Free Daily Post: 28/07/17 (complete)

micros for now, + ‘elite quad’ quals + Saturday plans…

MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

Tom George Chasers (any odds)

3.05 Uttox – Cuirassier Dempire

 

Flat 2017: 60+ Days (test)

1.50 Thirsk- Salty Sugar (any odds)

3.20 Ascot – Nathra (any odds)

 

R Fahey Nursery (test) (any odds)

2.55 Thirsk – Mabo / Reinbeau Prince

 

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Jay Kay is still running I think-poor.  No idea why they didn’t make all on him. He has a good record at Ayr and in August so I will keep an eye on him. He’ll go close to making all at some point again, soon hopefully! 

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Today’s Elite Squad qualifiers…

Below are the two flat ES quals from my Members’ Club.. as of Sunday evening these were 19/81,38 places (inc wins) +47 (early/bog) , +37 (BFSP), in just over 4 weeks. So, they have been going well. You can make some sort of case for both of these but they are a price, and anything could happen…  (the Elite Squad were the best of the micro angles from my main stats reports, that his certain criteria on # of bets, win%, place %, BFSP profit) 

 

7.40- Newmarket

Oh It’s Saucepot (all hncps+ micro TJC)  ES G3  8/1

8.20 – Chepstow

Aylas Emperor (all hncps+ micro going) ES H3 20/1

 

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That will be all for today… I need to get cracking with Saturday’s racing… GL with any bets.

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Saturday Plans.... I’m off on a last minute trip to York on Saturday. A friend is on leave from the Navy, let out of his submarine, and has bagged some tickets for the County Stand (shirt/tie/jacket a must, apparently). So, I will have a focus on that card. Do say hello if you are there/see me. There is the SkyBet Dash which I will look at on the Free post no doubt, and the International Stakes from Ascot which is a decent handicap. Finding another Classic Seniority would be welcome. I may try and record a video if I can get the tech working, it’s been a while. 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

21 Responses

  1. Another couple for….ALL Gosden runners in July/Aug/Sept having had their last run more than 45 days ago.

    1.50 Thirsk,Salty Sugar, 10/1
    3.20 Ascot, Nathra, 5/2.

    Few more runners today for the Haggas system I mentioned a couple of weeks ago.

    3.20 Ascot, On Her Toes, 10/1
    7.30 York, Entsar, 10/1.
    8.10 Newmarket, The Grand Visir, 7/2.

    And finally a couple for the Hannon and one for the Appleby systems too:

    6.50 Chepstow, Ashwaq,6/1.
    8.40 Newmarket, Ower Fly,8/1.

    1.40 Ascot,Expressiy, 10/3.

    1. Hi Chris, how are these systems running, as I am not monitoring them? Perhaps report back at the end of the month?

      I will share how a few of the micros I have posted at the end of this month. I will be posting more about such from next week as I go pro again and so will have more time.

      1. Hi Martin
        I’m away on holiday at the moment so will feedback around the first weekend in August.

  2. a horse mentioned in hugh fowlers 2yo article runs this evening
    7.10 Newmarket – another day in the sun.

    1. Cheers Warren, the more eyes the better in these parts, in terms of tracking/highlighting x,y,z, much appreciated. GL Josh

    2. Well Warren, he is off 72 today and I rated him 82 after his run in the Masar/Invincible Army/Folk Tale/Tathmeen race. Comments below

      Another Day Of Sun – Cheap one bought for only 25k. Lower to mid medium, too free early, baulked late on and allowed to coast home. Instructive to look at his picture next to Masar as they are on almost the identical stride and similar shapes although ADOS is ¾ to 1 size smaller. ADOS’s coat is still to come through fully and he does not have quite the sheen of Masar. His muscle tone is also a little less defined. Possibly his neck is a little long for his frame in comparison and he does not give quite the impression of rib cage volume and power that Masar does. That said he does not look completely out of place and is a likeable type who will win races. My guess would be 82.

      I now think this is a bit on the high side, also his last two runs on g/s have looked below par, that said there is nothing for him to be afraid of here and he has Sylvestre and a first time visor which may have been the issue rather than the ground.

      Can’t decide!

