Free Daily Post: 03/06/17 (complete)

Tips from Dr Nick Hardman + micro angle…

TIPS

None from me but instead I am going to repeat a couple of tips/previews from Dr Nick Hardman over at the Betting School. His long term record in big races is quite something…

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Epsom 3.45pm

One from the Insiders Report and Desert Law makes plenty of appeal near the top of the market.  El Astronaute is very quick and is also a previous

course winner and this race should suit.

El Astronaute @11/1

Desert Law @9/1

 

Epsom 4.30pm

This looks the weakest renewal for quite some time and loads are in with chances.  The O’Brien pair Venice Beach and Douglas Macarthur

look to offer a bit more value at the prices compared to Cliffs Of Moher.  Elsewhere, Permian probably has not got the credit he deserves in

winning the Dante and at a massive price Glencadam Glory might well outrun his odds if he avoids forfeiting a huge amount of ground at the start.

I can see him staying on past beaten horses but whether it will be good enough to land some place spoils remains to be seen.

Douglas Macarthur @25/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 4 places, B365)

Gelncadam Glory @40/1 e/w (1/5 odds, 5 places, Skybet)

Venice Beach @14/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 4 places, B465)

Permian @11/1

 

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MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

Flat 2017: +60 Days (test)

(I think these are on +24 points since being posted…)

3.00 Navan – Savannah Storm 2nd 8/1>3/1 (painful)

 

**

That is all for today.

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

10 Responses

  1. Bet365 are being very generous in the 2.55 Worcester on Owen Na View at 12/1.Has everything in his favour after holiday trip to killarney for a pipe opener,likes to front run or be prominent,if he gets into a rhythm could be hard to peg back,really should be 5/1-6/1 and wont be 12 at off

    1. Blast!…i missed it G….but just got 13/2…..
      To many meetings.

      have you any views on B Powell for Johnny Farelly….He seems to slip a few up to 10s in i’ve noticed and seems to target the summer…..Most probably talking through my proverbial…lol.

      BOL….Tony Mc.

  2. I am off out today but hope to catch the Derby at 4.30.

    Todays selections – 1.45 Wor, Oh Dear Oh Dear, 20/1; 2.50 Mus Realtra, 11/2; 1.55 Don Attention Seeker. Permian each way in the Derby.

    Good luck today.

  3. Here’s my shortlist for the Epsom dash – Excessable, El Astronaute, Bowson Fred and Majestic Hero.

    There’s a whole host of stats I’ve used to whittle it down with where I’ve tried to focus more on recent seasons and I only miss the 2012 winner since 2010. The interesting part is that is that it has picked the 1,2,3 for the last 2 years from 6 &5 selections, the 1st and 3rd from 2013 and the 1,2 from 2011 (both 7 selections), sadly just the winner from 2014 (3 selections). Obviously this is not going to work all the time but I’m going to have a bash at a forcast and a tickle at the tricast with my 4 from above.

    Using my fab 4 I will back them all to cover my butt and seek solace in many Guinness should they all fail.

    El Astronaute seems debatably best suited to the race for me followed by Excessable. I have to have a stab at Majestic Hero at a big price he’s been here and done it and recently so could still be in form. I don’t think Bowson Fred is up to winning mainly because I think he’ll get lost in the big field but he made the cut on my shortlist so he WILL place! (or come 5th)!!

    3:45pm = time to hide behind the sofa.

  4. Mick Channon had a debut 2yo winner at Goodwood last night, albeit a large alsatian in a 3 horse race but it looked supremely fit. Silca Mistress might well provide some value this afternoon.

    3rd June Doncaster 6.5f Novice
    4.25 Daffrah, Falcon’s Vision, Natural, Time Change
    3.75 Mountain Meadow, Paramount Love, Sensory, Silca Mistress
    3.5 Reflect Alexander
    3.25 Deadly Reel, Dubai Classic
    3 Juliet Capulet
    2.75
    2.5
    2.25 Alacritas
    1.75 Thundercloud, 1.5 Boss Koko
    Preview – Of those with experience Reflect Alexander and Silca Mistress promise most. Simcock has 2 of which Falcon’s Vision looks best. Until recently he did not tend to start getting debut winners until July/Aug but in the last two years the first two weeks of June have been fruitful. He has won this race before as well, he usually seems to know what he’s got so if supported to 5/1 or under.

    Prior race notes
    Reflect Alexander – Short bodied chunky Kodiac, might have been closer if hadn’t been hurried along to keep pace with the big and free Dathanna early on. Could well be a bit better than able to show here. Although looks a bit straight in the shoulder. 72
    Sensory – Plain low slung ordinary. 66
    Silca Mistress – Not seen but looked to run on well after a bad start in an ok race at Goodwood
    Hugh

  5. Hi everyone,
    First time poster 🙂
    (worth double checking everything i write as I’m no pro)

    2.00 Epsom
    20 years stats:
    Rated 80 or under are 0/60.
    18 winners had 1-3 season runs.
    19 winners had at least 1 win previously. (maidens are 1/31)
    19 winners carried 8-5 or more. (1/45 carried less)
    18 winners had at least 4 career runs.(3 career runs are 1/37 – big negative for Tartini and Bristol Missile)

    Think it leaves Desert Skyline 4/1 and Drochaid 7/1.

  6. 2.35 Epsom

    20 years stats.

    NOT in top 6 LTO 1/30.
    Rated under 100 1/56.
    NOT finished 1st or 2nd at least once in latest three runs are 2/42 (17/107 had done so).

    Think it leaves the fav Laugh Aloud 11/10 and Absolute Blast 11/1.

  7. 3.45 Epsom Dash
    20 year stats.

    LTO not 1st: Horses who had won their previous race are 0/36 which discounts the top 3 in the market.
    Weight under 8-5: Those that carried less than 8-5 are 1/75.
    Season runs NOT 1: 19 of last 20 winners were making their seasonal debut or had at least 2 runs under their belt.
    Top 3 in last 3 runs: 19 of last 20 winners had at least one top 3 placing in the 3 most recent runs.
    Latest win <6f: 18 of last 20 winners had their most recent win over <6f.
    Max win 7f / run 1m: Only 1 of last 20 winners had won over more than 7f or run over more than 1m.

    I think that leaves : 6,7,8,12,13,16, which seems like a lot so narrowing down further:
    17 of last 20 had their latest run over 5f and the same number had also won at least once in their last 10 runs.

    Final 3 !
    7 Edward Lewis 11/1
    12 Majestic hero 25/1
    16 Amomentofmadness 14/1
    Those are Sky prices who pay top 6 . Bigger elsewhere.

  8. Top 3 finish at least once in last 3 runs. Only 1 winner from 58 horses who failed to do this.
    Weight carried less than 8-7. 1/61 defied this.

    Leaves:
    4 Shraaoh 5/2
    6 Gawdawpalin 7/2
    7 Barwick 16/1

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