Free Daily Post: SAT 08/07/17 (complete)

A special treat today…well, it may or may not turn out that way. Below is the full Members’ post. The ‘Elite Squad’ and the ‘test angles’ made +42.5 points yesterday, which was fun.

Do read through the below carefully, especially the key. The Members’ Club will be open again at some point with the 21 Day Free trial, with any luck in time for next week’s July meeting. The ‘big meeting notes’ have been another highlight of the flat season so far.

Members’ Club Intro… 

• The purpose of the Club is to provide well researched trainer based selections that have a habit of finding decent priced winners. Section 1 of the post below lists qualifiers against my main stats packs, in this example Trainer Track Profiles: Flat 2017. 
• Backing them all is not advised. They are starting points. 
• You can either take a systematic approach, starting with the 3 main strategies that are emerging. You can read those HERE>>>>   The Key/Codes next to the horses below will make more sense if you read that doc. The Members’ Club has been closed for a time mainly because up until recently I was struggling to find systematic approaches to the Flat quals. I don’t wish for you to have a crappy experience. 
• The other approach is to use your own subjective judgement with the qualifiers and pick out what you like most. You have to get used to missing winners- I don’t back them all. But if I am making steady profits over time and having fun, I don’t really care. I think most members’ like this element of independence and making their own punting decisions – from picking which ones to back, how to back them, how much to have on etc. That’s where this club is different to most others ‘services’ out there. It isn’t for everyone, I know that. But anyone who reads this blog for any amount of time,and that includes me reading other’s comments, usually ends up thinking about the game slightly differently – or takes plenty away to help improve their own punting. That’s what it is about. There are numerous punters on here in their 60s,70s+ who I believe now approach the game in a completely different way, and I think enjoy it more than ever. That’s the main thing. Fun, steady profits, cheering home the odd nice priced winner. If you lack for patience you’re probably not reading this message as you’ll have stopped reading the blog a long time ago! Nothing comes easily or quickly in this game. And I have not found the magic bullet. But, we are doing ok. 
• So, below is the daily content. It includes the system test zone also- mainly monthly trainer angles + my Jockey Course +Distance report. The former is 3/8,4p +24 points in July so far, the latter 3/8, + 10 or so I think. 
• A highlight of the flat has been my ‘Big Meeting Notes’ – an example from The Curragh is HERE>>>  Again the aim there is to provide decent information that is unique and will help give us an edge. These have had success at York Dante (esp O’Meara angle, 3x 25/1+ winners, one 54/1 BFSP), Chester, Royal Ascot,and the Curragh Irish Derby weekend. That was a mad Saturday last week. 10/1,10/1,8/1 winners from 5 bets or so, something like that. How you approach such info is up to you. We have the July Meeting, Glorious Goodwood, Galway and various others to keep us all interested. Some Members’ just like focusing on those big meetings I suspect, dipping into daily content every now and then. 

Right, I think that is enough waffle. The 21 Day trial is there for a reason- mainly to ease your way in and get to grips with the content and an approach that may suit you. We are all learning together and improving as punters I think. And the stats, in their various forms, find plenty of decent priced winners. Remember, slow and steady wins the race… there is no rush…

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MEMBERS’ POST: SAT 08/07/17 

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Sandown

None.

Leicester

2.30 – Squiggley (3yo+) 11/2 UP

Beverley

2.50 – Rossall (2YO) 3/1 UP

3.25 –

Signore Piccolo (3yo+) I3 9/1 2nd 8/1 (agonising) 

Excessible (micro dist) I1 13/2 UP

4.00 Bev – Mr Cool Cash (micro going)  H3 I3  

Haydock

3.15 – Tawdeea (micro TJC) G3 28/1 UP (ah,5th,maybe 6th,photo)

4.25 –

Full Intention (all hncps + micro TJC/runs) ES H3 G1  6/1

Sword Exceed (all hncps) 14,30 16/1

Summerghand (micro TJC) 4/1

5.00- Brogan (all hncps+micro runs) ES G1 I1  5/1

Nottingham

7.10 – Falak (4yo+) 9/4

5.40 Nott – Bahamian C (micro going) I3  12/1

Carlisle

None.  

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 20 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers from the report HERE

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

Bet of The Day…  (test) (Flat: 5/40,17p, -1.9) (Jumps: 9/59, +28.5) (total: 14/99, +26.6)

3.15 Haydock – Tawdeea – 1/2 point EW – 28/1 (gen,4 places) UP 5th/6th… typical!

My flat tipping threatens to find some form at some point – unexposed horses,some of whom are doing something different keep winning, and keep leaving them, for ‘tipping’ purposes at least. Still, it’s early days and the results may indicate I am happier when there are hurdles/fences to jump over!