  3. I forgot to post my analysis before going to Sandown yesterday, if I had I would have mentioned that one of the horses to follow Tathmeen ran at Newbury on Wednesday night. He won at odds on in a small field not looking to have much depth from a horse I had rated 74. This might have been just what he needed and he may be worth following for a further outing.

    : 28th July Ascot 7f fillies Nov
    4.25 Lady Momoka, Mahaarat
    3.75 Expressly, Give And Take, Indicia, Jousi, Lady Godiva, Stream Song
    3.5
    3.25 Ritha
    3
    2.75
    2.5
    2.25 Lady Of Petra
    1.5 Free Talkin
    Preview – I really liked Indicia on debut and backed her at 25/1 when she finished 2nd to a good Godolphin filly at Newmarket. The third from that race although I did not like her much has since run well. It should take a group level performance to turn over Indicia today but with Expressly costing 260k and Lady Momoka 470k it is likely that their trainers expect something like that.

    Prior race notes
    Indicia – This one I did spot. Noted as Classy. More problems with too many people around to get a good picture. Looks fit enough perhaps a bit smaller than the winner. 80
    Ritha – Looked better than this. 60 but may be a future lurker.

    : 28th July Ascot 6f Mdn
    4.25 Mythical Magic, No I’m Easy, Strategist
    3.75 Lord Vetinari, Merlin Magic
    3.5
    3.25
    3
    2.75 G Eye Joe, Global Art
    2.5
    2.25
    2
    Preview – Impossible without paddock review. Mythical Magic seems to be supported on the back of having a Gimcrack entry.
    Hugh

  4. Bishop of Bling who I have a small share runs today in the 20:50 at Chepstow and we have been waiting for the rain all summer since temporarily moving him to Chris Wall’s yard so he finally gets his preferred conditions. He has an e/w chance although he has the worst draw of all although given 1/3 of the field has now come out that’s less relevant. I personally really like Goldslinger in that race given I can see him getting an easy lead, he won this race 2 years ago, likes soft ground, is 2/3 in class 6s and is on a very nice mark plus jockey has been running well for the trainer recently so a 1/2 in either order will do nicely.

  5. re: above, good luck guys..Nick, I like Goldslinger too but with the volume of non-runners we are now looking at a single figure price. Dean Ivory had a winner the other day.

    One who caught my eye was at Thirsk and is Ian Jardine’s Pechers de Perles in the 435. Jardine has an excellent record with horses on their 1st run for him from another yard (winner Monday in Kalahari Sunset) and I suspect this lad if ridden prominently could get an easy lead. 13-2 currently.

    I also thought Pommes de Terre in the 630 at York had a chance. 1 run 1 win over CD at York off a pound lower and will get a nice tow from Bogart I think.

    For a nap, its 11-10 but I cannot see Rumshak getting beat in the opener at Thirsk. Ground no problem, Im hoping Mulrennan will bag the rail and he gets an easy lead.

    1. I didnt get a chance to do write ups (and dont like posting here without them) but yeah I also like Pomme de Terre. In the 16:35 at Thirsk I am taking you on with Right Action although have gone e/w and really like Liberatum in the race after with Seamus Cronin (who can really do no wrong at the moment) taking the ride amongst other things. Finally I am on Hugo Palmer’s Afandem in the 16:25 at Ascot who looked a massive price last night and the market seems to agree with me.

      1. I’m not religious but I think I must have seriously pissed off tue guy above. Reared at the start losing several lengths and was dead last before finishing off a fast 3rd, couldn’t quite time the run to finish a head and a neck 3rd, winning by 2 lengths over 5f before getting done in the final furlong and leading by 10lengths turning in and getting done in the last furlong. I think I deserved at least one there!

  6. just one that caught my eye today in the 2-30 uttox. Campula 25-1 skybet better on exchanges,running in first handicap didn’t seem to last home lto over 19f dropping back to 16f, handicapper hasn’t been generous but jockey has 5lb claim. top 2 in the market look very short priced and this could be the best of the rest. had a £2 ew nibble @38’s. (BF)

  7. sorry 92 days since last run the micro I looked at was as follows Horse Runs 90 Days: 0
     Dan Skelton: 6 bets / 3 wins / 5 places / 50% sr / +2 SP / +2 BFSP / AE 1.9 jumps guide uttoxeter

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