Members Daily Post: 06/07/17 (complete)

Quals + ratings pointers+ 1x bet of day

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

**

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Yarmouth

3.20- Gun Maker (all hncps+3yo+) ES 20/1 2nd 10/1 (photo!)

4.50 – Lagopus (all hncps+micro runs) ES G3 18/1

 

Haydock

2.00-

La Celebs Ville (all hncps) H3 I1 G1 11/4 UP

Conqueress (all hncps+micro TJC) 12/1 UP

4.00-

Captain Revelation (all hncps+micro TJC/runs) ES  H3 I1 G1 13/2 3rd 7/2 (20p R4)

Jay Kay (micro going) H3 I3 4/1

 

Newbury

None.

 

Epsom

7.50 – Fort Jefferson (4yo+) 10/1

 

SUMMER JUMPS

Perth 

3.10- Tangolan (all hncps) ES I1  11/1 WON 11/1>7/2

4.10 –

Owen Na View (all hncps) ES 6/1 UR 

Muwalla (all hncps+ micro runs) I3 40/1 2nd 22/1

Noche Des Reyes (hncp chase) H3 I1 9/4 WON 9/4 

4.40 – Solway Dandy (all hncps+hncp hurdle+micro dist) H3 4/1

 

Bonus

2.40 – Fire Rock 28/1 UP

3.40 –

Henpecked H3 7/2 UP

Wot A Shot I1 16/1 WON 20/1

**

 

KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 20 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers from the report HERE

**

 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

Bet of The Day…  (test) (Flat: 5/39,17p, -0.9) (Jumps: 9/57, +30.5) (total: 14/96, +29.6)

Jumps…

3.40 Perth – Henpecked – 1 point win – 4/1 (gen) UP (done by the rag outside,also a stats qualifier. 1/31 in career, 0/17,1p hurdles, what a game. Wot A Shot!)

One day I will break my own ‘tipping’ price rules- (work to do on those under 6/1 in general) and I will pick a winner – maybe that is today. I just thought there was enough going for this one and in a weak race 4s may be a point bigger than she should be. Firstly it is only the 5th hurdle of her life and the first handicap. She ran ok in the odd novice inc runs over CD. So, there could be more to come. I also noted that trainer and jockey are 4/13,5p,+17 when teaming up in handicap hurdles including 2/3 around here. And finally it is Henry Brooke- a fine judge from the front. Having looked at the pace maps there are no guaranteed front runners in here- normally when that is the case Henry can bomb out in front and attempt to make all. He will know there is no pace. It will be clear from how they circle at the start but I hope he tries to steal this from the front. The horse arrives in form after two decent runs on the flat and provided her jumping holds we could have some fun with this one. Given all those factors I couldn’t resist a nibble at 4s. I do like a bet at Perth, not sure why. Something about the track. Maybe it’s that dodgy camera angle where up the straight you never really know where your horse is positioned until jumping the last. Always in with a chance!

Of the rest…

Well I will leave the Dascombe Haydock runners to the various systems. A couple are ‘double top rated’ and that is a strategy of great promise. Captain Revelation is double top and an ES. I have something on all 4 quals there, big on a couple, savers on the others. Hopefully one, Captain Rev ideally, can go close. They are forecast thunderstorms between 1-4 so guessing a bit as to ground. La Celebs won’t mind what it does. Captain R – well, it is the drop back to 7f and RK taking over which look most interesting. His better form on a decent surface but he has far from proved he can’t handle cut in the ground, more an unknown at this stage. The ratings pointers/stats suggests he has a chance of running well in any case.

 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

None.

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Just in case you missed it…

Worth a flick through…

TTP Flat: ‘Advised Strategy’ Update: READ HERE>>> *

  • Info on 3 main strategies being monitored plus a further two others. I will keep these updated on a weekly basis.

 

**

Share on facebook
Facebook
Share on twitter
Twitter
Share on pinterest
Pinterest
Share on linkedin
LinkedIn
Share on telegram
Telegram

Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

18 Responses

  1. todays Ben Linfoot nap is Captain Revelation in 4.00 Haydock lets hope he’s right, he is due a winner. Captain Revelation is a 5pt bet for me managed to get some on @7.8 last night 6.6 on the exchange at the moment but you can still get 6-1 on Skybet.

