No micro systems/angles.
Three horses ‘of interest’ today…
3.10 Yarmouth -Time To Sea – 8/1 – UP 10/3 (6.8/1 about a 10/3 shot the only positive there)
- This one is unexposed having his third run in a handicap and he is the only horse to have front run in their last four starts. I am hoping that they may try and dictate from the front here. He is top 2 in Geegeez Speed ratings along with the Ivory horse- they are both well clear of the rest on that score. He is doing a couple of things differently – namely a drop in class and a move up in trip. That move in distance may mean they try and keep hold of him, but he ran the last day if it could unlock more. If you think he will stay you should ride him as such. The trainer is also ‘in form’, 2/11,6p the last 14 days, 6/27,15p the last 30 days.
6.10 Chester – Heir of Excitement – 5/1 3rd 4/1 (no excuse there,good trip,travelled well,thought coming to challenge at one point)
- I get the feeling Kevin Ryan’s horses are about to explode into life. Kevin Stott indicated as much in an interview on
ATRRUK at Hamilton last night, indicating the horses were now all bouncing again at home, after their issue with equine herpes. There have been signs of life in recent days. The ‘way in’ with this one was the form of the race he won LTO. 13 horses have run since, 5 have won, 7 won|placed in total. Solid enough. That indicates he beat horses inform/unexposed/progressive etc. So, some substance there. Pace was also interesting… he did make all the last day. He is in stall 8 here which is a niggle,albeit a non runner on his inside makes things easier. There are a few other front runners here- he doesn’t have to lead. He could track what could be a pace burnup, or he may be quick enough to lead himself. The ground should be fine. He is in form and has been very consistent on recent starts. 5s seemed just about ok.
6.50 Newmarket – Sea Shack – 5/1 UP 5/2 – (poor, possibly ran on dodgy part of track but not sure that is an excuse for that run)
- One for SDS here…and another who I think could make all. He is top speed on the ratings and out of any of these looks most likely to try and make all. SDS does like trying to do that. This one is still unexposed, 1/6,3p on turf. He drops in class from LTO. And I also noted how his best form to date, his win in a C2 conditions race at Goodwood, came with cut in the ground. He has been racing on a fast surface since and it could be he improves for a return to a softer surface. I think he will give this a good go from the front and if he can dictate, get a breather in,and then kick, they may struggle to reel him back on the climb to the line.
That will do for today. We shall see how they go.
GL with any bets.
Josh
14 Responses
3.30 pm Saturday
Newcastle Northumberland Plate
20 years – 374 runners
Handicap runs, 1-4: 0/63
Handicap wins, 1: 1/74
Runs since placed, 3-4: 0/75
Last run, Class 4/6: 0/37
Days between last run and 2nd last run, NOT 11-75: 1/85
10 years – 185 runners
No win in last 5 runs: 1/69
Distance runs, 4 or more: 0/53
Handicap wins, 0-1: 0/58
Last run, NOT top 3: 1/92
Aged 7 or older: 1/39
Last winning run: Class 4 or lower: 1/58
Six pass through: 2/11/13/14/16/18
2016 was first running on AW:
3 of the first 4 had a previous AW win.
4 of the first 5 had a previous AW place.
W-P-UP (AW record)
Higher Power 2-2-0
Sir Chauvelin 0-0-1
Jaameh 0-0-1
Lord George 2-2-0
My Reward 1-0-2
Champagne Champ 0-2-1
Higher Power (8/1) and Lord George (12/1) stand out.
Also worth adding in Natural Scenery (10/1) IMO. Only failed on ‘LTO not top 3’ trend. Has an impressive 3-2-1 AW record including 3 wins from 3 for Josephine Gordon – latest one being over CD in Feb 2017.
🙂
Maybe going back 20 years is too much, as weights, ground conditions, handicapping has changes in the last 5 to 10 years?
Do agree with you so have looked at 10 years too whenever I think I’ve needed to. Just a case of balancing out a decent sample size with relevance of the data.
I tend not to look at weights / ratings too much anyway for the trends.
A couple for tomorrow. Firstly I like the look of City Limits in the 19:25 at Newmarket. Highly thought of at home he was not quite finishing off his races last year so he has been given a wind op over the winter. Should come on for last months re-appearance run and given Cumani has booked Ryan Moore for the first time they are clearly expecting a good run . The two have an excellent record together (18/60, 30p +29.7) including 3 wins from their last 5 runs.
I also want a bet on Man About Town in the 21:10 at Newcastle. He has won his last 2 at the track and is only 1lb higher than his last win. The form of his last race has worked out well with the front 2 both winning again. (he was 7th but less than 2 lengths behind 2nd). He drops down in class here. Front runners have an excellent record over this distance at the track. The booking of Danny Tudhope looks significant given he has an excellent record when riding for Burke on the AW (4/13, 7p). Another which should go close.
Picking up on points from Thursdays post –
Order of St George – He seems to be running for prize money this season. I would go for the Arc again with one more run beforehand.
US Army Ranger – looks like a horse that finds a way to lose. I would not spend my money backing this horse.
Good luck all. Nice thinking Nick M, hopefully they go well.
no point going back in stats at all for the plate as its on tapeta now and totally different to grass
The don’t have much regard for the trends spotters do they ??
