Swinton Hurdle Pointers (complete)

Pointers for Swinton Hurdle + shortlist + Tips

Swinton Hurdle

20 Years

Aged 8+: 1/62,10p

12/20 Top3 in market

20/20 yet to run beyond 2m4.5f in career

  • Had run over 2m5f+: 0/85, 12p

10 Years: 10/196,39p

 

TRENDS

Previous Place

  • Won LTO: 0/60, 8p

Horse Age

  • 10/10 Aged 4-7
    • 8+ : 0/30,3p

Days Since Run

  • 8/10 ran 21-45 days ago
    • 1-20: 1/49, 8p
    • 46-75: 1/18,2p
    • 76+ : 0/18,1p

Horse Weight

  • 11-4+ : 1/36, 6p (winner 11-12)
  • 10-5 or less: 1/35, 5p (winner 10-00)

Season Runs

  • 1: -0/12,0p

Wins (Distance)

  • 3+ : 0/27,4p

Maximum Distance Winners Had RUN Over

  • 2m5f+ : 0/33, 4p

Maximum Distance Winners Had WON Over

  • Won over 2m4f+ : 0/18, 1p

Position In Market

  • Favs: 3/9,5p, +11
  • 9/10 Top 9 in market
    • 10th or lower: 1/97, 13p

 

 

***

OTHER STATS

Miscellaneous 1

Origin of Horse

  • GB: 2/51,10p
  • IRE: 8/96,23p
  • USA: 0/8,0p
  • FR: 0/32,5p

Pos Wgts (ex Clm) –

  • 8/10: 9th or lower in the weights
    • Top 8: 2/85,15p

 

‘The ‘Running’ Characteristics’

H (Horse) -Run (90 days)

  • 10/10 had 2-3 runs prev 90 days
    • 0-1: 0/44, 5p
    • 4+ : 0/31, 3p

Miscellaneous 2

Class Move

  • Up 3 or 4 classes: 0/66, 9p

Distance Move

  • Down 1f or more from last run: 0/53, 6p

Highest Class Run

  • 8/10 had run at G1/G2 before
    • Had Not: 2/89. 12p

 

Horses ‘Last Race’ Characteristics

(LR)-last run – NH Race Type

  • Chase: 0/14,0p

 (LR) Race Class (inc Irish)

  • Class 3 or 4: 0/66, 9p

 (LR) No. of Runners

  • 9 or fewer: 0/69, 10p

(LR) Distance

  • 10/10 ran over2m or 2m ½ F LTO
    • Ran 2m1f + : 0/55, 6p

(LR) Track

  • Aintree: 5/34,12p
  • Sand: 2/11,2p
  • Ayr: 2/38,10p
  • Fairy: 1/3
  • Cheltenham: 0/24,3p

 

Trainers (of interest)

  • E Williams: 2/10,5p
  • N Henderson: 2/13,2p
  • 1 win: Turnell/R Fahey/JJ Quinn/P Hobbs/D McCain/P Webber
  • Nicholls: 0/8,4p
  • D Pipe: 0/13, 3p

 

***

‘Winning Profile’ 

Yet to run over 21f+ in career/ran 2m-2m 1/2f LTO/Age 4-7/Not run C3-4 LTO/ran in race with 10+ runners/

That would leave you with: Peace+Co , Zubayr, Vosne Romanee, London Prize, William H Boney

French Bred is a negative to date, as is not having 2-3 runs only in the previous 90 days.

That leaves two…

Shortlist 

Zubayr + London Prize

And on that basis… I will stick with them…

‘Tips’ 

Zubayr – 1 point EW – 8/1 UP

London Prize – 1 point EW – 12/1 UP*

Oh, well, less said about that race the better! Stats profile didn’t hold up there sadly, and surprisingly neither of these two made the places. Moving on.

Preference for the latter but best not over-think these things sometimes. Zubayr should be in the right place if this isn’t strongly run (a chance of that on pace map – but not certain) and a repeat of that last run should put him in the mix.

London Prize – Looks solid- could have probably done with a stronger run race than LTO- he may get that here, I am not sure. But Dickie is on a front runner and he may go hard, and there are a couple of others. I wonder if Nicholls has another in here to push the pace also. In any case I think there has been some rain around Haydock and there may well be some cut. So, he looks a solid EW chance with 4 places. He ticks every box going against my profile.

No doubt one of the initial shortlist horses will now go in! Do with that as you please.

 

**

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