    1. Funny old game! Missed the price, didn’t back him. I will leave that there haha. Bollocks. Fences improved his jumping, tanking from early on there, usual prominent Paddy ride. Deary me.

      1. Thank god I back the rating pointers on the jumps over 10/1 systematically even if I thought I was throwing money away there. That makes it 3 from 3 for Fergal and Paddy on their 24 hour re-appearers.

          1. Before today Fergal only had 5 runners reappearing a day later. (last time was at Perth when Josh put it up as a BoD when it placed) Of the 5 he has had 2 winners both of which were the only times Paddy was one. Twice could be a coincidence but three times suggests a pattern so certainly one to keep an eye on (I didnt actually check if the horse had ran at the same track 24 hours earlier but wouldn’t be difficult to double check given the sample size).

    1. Just over-thought it, esp when I missed price a tad. One of those. Thought he had a hard race yesterday, jumping poor. But fences have sharpened that up, drop in trip which would indicate a more prominent ride, only 3/9 over fences etc etc. Never over-think a FOB/Brennan horse that hits the stats/ES/ratings. Moronic sometimes. Right, def moving on from that now. Dealing with missed winners an essential trait in this game, still bloody annoying at that price/when win like that.

  2. Well done Tangolan backers …. i convinced myself that Owen Na View was the plot in the feature 8.5k 4.10 race …… opportunity missed for me , unless Owen saves my blushes 🙂

    1. Yep, having tipped/backed Henpecked, I couldn’t let Wot A Shot go off without some support, nabbed some 22/1- on paper no way to fancy that but the change of tactics/jockey has won that- and Richards Novice Handicap bonus stats were decent enough. Yep, financially made up for it 0/17,1p over hurdles. Not any more. 1/31 all NH races. Blimey. That’s Summer jumping for you.

      May have to go and look at those I1 rated ones again. Main spreadsheets nearly all up to date, need to look at Ratings Pointers for jumpers mind.

      1. I was trying to look last night how the flat ones with either one top rated and 2 top 3 rated OR 3 top 3 rated were doing since you didnt touch on those in your stats but whilst not quite as profitable from a very small sample size they showed promise. Only did that after I realized I shouldn’t have backed Handytalk yesterday (clearly I am running well still) going by the No. 1 strategy.

        Just need Muwalla to go in now!

        1. Yep, the I3, H3, G3 performed poorly by themselves on the Flat to the point I assumed it may be hard to construct an approach using them, but will have the data that can be mined etc.

          1. I cant remember which ones but 2 of the 3 1 top rated, 2 top 3 rated combinations stats were a combined 2/4 with the bad egg other one 0/7 so there was hope.

          2. Just had a look now and:

            H1+I3+G3=1/3 +5.5
            I1+H3+G3=1/1 +2.5
            G1+H3+I3=0/7, 3p -7

  3. I didn’t back it after yesterday…It needed kicking in the tripes!..Maybe someone did…The language here is Barack Room…. lol.

  4. Josh
    I was at perth today, The owner said Wot a shot was a complete surprise, she obviously doesn’t get the members stats Lol. I got it.
    Strangely the jockey after all being piped in by a piper walked across to the winners rostrum to give it lucky touch. I didn’t realise who it was until he mounted the horse, I told my wife what I saw so she put £2 ew on it. Don’t believe women when it comes to picking winners.LOl. She didn’t know who she was backing.
    Regards Tangolen Fo B during his interview said he thought PB didn’t ride it up with the pace enough but he came back and ate up well so he was fit enough for another go so they rode him more positively the second time.

    Mike

    1. Hi Mike, sounds like a good day to me! I wouldn’t be too harsh on Paddy for yesterday- ridden to ensure got trip in a bigger field I think, and his jumping never let him hold a position- but that was my reading. A more prominent ride was predictable given drop down in trip. And he ran ok yesterday, far from awful. Sadly I lost faith – i didn’t systematically punt him at morning prices- by time I engaged brain he was 4/1 so I left him. Annoying – but then on back of that made sure was on Wot A Shot as well as ‘the tip’ so I won’t complain. Another good day for them as a whole and if they keep finding decent priced winners I will sleep well at night, despite not backing all of them!
      Glad you had a good trip.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.