Members Daily Post: 15/08/17 (complete)

Section 1 + notes + results wrap up

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT

Thirsk

2.00 – Vera Drake (2YO) 9/2 UP

5.30 – Mustaqbal (micro going IF SOFT) G3 14/1

 

Ffos Las

2.15 – Kingstreet Lady (all hncps) 8/1 UP

5.15 – Aqshion Stations (all hncps) 33/1 UP

 

Notts

4.55 – Stoneboat Bill (all hncps) H1 I3 4/1 UP

6.25 – Master Archer (all hncps) H3 3/1  2nd 

7.25 –

Sitar (all hncps) H1 11/8  UP

Ambitious Icarus (micro dist)  ES H3 I1 G3 10/1 3rd 17/2

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers from the report HERE

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to 13/08/17) 

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to 13/08/17) 

Test Zone:  | CD Jockeys: Read HERE>>>| Irish Angles: Read HERE>>> C Appleby/York Ebor: Read HERE>>>

Welcome Email/Note: READ HERE>>>

Main Stats Guides (used for section 1 quals) : Summer Stats: Read HERE>>> | Jumps (all non summer only tracks): Read HERE>>

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

Looks like another fairly quiet day for me, and not much else to add…

Aqshion Stations is lightly raced but you would like to see more.. that last run was the first for the yard and first since Jan. Drops in trip on ground which is an unknown. But, there really wasn’t much life LTO/or in his career to date and while a weak race bumps into 5 rivals who are at least in form/been running ok. Low speed fig, bottom of HRB ratings…and a big price. The trainers flat handicappers in the 22/1-40/1 SP range are 7/195,26p, 4%… they are hard to find. 50/1+ are 0/50,2p. I’d want to see some market life I think, and a bit more on the track personally. And if he somehow wins I could probably just about live with it.

Ambitious Icarus..well I won’t second guess an ES + treble rated and have something on him… he does usually need a pace burn up to be seen at his best- can be slow away/take time to get going/finishes late – and i’m concerned in this small field that he may not get it- but I could be wrong. The other qual in the race looks most progressive also, but too short for me. He could well hack up. But hopefully AI can keep tabs on them and swoop late. More hopeful than expectant but definitely one where i’ll trust the stats. He’s the only one i have money on from the list above. The rest seem too short to my eyes, and if Kingstreet Lady wins, i’ll sleep just fine. Far too many questions for my own interpretation of the race/her profile.

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I will add some general thoughts on results spreadsheets from other day, and will re post below…

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

None.

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Results: advised strategies links updated in Key.

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Blessed To Empress..

‘My’ horse, well the one I own 2.5% of, runs in the 5.25 Nottingham… you can read what the syndicate team sent members HERE>>> 

They have previewed the race etc. This hasn’t been a grand plot and in truth we have no idea what to expect. She won for us on debut which was a thrill and there have been various valid excuses for her last two runs. I dream of her bouncing out, making all, relishing 6f and looking like a horse with 12lb in hand! 🙂 You have to dream, that’s what it’s all about. It’s a fact finding mission. If I didn’t own a share I wouldn’t be backing her..but at 20s I’ve had an EW nibble. I just hope she runs well and gives us something to build on.

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FLAT RESULTS UPDATE:

Flat updated to end July.

Analysis

General

The all qualifiers spreadsheet above list all qualifiers in section 1 of the members’ daily posts. These are the starting points. Unlike the jumps stats, the flat version does not find as many ‘biggies’. Backing all qualifiers is never advised but for the Jumps it has been a profitable approach to date. That has not been the case with the flat. My main focus is that the overall stats, especially winners/win% and place% is decent. The advised strategies help add a level of sophistication to these trainer stats picks, as well as any of your own subjective judgement.

The overall stats since the start of the flat season, to end of July, for all qualifiers…

978 bets / 130 wins / 316 wins|places / 13% win / 32% win|place / -56 early / -240 ISP / -133.5 BFSP

I am happy with the number of winners and percentages, especially as there are no odds caps. As always the challenge is to find as many of the winners as possible, while trying to avoid as many losers as possible. Knowing 32% of all qualifiers win or place is a decent starting point. There isn’t much more to say on that. If those % keep repeating that will be fine.

