Members Daily Post: 23/07/17 (upd1)

quals+ratings pointers

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Redcar

4.30 – Highly Sprung (all hncps, 3yo+) ES I1 13/2

5.00 –

Alexandrakollontai (3yo+)  I1 G3 20/1

Pantera Negra (micro class) 14 8/1

Vaulted (micro dist) H3 I1  7/1

 

SUMMER JUMPS

Stratford

3.40 – Miss Mobot (all hncps) ES H3 9/2

 

Newton Abbot

4.20 – Beuvron (micro age) 12/1

4.50 –

Treasure Ridge (micro age) 14/1

Scorpion Star (micro age) 14/1

Panis Angelicus (micro TJC) 14/1

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers from the report HERE

‘Advised Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>

Test Zone: July Trainer: Read HERE>>> | CD Jockeys: Read HERE>>>| Irish Angles: Read HERE>>>

Welcome Email/Note: READ HERE>>>

**

 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

Nothing today.

Numerous placed horses and one short priced winner made for one of the more mediocre/poor days. Ironically the most fun was had at Haydock where Tim asked if I would have a flick through the card. I’m pleased I did as somehow the pin found the first three winners, including a 25/1 shot, so that was fun. I hope he, and maybe a few others, had a fun EW nibble.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Irish Angles

4.35 Tip – Tisamystery (any odds)

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Given some more Summer Jumpers today do note… the below from the other day, which touches on the only advised strategy for those runners at the moment, 10/1-25/1 approach. I’ll update the Elite Squad Jumps stats also asap.

RESULTS: 

-I have updated the Flat advised strategies link above, correct as of close of play Sunday 16th July. This will be updated weekly but of course you’re free to keep tabs on what you back etc.

-Jumps + Summer Jumps…

SPREADSHEETS

-‘Winter’ Jumps 2017-16th July: Link HERE>>>

-Summer Jumps 2017-16th July: Link HERE>>>

  • As discussed yesterday the #1 strategy revolved around the Geegeez Speed ratings which return later in the year. The other strategy was just based on the odds of runners as noted by me next to the horse on the morning of racing. I usually look around 8am or so and note the price generally available with at least 2 major bookies. This strategy simply looked at backing every horses that was in the 10/1 -25/1 price range as noted next to the horse. The SP is irrelevant. It became apparent as the season progressed that the jumps stats find many decent priced winners and the profit fell in this band. The results…
    • Jan-April 2017: 322 bets / 32 wins / 10% win SR / /+170 early|bog / +150 BFSP / 47% ROI
    • May-close 16th July, both main jumps pack + Summer Jumps: 122 bets/ 11 wins / +35 early|bog / +18 BFSP (after 5% commission) 
    • So, that makes a grand total for that approach: 444 bets / 43 wins / 10% sr / +205 early|Bog / +168 BFSP / 46% ROI (early/bog) 
    • There have been 4 losing runs of 25 or more, the worst around 40. The summer jumps hit one of 38 or so. But, those stats are solid given the numbers and those losing runs are what you would expect given the odd and win strike rate. So, that is a systematic approach for all jumps picks – definitely one to start off small and build up over time. Or you may just find that info useful when sifting through the qualifiers. 10-25/1 is generally the place to focus it seems. 

**

That will be it for today. GL with any bets.

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

3 Responses

  1. Nice win for Stamford Raffles at Haydock to round off a good day for me. Magical Memory at 3/1 was a nice price because of worries about the ground, which it went through ok.

    I usually dont bet Sundays but spotted a dirty each way angle with Bistouri Dhonore at 5/1, 4.50 NA. Only Theo to beat as far as I can see. bet to nothing?

    My last work assignment starts Monday and then back to pro punting August 1st. Grateful for the comments of Josh, Nick, Chris, Hugh and others on this site to help me keep food and beer on the table.

  2. Fantastic effort yesterday Josh, a few of us had a nibble on Teepee Time which more than paid for our night! Keep up the great work!

  3. hi josh

    these FLAT ELITE SQUAD are really impressing me, 1 bet today that won @ 11/2, glad starting backing them all

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