Free Daily Post: 22/05/17 (complete)

Bet of the day x2…

No tips or system quals today.

Nothing else really catching my eye so I will repeat today’s Members’ ‘bet of the day’…

Bet of The Day…  (test) (Flat: 2/12,9p, +10.8) (Jumps: 8/51, +28.5) (total: 10/63, +39.3)

6.00 Carlisle – Medina Sidonia – 1 point win – 8/1 – (bet365/BV) 7/1 (gen) UP 9/1

8.15 Punch – Emigrated – 1 point win – 9/1 (general) UP 16/1

Medina Sidonia – 8/1 seems fair for a horse with a decent record over similar trips, who has placed over CD, and who may well come on from the run 10 days ago. He is 2/5,3p in C5 handicaps and is back to the mark of his last win. When he placed over CD, losing by 3 lengths, he carried 10-7 on his back, which over this trip and this hill would have taken some effort I think. In any case he had 9-10 on his back with the claim. He is generally consistent at this level over these marathon trips and if he does come on for his last run, should be in the mix. The price seemed a tad on the generous side to me. It looks an interesting little race where you could make a case for a few. The yard form would be a slight concern but Easterby fires a lot of bullets and there have been enough placed horses in recent days not for me to be put off.

Emigrated- well he ticks that box of being lightly raced/unexposed and there should be more to come in handicap hurdles. He also arrives here in form having run well LTO. That was his first run since November and they drop him back by a couple of furlongs here also. There is a chance he was just out-stayed the last day. He also gets a tongue tie on and the trainer is in better form than he has been, 2/13,3p in the last 14 days, 0/26,8p the 16 days before that. In a race which doesn’t seem to be full of quality he looks to have as good a chance as many. He also races prominently, or did do the last day.



That is all for today. Good luck with any bets.


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5 responses

  1. 22nd May Windsor 5f Fillies Novice
    4.25 Darkanna, Ellthea, Out Of The Flames, Listen Alexander
    2.75 Axe Cap, Hollie’s Dream, Kodiac Express, Roses In June
    2.25 Rue Cambon
    .5 Sunset Flyer
    Preview – I was very taken by Out Of The Flames and find it impossible to see anything else winning this.

    Prior race notes
    Out Of The flames – Oh those Hannons, they knew this was a good one but it was hard to see that, she did not look quite fit enough to do herself justice today. Medium sized and deep girthed, holds herself well. Perhaps slightly less tall than Ertiyad and hard to know who might come out on top next time. Plenty left to work on and this may be the reason Ryan resorted to using the stick, I think they expected to win. 88
    Darkanna – Solidly made barely medium filly, a bit bulky and awkward looking at the back end and doubt she is going to be worth the £205k. disappointing for a Fahey debut. Fahey quoted earlier said she was a filly he liked and she would win races further down the line. 68
    Kodiac Express – Disappointing type for a Kodiac. Ran reasonably professionally but unlikely to improve much. 62

  2. 22nd May Windsor 6f Novice
    4.25 Angel Islington, Dathanna, Reflect Alexander
    3.75 Cardaw Lily, Elysium Dream
    3.25 Angel Of The South, Little Miss Lilly
    2 Not After Midnight
    Preview – As can be seen from the ratings, it looks close between Angel Of The South and Cardaw Lilly, a bit worrying that Ryan is aboard Elysium Dream, stepping up to 6f, they must be expecting a lot of improvement! On top of that we have another Appleby debut in Darkanna. Surely he can’t make it 6/6 can he?

    Prior race notes
    Elysium Dream – Tallish light to medium build filly, ok proportions, nowhere near ready and presumably been silly at home so here to learn a bit. Ran all over the place early and then ran on, or appeared to as the ones who had tried to go with the winner fell back. Probably ok for a fillies maiden at a modest track. 71
    Angel Of the South – Lightly made grey filly, well-proportioned if a fraction tubular. Not looking fully tuned but seems to have plenty of speed. Slightly harder ridden than Rock Of E. 77
    Angel Of The South – Happy with my pre-race assessment, broken by trying to go Mrs Gallagher’s pace early and her lack of scope found her out again. Quite a good front end but fizzles out, Should pick up a maiden but beginning to look expensive at 140k. 75
    Cardaw Lily – Chunky, top end of small, good big bum, still in the Hughes style, a bit fat but to some extent this was a bit of a surprise as his don’t usually show this much on debut. Probably benefited from the Spencer style and just trundled through. 76

  3. 22nd May Leicester 5f Novice Auction
    3.75 Queen Of Kalahari
    3.5 Danehill Desert
    2.75 Rio Santos
    2 Capla Dancer, Revenge, Abu Dhabi Doo
    1.5 Lady Alavesa
    1 Time For Treacle
    Preview – Not a race to get involved with from my point of view.

  4. 6.00 Carlisle
    Teak ran in the ces Last October and finished midfield
    today is a big drop in class and he has dropped in the handicap

    he has been running over 1m4f on the a/w with a very inexperienced apprentice up
    and today they step back up to 2m1f on a stiff track and have booked Franny Norton

    Think they are trying today and the horse looks set to run a decent race
    because he is 10 year old the price is liable to stand up, if he was younger he would go off favourite.

    1. yep he has been well touted in a few places, sadly no 12s or even 8s around anymore. Capper has dropped his turf mark so quickly,having not been running in turf flat races. As posted in members post I had a saver at 8s, and everything would suggest he is the most likely winner now. We shall see! Good luck.

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