Free Daily Post: 19/08/17 (complete)

micros + 2x guest previews

MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

Trainer/Jockey Combo (live test)

7.30 MR- Mighty Leader (12/1< guide)

Flat 2017: 60+ days

5.40 Newm- Saaheq

5.05 Curr – Realt Rua (any, 25/1< best)

**

A couple of guest previews from Speculate 2 Accumulate today…

 

Ripon 3.15 Great St Wilfred Sprint Handicap

4 Eastern Impact – @ 20/1 (Coral + PP)

3 Out Do @ 14/1

7 Pipers Note @ 10/1

9 Al Qahwa @ 16/1

 

(William Hill + Skybet – odds to 6th / Lads/Coral/PP – odds to 5th)

 

 Ripon 2.45 Great St Wilfred Silver Trophy Consolation Race

2 Teruntum Star @ 9/1

9 Rasheeq @ 16/1

7 King Robert @ 18/1

8 Red Pike @ 16/1

(Lads/Coral/Skybet – odds to 5th)

(Have 1/2 point each way each horse)

 

——————-

The Great St Wilfred is a heritage handicap and always eagerly looked forwards to slotting in just before York Ebor meeting.

The Consolation race, was added around 5 years ago, and can provide an interesting, though not conclusive draw indication.

Ripon has a quirky Sprint track, slightly downhill and full of undulations that have developed over the centuries, tracks like Yarmouth and Doncaster have spent fortunes relaying these undulating tracks, but it is something Ripon you feel will never do, until or unless they present a danger to horses, and the track and these races are all the better for it.

The ability to handle the undulations is important, so we do look at Course form. The draw here usually favours the extremes; those drawn very high or very low who can grab a rail, the slight 10 year trend indicates low tends to win but high can pack the places, so no distinct bias, middle drawn horses have to make an early decision as to which group to join, and indications are that few if any runners come straight down the middle.

We will attack BOTH races and use the same logic for both.

 

3.15 GREAT ST WILFRED

I don’t see the weather being a huge factor today, The Going is Good, a few showers but it will be good enough for those who are Good/ Good to Firm types and should be enough cut in the ground for those that like to get a toe in, only confirmed hoof rattlers or mud-larks should be at a disadvantage.

I looked at CD form and initially 7 stood out; Out Do; Pipers Note; Nameitwhatyoulike; Flying Pursuit; Classic Seniority; Right Touch and Snap Shots have all won over Course and Distance. Of those I feel Nameitwhatyoulike and Flying Pursuit will be huge dangers but the former is slightly out of form and the latter, who was a fantastic all the way winner for our Daily Tipping Service, last time out, may just be in no mans land in stall 13 and may just have had the run of the race at York on ideal softer Going as the rains came that day. Classic Seniority; Right Touch and Snap Shots don’t look to have handicap marks that jump off the page, Right Touch may run on late, Snap Shots refused to race last time.

The others that really caught my eye are -: Growl (dr 18); Al Qahwa (dr 20); Muntadab (dr 14); Eastern Impact (dr8); Growl looks a very solid favourite but at the price I can’t see the value and I think there is better value drawn high.

Muntadab is a nice horse and has won here this year but just looks like a spring horse who has gone off the boil.

The real dark horse here could be Mattmu, thrown in on old form, but showed nothing on recent comeback.

My final 4 therefore are-:

4 Eastern Impact – last win off 112, runs off 102, getting well handicapped and deserves a win 

3 Out Do – did us a huge favour at Royal Ascot at 25/1, unfancied by everyone else, still well handicapped

7 Pipers Note – Course specialist, primed for this and with any luck in running handicapped to go close

9 Al Qhawa – gives O’Meara a strong hand drawn high the showers will help.

 

——–

 

2.40 Consolation Silver Handicap

Very similar logic was applied in terms of Course form and Draw and this time fewer Course and Distance winners.