Anyway, a bit on the fence with this one but he is 28/1 and for fear of him winning at those odds, i’ll have a go. He won the race last year, he is 2lb below his last winning mark, DT jumps back on board. A wide draw is fine around here and actually favoured over being drawn low over CD from what I can see in geegeez. The clincher though is the 1st time Visor- it may work, the trainer’s record with his 1st time suggests it may not- but he won in first time CP a few starts back and at least he is doing something… you get the idea. There is a niggle about GF ground but there are a couple of ok runs on it and that isn’t conclusive and in any case 28/1 shots will always have a chink or two. The visor needs to work based on that last run but Omeara’s can just bounce back into form from memory, a bit like Mark Johnston’s in that sense.

So, he is worth a dart for me at those odds. He could win, he could place, he could still be running this time tomorrow.

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Of the rest… 3.25 Bev- I had a nibble on both of those. Horse’s keep coming out and compromising the price but they both may have a squeak. Easterby’s needs to bounce back but he drops in class here and is well drawn. 13/2 looked ok in that context,but that price has gone while i’ve been typing. There are 3/4 quick horses in here who like to get on with it and with any luck Allan tracks the pace and flies through when they fade. Reverting to more prominent tactics may see this one in a better light also. Signore- well he is just a sprinter in form who got no sort of the run last day but won before that. Slight niggle on the ground and he is wide drawn- but there are plenty of NRs now, and it isn’t impossible from the car park here. It is tough, but not impossible. 9s was interesting enough.

4.25 and 5pm Haydock are well covered by the Elite Squad and a couple of the ‘top rated’ strategies. ES runners especially have reached the stage of- ‘don’t over think them Josh, back the sodding things systematically’ – a couple of monsters have gone close in recent days and I would be lying if I said I had anything on. They are in the ‘test phase’ of course, early days for all strategies, but for use ‘bettors’ we know in reality that means betting smaller stakes rather than paper trading! We can’t help ourselves. Or is that just me. Summerghand in 4.25 is lightly raced, could be anything. He is worth a saver I think if you play in that race, or you may think he is ‘the’ bet of the race. I’ve backed two in that race, cue Furtado to sour my mood! (i’m going to have to have something in him now aren’t I,at that price. Jinxed it)

That’s my thoughts on today.

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3.Micro System Test Zone

July Trainer (any odds)

2.05 Hayd – Dominating 2nd 10/1

5.40 Nott- Gold Merlion

8.45 Nott- Scotts Piper

2.25 Sand – Rusumaat UP 12/1

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Friday evening turned out to be rather enjoyable. I was in the pub with a friend (7 pints having not eaten much has left me a tad groggy this morning) – and enjoyed keeping tabs on the various winners. I hope you backed one or more of them… Dascombe’s 10/1 winner drifted like mad and goes to show the market is often clueless. He was making handicap debut and stepping up in trip. I thought 6s was a tad on the skinny side given no’ runners, the break and just how poor the last run was. But, he was 6/1 which is my cut off generally for tipping, and was doing plenty different. Anyway, he hit a jockey CD angle.

The ‘Elite Squad’ on the flat were 2/3, +9.5 points on the day…

The ‘test’ angles were 3/4, +33.5 points. Nice. Hope you backed one or more, even for ‘test stakes’.

Mark Johnston came to the party with a 20/1 winner… (haven’t checked his BFSP…) one of you messaged me on Twitter having remembered my advice  ‘the bigger the odds the better’ with this angle. So it proved. Form is often irrelevant with that yard.  With 4/1 +9/2  winners already that should ensure he doesn’t lose on the month. With any luck a couple more biggies can hit the board. We shall see how those below get on. (Now 3/8,4p, +24 points I think)

It seems to have been a good week since last Saturday. I’ve lost count of the number of 6/1+, 8/1+, 12/1+ winners.. hope you’ve had as much fun as I have. I haven’t backed all the winners sadly,but that’s something you have to deal with here. I’m happy with the state of my betting bank. You can’t be greedy.

GL today.

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Thanks again to Chris for some sterling trends work below. Found another decent winner at Sandown yesterday. As always all comments/thoughts/questions/polite disagreement … is welcome, it makes the blog what it is..