I suppose there is a ‘value’ point to be made… in general the stats highlight overpriced horses, as evidenced by the early / BFSP figures, against Industry Starting Price. Beating ISP is always important.

 

2 Year Olds

These stats are the only non-handicap stats in the pack, and look at trainers’ records with first time out 2 year olds.

At end of July these were…

47 bets / 6 wins / +7.5 (early|bog)

 

Bonus (3 YO Only Handicap(

(2 of 3 trainers are Elite Squad, G Moore- not ES- yet to have a qualifier at Goodwood)

22 bets /  5 wins / 9 wins|places / +8.5 (early/bog) / +8 (BFSP)

Any questions, then fire away.

Josh

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

10 Responses

  1. we have 2 running tomorrow from hugh fowlers 2 year old posts.
    POLAR LIGHT 5:25 Nottingham
    COSMOPOLITAN QUEEN 5:55 Nottingham

  2. Josh, Blessed to Impress is running tomorrow on Hcp debut at Notts in the 5.25 – Any word from the trainer/other owners on how its expected to run? Doesn’t look they trainer specifically targets Hcp debuts 0/4, 2 places.

    1. Hi James, yep she is.. i’ll get something up soon… in short we don’t really know what to expect.. it isn’t a plot! She is ready to run, and bit of a fact finding mission.. we shall be having ‘just in case’ bets at those odds.. 6f is new territory and who knows some of the marks the oppo may be hiding…. I would treat most of her stats with general caution because it is a small yard, esp handicap debut type stats.. but it hasn’t been a ‘plan’ – we shall find out a) if she stays/sees it out b) if her mark is workable. She has her own ideas on the game..works well.. we think she likes to lead- it is the only time she has settled so far. But depends if her comfortable race pace is good enough to hold position at the front etc. Don’t put the mortgage on! 🙂

      1. I’ve just had a little ew nibble at 22s with skybet and just thought I’d log on here to see if you’d posted any thing up about her. 🙂

  3. I really like the look of Contribute in the 17:25 at Nottingham (actually tipped up by my main tipster hence the slight price drop but that’s not why I like him). The form of his last 2 races have worked out very well. From his start two runs ago the winner destroyed a class 5 field, the 2nd was runner up in a class 4 and the 3rd also won a class 4. Last time out he ran well in a class 2 and the 2nd and 4th have both won class 3s since. It looks like he didn’t quite stay the 7f so a drop back to 6f is a plus. He drops back into a class 5 here off a 2lb lower mark. Meade doesn’t send many here and is 2/5 in handicaps at the track in the past 2 years. He doesn’t have many nursery runners but they generally do well (4/19, 8p +10). What was eye-catching was that Fergus Sweeney has been on board for all of his nursery winners (4/10, 6p +19.75). He has been gelded since his last run and by breeding he shouldn’t have any issues with the ground. Slight concern that the blinkers come off and the trainer could be in better form but apart from that looks to have a big chance.

    1. Strange timing I was just looking at Contribute myself. The concern for me is that Meade’s 2 year olds at Nottingham are 0/7, 1 place. Think thats enough to put me off going too big, but like you say there are a few things in its favour so maybe at a price it could be worth a play and like you say the early market seems to like it.

  4. Hey Josh,

    Hope your already for Ibiza:-) I’m just in a premier inn (well the beef eater next door) 5 mins from the airport. The holiday as started for me 🙂

    1. Hey Gavin,
      Not quite started yet for me! Fly tomorrow evening, late. Arrive at 12.45 am I think, and straight out we go no doubt 🙂 Hotel not far from airport the other end, looking forward to it. We’ll have to meet up for a beer if you are close.
      Josh

  5. We’re flying at 6 in the morning. I’m just staying outside San Antonio so other side of the island, but that why taxi were invented lol 😉 so I’ll definitely meet up with you for beer or three. I need to buy you beer with all the cash I’ve made from your hard work 😀

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