Bossipop ticks many boxes for an in form yard; Magical Effect is up 7lbs and progressive and they are the only CD winners.

The likes of Jack Dexter are still good enough to win this and he rates a real danger, of those drawn lowish the others I looked closely at were Harwoods Volante and Bossipop but they narrowly failed to make the cut with Jack Dexter.

 

The high drawn ones I considered very closely were Art Obsession and Magical Effect, but again just failed to make the cut.

My final 4 here are as follows-:

2 Teruntum Star – drawn 20; won off 95, runs off 91 and the rail could be a huge asset in stall 20

9 Rasheeq – drawn in stall 1; nice mark, Course debut, but if handling track is weighted very well

7 King Robert – won off 89 on AW and 90 on turf, runs off 88 and looks a real dark horse drawn 3

8 Red Pike – admirably consistent, getting help at last from handicapper competitive off mid 90 marks; 87 here!

 

Those are my selections for both races and suggestion is to use Bookies paying odds to 5th on both races (or 6 in GSW)

We will stake 1/2 point each way and not the full point as we are attacking BOTH races.

(If a huge draw bias emerges in the 2.40 the best back up horses in the 3.15 drawn high are MUNTADAB and low RIGHT TOUCH).

**

 

Good luck with any bets

Josh

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

7 Responses

  1. Mighty leader looks a solid e/w bet in the 19:30 at Market Rasen. Paddy’s only ride of the day. He looks a very consistent class 4 animal (23161 in his last 5 class 4 handicap hurdles and the 6 was off a longer than ideal break). They replace the hood with cheekpieces here. (the last time there was a head gear change he won). Trainer does well here and both him and jockey in good form. Just pray all 8 stand.

    Earlier in the day I also think Bacchus looks a solid bet in the 14:45 at Newmarket. Has ran consistently well over course and distance in his last 2 races and was only a nose behind Scorching Heat who went on to win the Steward’s Consolation race. Only 1lb up for that, he is one of the few here that are proven to like soft ground. He is drawn right next to Merlin who seems to be the main pace in the race and I expect another bold showing.

    Lastly I want a small bet on Bessie Warfield in the 14:30 at Doncaster. Form of her last race has worked out very well with the 3rd, 4th, 6th, 7th and 8th winning since and 2nd and 5th placing with the winner only losing by 2.5 lengths in a grade 3. Looked very green LTO but the penny seemed to be dropping late on. Cumani has an incredible 7/18, 14p record with 2yr olds having their 2nd run in maiden filly only races in the past 4 years. He won this race last year when it was also open to stallions. He is 1/13, 10p with his 2 yr olds at the track in the past 5 years. I like the jockey booking given he is a solid 3/9, 4p with 2 yr olds at the track (improving to 3/6, 4p in class 5s). Obviously you can never really tell in a race like this but the form of the rest here doesn’t appear to have amounted to much so 12/1 last night looked too big and the 9/1 still looks solid. Given only the 7 turn up I have gone win only although given those stats I wouldn’t put anyone off having an e/w bet.

  2. Taking you on Nick with Kayla. Will add one thing if worried bout a N/R play the ew part on BF or similar as even with horses pulled out they will pay 3 places. Anyway the form to put mine on the mix was the 2nd at Towcester the trainers local track. ( My local track ) He took over from Renne Robeson and she would find winners here at Market Rasen. Jockey who claims keeps us competetive plus he has a gd place strike rate when teaming up with Stuart Edmunds. Currently 7.4 and ill be on w/p

    1. Thanks James. Topped it off by using my £30 risk free bet with 365 on Squats in the race after. (just wish I used the same reasoning on Mattmu in the next)

        1. Never really seemed in doubt that. Asked him for an effort to close, gave him a breather and asked again to go win the race.

  3. Nice 1-2 in the 2.45 at Ripon from the Guest Previews from speculate to accumulate; well done josh; had a single and reverse forecast and the explanations are very good too and helpful to understand how tips are arrived at.

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