yo+)

    4.15 – Theydon Grey (micro age)

    JUMPS

    Worc (summer)

    5.00 – Skint (HcCh)

    5.30 – Ink Master (all Hc’s, micro TJC) ES

    Poker School ( season runs)

    6.00 – Beau du Brizais (all Hc’s) ES

    8.00 – Chantecler (all Hc’s)

    Mister Dick (micro class)

    MICRO SYSTEMS/TESTS

    T/Jc

    W 8.00 – Aristocracy <12

    Mike

    1. Just a word of caution for younger viewers.

      DO NOT GET PISSED ON WOODS RUM!!

      what started as a gentle lunch time beer resulted in falling out of taxi at tea-time, sleeeping halfway in the front door and using the house phone to locate my mobile at 4 in the morning.

      1. A couple of micro’s to add

        60 day trainers

        Y 3.35 – Shutter Speed (any odds)

        C.Appleby

        Y 4.15 – Pengali Pavilion (any odds)

      2. Don’t mention Woods Titus…i got pissed on it and Windjammer…years ago in Devon…..Next day balked all the way home to the Pool.. with a big red and purple nose…The kids laughed all the way home and the matelots too. Happy days.
        Just back from hols….what a waste couldn’t get the laptop to accept signals

  8. 7.45 kempton for me ahian bil zain for david simcock looks most intresting. Declared in 4 races this week includind class 2 handicap at york and the group 3 wimter hill stakes on saturday, simcock plumps for class 3 handicap at kempton.Last run was an improved effort from a lightly raced sort and sean levey has a good record for the trainer, at around 7/1should go well paul

    1. carlisle 4. 55 wor lass
      backed it at 7s lastnight. form has been franked by dubawi fifty winning a class 3 . tor also winning a class 2. both winning next races. wor lass runs same class. drops a furlong in distance and jockey 1 from 1 on him. e/w .

  9. My York hit list, nothing too strong today, racing looks very competitive just small stakes for interest:

    1.55 Move In Time
    2.25 Wells Farhh Go
    3.00 Venice Beach
    3.35 Ulysses
    4.15 Theydon Grey / Suegioo e/w
    4.50 Zap

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