Trainer/Jockey Combo (live test)
7.30 MR- Mighty Leader (12/1< guide)
Flat 2017: 60+ days
5.40 Newm- Saaheq
5.05 Curr – Realt Rua (any, 25/1< best)
A couple of guest previews from Speculate 2 Accumulate today…
Ripon 3.15 Great St Wilfred Sprint Handicap
4 Eastern Impact – @ 20/1 (Coral + PP)
3 Out Do @ 14/1
7 Pipers Note @ 10/1
9 Al Qahwa @ 16/1
(William Hill + Skybet – odds to 6th / Lads/Coral/PP – odds to 5th)
Ripon 2.45 Great St Wilfred Silver Trophy Consolation Race
2 Teruntum Star @ 9/1
9 Rasheeq @ 16/1
7 King Robert @ 18/1
8 Red Pike @ 16/1
(Lads/Coral/Skybet – odds to 5th)
(Have 1/2 point each way each horse)
The Great St Wilfred is a heritage handicap and always eagerly looked forwards to slotting in just before York Ebor meeting.
The Consolation race, was added around 5 years ago, and can provide an interesting, though not conclusive draw indication.
Ripon has a quirky Sprint track, slightly downhill and full of undulations that have developed over the centuries, tracks like Yarmouth and Doncaster have spent fortunes relaying these undulating tracks, but it is something Ripon you feel will never do, until or unless they present a danger to horses, and the track and these races are all the better for it.
The ability to handle the undulations is important, so we do look at Course form. The draw here usually favours the extremes; those drawn very high or very low who can grab a rail, the slight 10 year trend indicates low tends to win but high can pack the places, so no distinct bias, middle drawn horses have to make an early decision as to which group to join, and indications are that few if any runners come straight down the middle.
We will attack BOTH races and use the same logic for both.
3.15 GREAT ST WILFRED
I don’t see the weather being a huge factor today, The Going is Good, a few showers but it will be good enough for those who are Good/ Good to Firm types and should be enough cut in the ground for those that like to get a toe in, only confirmed hoof rattlers or mud-larks should be at a disadvantage.
I looked at CD form and initially 7 stood out; Out Do; Pipers Note; Nameitwhatyoulike; Flying Pursuit; Classic Seniority; Right Touch and Snap Shots have all won over Course and Distance. Of those I feel Nameitwhatyoulike and Flying Pursuit will be huge dangers but the former is slightly out of form and the latter, who was a fantastic all the way winner for our Daily Tipping Service, last time out, may just be in no mans land in stall 13 and may just have had the run of the race at York on ideal softer Going as the rains came that day. Classic Seniority; Right Touch and Snap Shots don’t look to have handicap marks that jump off the page, Right Touch may run on late, Snap Shots refused to race last time.
The others that really caught my eye are -: Growl (dr 18); Al Qahwa (dr 20); Muntadab (dr 14); Eastern Impact (dr8); Growl looks a very solid favourite but at the price I can’t see the value and I think there is better value drawn high.
Muntadab is a nice horse and has won here this year but just looks like a spring horse who has gone off the boil.
The real dark horse here could be Mattmu, thrown in on old form, but showed nothing on recent comeback.
My final 4 therefore are-:
4 Eastern Impact – last win off 112, runs off 102, getting well handicapped and deserves a win
3 Out Do – did us a huge favour at Royal Ascot at 25/1, unfancied by everyone else, still well handicapped
7 Pipers Note – Course specialist, primed for this and with any luck in running handicapped to go close
9 Al Qhawa – gives O’Meara a strong hand drawn high the showers will help.
2.40 Consolation Silver Handicap
Very similar logic was applied in terms of Course form and Draw and this time fewer Course and Distance winners.
Bossipop ticks many boxes for an in form yard; Magical Effect is up 7lbs and progressive and they are the only CD winners.
The likes of Jack Dexter are still good enough to win this and he rates a real danger, of those drawn lowish the others I looked closely at were Harwoods Volante and Bossipop but they narrowly failed to make the cut with Jack Dexter.
The high drawn ones I considered very closely were Art Obsession and Magical Effect, but again just failed to make the cut.
My final 4 here are as follows-:
2 Teruntum Star – drawn 20; won off 95, runs off 91 and the rail could be a huge asset in stall 20
9 Rasheeq – drawn in stall 1; nice mark, Course debut, but if handling track is weighted very well
7 King Robert – won off 89 on AW and 90 on turf, runs off 88 and looks a real dark horse drawn 3
8 Red Pike – admirably consistent, getting help at last from handicapper competitive off mid 90 marks; 87 here!
Those are my selections for both races and suggestion is to use Bookies paying odds to 5th on both races (or 6 in GSW)
We will stake 1/2 point each way and not the full point as we are attacking BOTH races.
(If a huge draw bias emerges in the 2.40 the best back up horses in the 3.15 drawn high are MUNTADAB and low RIGHT TOUCH).
Good luck with any bets