Free Daily Post: 10/06/17 (complete)

4 Responses

1. 5.15 Haydock

   Looked at a few trends to try and narrow things down.

   3-4 runs since a win are 18 winners from 188 runners as opposed to 1/45 without such a record. Hopefully this is something to do with horses on the up with recent wins or down to a winning mark with long ago wins rather than anything trivial !

   At least one top 3 in previous 3 runs are 17/142 as opposed to 2/102 who haven’t shown much recently.

   Last run within 45 days is 17/194 as opposed to 2/48 with a longer lay off.

   This leaves Strong Steps and Commodity.

   Red Tea only misses out having ran 47 days which is harsh so I’m keeping him in.

   Accurate is very interesting too. Even though it last ran 212 days ago Ian Williams was responsible for training 1 of the longer lay off winners – 376-day lay off in fact – back in 2011. Even more interesting is that the winner was making his debut for him after moving from the late Sir Henry Cecil’s yard. Accurate is doing the same after moving from A. Fabre. Interesting enough to me anyway.

   Commodity is very short and easily swerved especially as those with latest run on the AW are
   1/41 which also discounts Strong Steps.

   So there we go, stats to discount everything ! 🙂

   Accurate 28/1 and Red Tea 7/1 seem to be the 2 plays in the race IMO.

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2. Just got back from Newmarket after a n overnight seeing my share of My Dance at Stratford. Posting these up after the races for the sake of completeness.
   10th June Newmarket 6f Nov
   4.25 Al Fujairah, Glorious Journey, Grand Koonta, Qayes
   3.75 Maksab, Cosmopolitan Queen, Take Me With You
   3.5
   3.25 Starboy
   3 Central City
   1.5 Amourice
   Preview – The races in which Central City and Grand Koonta ran have not worked out and this looks likely to go to a debutant. Al Fujairah ran a respectable race at Haydock but there is as yet no collateral form from that race.

   Prior race notes
   Grand Koonta – Lightly made, ready type, smaller in this field. Green and colty for an extended period. Ran well all things considered and given behaviour calls quality of race into question. 75
   Central City – Smaller ready type, lighter bodied than the 2nd and 3rd, doubtful he has the potential to ever finish in front of them. 73

   10th June Newmarket 6f Novice D2
   4.25 Dichato, Encrypted, Folk Tale, Tangled
   3.75 Devil’s Cowboy,
   3.5
   3.25 Faraahsah, Global Wealth
   3
   2.75 Polar Light
   2.5 Montague
   2.25
   2
   Preview – Looks as if it might be a better division. If Folk tale is indeed an 89 then he should take this. The market should reveal whether I have over-rated him. Tangled was beaten 2to in an aw auction race so does not look good enough. Dichato ran poorly on debut, 9/1 for Gosden and Dettori suggests a lesser light as did Devil’s Cowboy.
   So in my view Folk Tale the likeliest winner with Encrypted, Fahraasah and Global Wealth worth a close look in the paddock.
   Montague should place.

   Prior race notes
   Folk Tale – Medium but a bulkier model than the large Masar. Hard to say in the pre-parade who was going to be best. Folk Tale perhaps a shade less fit. Behind early then made ground on wide outside. Good effort. 89
   Montague – Bottom end of medium, very fit less scope than those who finished in front of him. Brave effort as he was up close to the pace, couldn’t get a gap at one stage and was hampered late on. 78
   Devil’s Cowboy – top end of small, bit lengthier than some but also tubular. Short on scope? 65

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3. 7.00 Stratford

   Applying the trends of horses with 1 or 2 Handicap Hurdle wins being 2/85 – 66 losers in a row stretching back to 2002 (around half of those went off SP <12/1) and those older than 8 are 0/21 (half of those SP <12/1) leave Burning Heat 10/1 and Milrow 10/1.

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4. 8.00 Stratford

   Past 20 years.
   Top 4 finish LTO are 18 from 111 runners (2/91 who haven’t).
   Those who ran less than 30 days ago are 18/138.

   This leaves us with Adam Du Bretaeu 9/2 and Emerald Rose 10/1.

   Nigel Twiston-Davies has had 10 runners in this race in last 20 years. All 10 unplaced with 8 of them at 10/1 or shorter.

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