Members Daily Post: 01/05/17 (complete)

All qualifiers + ratings pointers + prices (+ late bonus add to 2.40)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

3.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers 

JUMPS

Warwick 

3.15 –

Rapanui (all hncps + hncp hurdle) 20/1 UP

Ultimate Dream (all hncps + hncp hurdle+ micro class + going + age) 11/2 UP

Anythingmayhappen (all hncps + micro class + going + age) H3 11/2 UP

Psychocandy (hncp hurdle) 7/1 UP

4.25 –

Spiritual Man (all hncps + hncp hurdle + micro class + going +age) 15/2  UP

Jam Session (hncp hurdle) H3 5/1 UP

5.00 –

Moonlight Flyer (all hncps) 20/1 UP

Yeats Baby (hncp hurdle) 10/1 2nd 5/1

Ducloyne Lady (hncp hurdle) 16/1 UP

 

Kempton 

4.05 – A Boy Named Suzi (all hncps + hncp hurdle) 13/2 UP

4.40- Minella Rebellion (all hncps+ hncp hurdle+hncp hurdle debut) 7/2UP

5.15 –

Artifice Sivola (all hncps) 13/2 2nd

Parsnip Pete (micro class) 13/2 PU

 

Bonus (late addition 11.25am)

2.40 War- Cobra De Mai H1 WON 3/1>2/1

 

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FLAT 

Beverley 

1.55 – Time Trail (1st 2 YO) 10/1 WON 12/1

3.40 – All You (4yo+, + micro TJC) 11/1 UP

4.15 –

Tin Pan Alley (all hncps) 20/1 UP

Sunglider (4yo+, + TJC, + 90 days) 6/1 WON 

4.50-

Jacbequick (4yo+) 11/2 UP

Billy Roberts (4yo+, + micro going) 14 G1 11/4 UP

Mon Beau Visage (4yo+) H3 9/1 UP

 

Windsor 

2.35 –

King Of Spin (all hncps) 6/1 WON 7/1

Artscape (4yo+) 8/1 UP

4.20-

Get Back In Paris (all hncps) H1 7/2 UP

Cape Banjo (micro age) H3 4/1 UP

4.55 – Lime And Lemon (4yo+) H3, G1 14,30 9/4  UP

 

Bath 

none.

 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

Nothing to add today, no ‘bet of the day test etc’- mainly as it’s a Bank Holiday and I haven’t got time to look in any depth.

 

3.Any general messages/updates etc

NOTE: There will be no speed ratings via geegeez for any JUMPS fixtures from May through to end of August. That poses a conundrum for the Summer Jumps- I am going to email Dr Peter May and see if that is just geegeez related- as if he does produce them I will just buy them direct over the summer. Or I will have a look at Inform Speed ratings or something else I can try out. The next jumps fixtures are not until Thursday so with any luck I can find a solution by then.

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

17 Responses

  1. Dr Newland – FTO Switchers in Handicaps (where the runners last race was a h,cap)

    All NH 13/43 30.23% 51.13% Place

    Hcp Hurdle 8/26 30.77%

    Hcp Chase 3/14 21.43%

    I would say .. Dr Newland verses the run of the mill summer jumps yard ….. No contest imo .. His runners will certainly be getting my attention

    Destinys Gold W4.25 5/1 SBet …. to start

    1. Good stuff Tony- just to clarify, is that first start for the yard I assume? He can certainly improve them/bring exposed horses back to life with a change in routine etc. GL Josh

    2. Bad Luck re Destiny’s G. If it had a different jockey it would have won. DJ rides everything the same way, leaves too much to do and/or tries to win cosey all the time. The only time ive seen him pushing 1 out was Might Bite at kempton on boxing day!

