Ah well the stats worked well yesterday, the 11/1 winner from a shortlist of 4. Shame I ignored them but that’s how it goes. I (wrongly as it turned out) had a few niggles about the Nicholl’s horse that I couldn’t quite overcome. I may have over-thought any concerns about the level of his recent small field form given all the other positives he had going for him. Never mind. (stronger language was used at the time!) Shelford ran well but was just a bit too far back. But also that is how he runs and may forever be a frustrating chaser and if playing again you would want a price. I’m sure he will pick up a decent enough chase at some point, he does respond for pressure and may have preferred a stronger pace. Still, it’s of some comfort that the race profiling has been working well the last couple of weeks and at least the pin has landed on one of the winners at good odds.
On we go. The micros today and another guest tip from Speculate 2 Accumulate… (sp2a)
Trainer/Jockey Combo – Live Test
3.40 Strat- Mighty Leader (12/1< guide)
Guest Tip (from sp2a)
The Advisor – Redcar 3.00 3 Lozah – each way @ 9/1 (generally – all bookies odds to 4th place)
We had a nice winner yesterday with Alcala who was always travelling beautifully and was ridden to perfection; he handled the step up in grade in this better race very well and could be one to follow on better summer ground until the Autumn. The loss of the Trainers Title will have hot Paul Nicholls hard, and it is not hard to believe that he will see some of the better summer jumping races, as a way of getting a head start in this seasons title race.
Jonny Barnes picked up some minor place money, having been advised at double figure odds; for a nice net profit overall.
The action today focuses on Redcar on the Flat and jumping at Stratford and Newton Abbot, both NH Cards have smallish fields that could reduce further as the Going at both is likely to get softer after heavy rain over the past few days. There is racing too at Fairyhouse and Tipperary but with moderate fare, we will focus on Redcar, we did look at the 5.00 race but have decided on just the one selection today in the 1m 1 f Class 6 race at 3.00, where we think we have found a horse with the potential to improve in a moderate field.
As usual we wont “tip for the sake of it” and with The Advisor in good form we are confident of a nice run.
The Advisor -: I am immediately drawn to the top of the handicap. Green Howard is solid and consistent in this grade for an in form yard and steps n to a 0-60 here. His best form is at 1 mile but he does have a tendency to step up in trip as the season goes on in past years, whether that is a plan, or just hunting a race to win, not sure. He will be sure to be one of the ones in contention as is
THE DUKKERER who would be my second pick in the race, for those that want to go “two handed”. He is down to Class6 runs off a nice mark at optimum trip and looks solid, the main problem being, he tens to find was of not winning, as opposed to winning.
Of the remainder, Graceful Act was a surprise winner last time but upped 6lbs does not look like one to build up a sequence and the likes of Mr Sundowner and Sooqan are on pretty rigid handicap marks that allows them to run well but normally to be looking at place money at best. The one that stands closest inspection though is LOZAH. He was noted running on well here over a mile last time in a slightly better race. Those that beat him and that he beat that day would normally be contesting Class5 races off marks above 60 and at 4 years old, for an in form yard, he would be one of the few that you would think may have some scope to improve. The other advantage I see is a draw in stall 14, as the higher numbers on this track in races round the bend, do seem to have a bit of an advantage and both main rivals are drawn low.
It is very moderate fare but at 9/1 and with all Bookies paying odds to 4th place at the time of writingat 7.15 he looks a solid each way punt and if you want to double up the NB would be The Dukkerer.
Back tomorrow with the usual 3 tip format with 4 meetings and plans at Ayr and Beverley.
Some explanation as to the above and sp2a’s Daily Tips…