Hopefully trust the trainers’ judgement.
need to create new ones as it doesnt run like the grass track used to , which was always soft side but now new tapeta is a stiff test usually into a long 4f uphill finish
7.5 Furlong Chester Claimer Class 4 7.45
Selection 1 point win Dream Walker 2/1 with Ladbrokes Hills Sky bet and Bet Victor
Dream Walker comes out 5lbs clear of Al Khan in the ratings and
has a decent draw in stall 5, he handles the ground well and takes a big drop in grade.
Although he hasn’t been setting the world alight recently he looks to have everything in his favour today.
Al Khan also drops from grade 2 company into this grade 4 claimer but all his form in on better ground
and he isn’t a winner over further than seven furlongs. if you add the fact that he has stall 8 and is off a 77 day break 4/1 seems a short price.
Michele Strogoff and Strong Steps are both off the same adjusted rating 9lbs behind Dream Walker
and will need the selection to underperform to figure.
Michele Strogoff has course form and will stay every yard but stall 10 doesn’t help his cause.
Strong Steps was thrashed at Carlisle on Wednesday taking a keen hold and hanging but
has a decent draw today so could run a bit better than his 14/1 price tag.
Lat Hawill and Gabrial’s Kaka are a further 2lbs off the favourite
so have 11lbs to find
Lat Hawill has no form on g/s ground and although stall 4 is a decent box
has a 5lb claiming jockey on board that does not bode well in a big field race round the tight Chester oval.
Gabrail Kaka goes well at Chester and it wont be long until he comes back to form
but another better on good ground and stall 11 is no advantage
Outer Space will struggle to get the trip as all his form is over 6 and 7 furlongs
and in this type of race they are sure to go a gallop so even though he has a decent draw in 2
will find it hard to win unless all the horses rated above him under perform
Dubai’s Secret has more than a stone to find and looks up against it
Favourite Treat and Harry Holland would be more than 20 pounds better off
if this were a handicap and they to need the better horses all to run stinkers
possible that a few of them might but all them running badly giving these two a chance is unlikely
Alpha Tauri a 11 time winner at Southwell but is only rated 38 on the turf and will have to sprout wings to win, on the plus side did win last time while the better horses have been running pretty moderately
Tamarin is a maiden rated 35 and it would be a massive shock if this one won, has no realistic chance.
Summary
Dream Walker is the highest rated horse, has a decent draw, handles the course,
will have no trouble with G/S ground and takes a drop in grade
all his rivals have poor current form and he looks a solid bet.
It would be a 2 point stake if he was in top form but with all his rivals having question marks against them
he looks the most likely winner
Strong Steps at 14/1 is interesting as he has a good draw and could perform better than at
Carlisle on Wednesday when blasting off in front and dying in the final furlong.
If held up in 3rd or 4th today could be close if the selection doesn’t perform
Gabrial’s Kaka is a horse who will run well soon but the draw in stall 11
is against him, worth watching him for the future though as he looks to me as if he may be coming to hand soon.
7.00 Newcastle, 5f
Last 20 years (19 winners) – 271 runners
Last three, no top 5 : 0/46
5f runs, more than 25: 1/61
5f wins, more than 5: 1/53
Handicap wins, more than 5 : 1/48
Last 10 winners – 130 runners
Career runs, more than 40: 0/41
Career wins, more than 5: 1/44
Of those remaining, Afandem and Lexington Abbey are making AW debut, Rasheeq’s last win wasn’t over 5f (1/29 over past 10 years).
Seems difficult to narrow down any more from Escalating (12/1), Art Collection (14/1) & Doc Sportello (20/1) who have similarly good AW records.
Some books going 4 places.
Nothing on 2yos today and tomorrow as I am otherwise engaged and the races look very tricky not even taking the ground conditions into account.
Hugh
7.50 Curragh, 1m4f.
20 years – 284 runners.
Last run, NOT top 6: 1/78
Not won at least 1m2f: 0/52
6-10 handicap runs: 0/71
10 years -136 runners.
Aged 6 or older:1/39
Latest three runs, NO top 2: 1/38
Career wins, 2-5: 1/74
More than 1 handicap win: 1/48
Last run, less than 1m4f: 1/43
Don’t think any runners fit all the above.
3-5-6-10-12 miss out by one.
Preference for AJ Martin trained Landsman (14/1) who has had 2 double-figure priced places with his last 4 runners in this race & GM Lyons trained Sandstorming (20/1) who has had 2 places from his last 5 runners in this race including 16/1 2nd last year.
🙂
I wouldnt write off Heir of Excitement just yet Josh. I know the 2nd has absolutely chunks in hand (was ahead of a horse which has since won a class 2 and would have tipped him if not for a terrible draw) so suspect the front 2 were very will treated there.
yep, one to track maybe. He could well have just bumped into a couple. Thought ground would be ok but you never know, maybe didn’t pick up, plugged on a tad. Could be some of Ryans may just need a run, esp if they had the virus etc. Tad keen also. But some promise.
Bit annoyed…as after posting blog above, and later in afternoon.. I picked out the 10/1 winner of 5.30 Donny – tweeted it pre-race mind, and boosted the weekend drinking fund- sadly didn’t spot it before 10. (geegeez hncp1 report,closer inspection horse 2nd run after a break, stepping back up in trip, trainer decent record with that age of horse at track) Next time! Possibly hitting some form, long over-due.