      1. Yea really unlucky and I may have had a go at him. He was to blame for Vyta but in fairness ever since I hammered him for his rides on Fox Appeal he appeared to be riding out of his skin- He was pushing and shoving at Vyta a long way out but apparently thought he was riding to the second winning post and mis judged the distance – not sure if that is true but a shame he didn’t start his challenge from closer to the pace- they went no pace and he would have been able to hold a position much closer…
        But on this occasion not sure he is to blame too much- he got there comfortably to my eye and wasn’t having to pick up much speed to close in – looked like he jumped ok but landing gear didn’t come down quick enough- not sure how much to blame him- and possibly riding to instructions- fine balance between winning cosily and winning by too much/ruining his mark – he was winning that for sure, plenty in hand.

  2. Morning
    My qualifiers for today.

    JUMPS
    Warwick
    3.15 – Ultimate Dream 17% 5/1+ Price taken 13/2 (stanjames)

    Kempton
    5.15 – Artifice Sivola 31% 2/1+ Price taken 13/2 (Paddypower)

    FLAT
    Windsor
    4.20- Cape Banjo H3, 50% 6/5+ Price taken 4/1 (Skybet)

    Good Luck

    1. Hi Gavin,
      Thanks for these thoughts… I am intrigued as to how you judge something as ‘value’ and align the % chance etc… is it a rather complicated method or not? You may well have explained before and sorry if so but I am always intrigued as to how others think about the game.
      Josh

      1. Hey Josh,

        Not really a complicated method, I rate each horse over a number of factors ie Form, Distance, Ground, Course, Jockey, Trainer etc… I then total up all the combined rating and then divide the horse’s rating which gives me a percent chance of winning the race according my rating, I then use so simple math again to create my odds line. I then cross match these with a service I’m testing, which pretty much does what I do manually. If I am happy with my percent chance of winning and odds, then I check the bookie odds to see if there is value against my odds lines.

  3. Josh
    Just been informed Blessed to Empress is running tomorrow 6.10 Chelmsford.
    The horse we all nearly bought into.
    Any info on it?

    Mike

    1. I will pass it on when I do… I actually did end up buying a share myself!

      Will wait to see what I receive etc and it will be a bonus section part of these members’ pages, as will anything else I can get from the trainer with any luck.

      From what we know already- she is very forward, and has been happy leading work at home. They think she has a bit of pace and has been to the track for a test experience etc. I think she will be there to run her race if good enough and I am hoping, given how they have trained her, they may make all. But it is first run and making sure they have a positive experience is important for the future also.

      I can only assume Amy thinks the surface will be fine etc.

      Will let you know more when I have it.
      Josh

  4. hi josh
    regarding speed figure problem, TOPSPEED in racing post are both good and free

    1. Hi Malc,
      Yep, Peter has confirmed there are no speed ratings over the summer so will get the thinking cap on- with any RP related ones it is just whether they suck all the value out/whether they are considered in odds etc. But, that is always an option- I will have a think.
      Josh

  5. Having a great day so far
    Miss Power 7/1 3.20 Naas E.Lynam 5/6f
    Twizzel 9/1-4/1 K Burke 3yo(3-6) 3.05 Bev
    Roc D’Apsis 11/2-7/2 3.30 Kempton T.george(Same Dist)

    1. Good day indeed Gerry, + the 12/1 winner… are they all from previous angles discussed on these pages over the months/years? I recognise the George one…

  6. The Karl Burke one is one I found last night Josh,He is a trainer i like to keep an eye on,up and coming too,always watch out for his 2yo at northern tracks.He was 3-6 with 3yo at beverley,not sure if Handicaps though.The Lynam one may be from last years Irish Bonus Pack,not sure if i have details right,was it 5 and 6f furlong handicaps,Sunglider just gone in so things getting better

  7. with my back all policy with a staking plan my results are always going to be a bit different and after a great start when i was up 301pts at highest had a terrible run (suffering a lot on prices didn’t help) but all coming good again and getting 18.5 on Time Trail helps, back up to +248pts.

    1. Good to hear Martin- a no odds cap approach is always going to be more up and down than others, and esp when you are backing them all to some degree with your own approach – but, for 2017 to date, that isn;t a bad profit figure 🙂

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