Members Daily Post: 26/04/17 (complete)

All quals + ratings pointers + Bet of the Day x2 Perth notes + prices

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

3.Any general messages/updates etc

**

 

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers 

Jumps 

Exeter

4.50 – Ladies Dancing (hncp hurdle) 8/1 UP

6.35 – Culm Counsellor (hncp hurdle) H3 15/2 UP

 

Summer Jumps

Perth 

2.35 – Miss Maiden Over (all hncps) 7/1 WON 7/1

3.35 – A Good Skin (hncp chase) H3 3/1 UP

Bonus

4.40- Baysbrown (novice handicaps) H3 8/1 UP 14/1

 

Flat 

Catterick

1.50 – Fuel Injection (micro class) 10/1 UP

4.35 – Lagenda (all hncps + micro age) G3 12/1 UP

5.05 –

Fine Example (all hncps + micro age) H3 7/1 2nd 

Bounty Pursuit (4yo+) H3 15/2 

 

Epsom

3.15 – Barwick (all hncps + micro going) 11/1 UP

3.50 –

Dolphin Vista (4yo+)  H1, G3 9/2 UP

Innocent Touch (4yo+ , +  micro age) 8/1 UP

Brorocco (4yo+) 7/1 WON 7/1

 

**

KEY:

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 20 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

 

**

2.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

Bet of The Day… (test… 6/35, +27 points)

2.35 Perth – Miss Maiden Over – 1 point win – 7/1 (general) WON 7/1

6.35 Exeter- Culm Counsellor – 1 point win – 15/2 (general) UP

 

Double handed today for this test section and after a few near misses hopefully one of these, or both, can do the business…

Miss Maiden Over– well she is unexposed in handicap hurdles, this being her second handicap hurdle start. It would appear that a combination of ground and more likely trip found her out the last day, having travelled well until 2 out. She is in the ‘could be anything’ category in handicap hurdles. This mark may indeed be too high but we are guessing there. When you are guessing a bit, you want a price and 7s is decent enough in the context of this race. It looks like she may have been kept back for a summer campaign and I suspect this is a meeting Fergal may come to target- he is 5/12,6 places all runners here in the last year. Paddy has jumped on a plane and hot footed it over from Punchy also. (maybe not for this one and that may not be significant) The break doesn’t concern me and conditions look ideal. I would like to think she is tuned up for this here. Paddy will race her prominently I suspect, or may even make all. Every horse in here has a question or five to answer. The other niggle is the actual weight,and whether she has the frame/guts to carry it. Only one way to find out.

Culm Counsellor – well, this is a shocker of a race and IF he repeats that run/win here over 19f (where he stayed on and suggested 21f may be his ideal trip) I can’t see what beats him here. That race has worked out well for the grade with the 2nd, 3rd,4th,6th and 7th all winning since, 2nd,3rd,4th winning 5 between them since. So, there is some substance to that run. He then won a small field race at Taunton over 24f, I suspect the moderate pace helping him get home. In a bigger field NTO he didn’t seem to see out that trip, or maybe his recent exertions took their toll. He then had a mid season break and returned over fences LTO- interesting?  A run just to get some fitness into his legs maybe. It could be that he is just out of form but these conditions look ideal and he seems to have been found a weak race to my eye. It is all about what form he is in. If he is ‘in form’ and he is expected to go close (market may guide) I think he takes all the beating on all known evidence we have. It is a moderate level though, so nothing ever surprises.

**

 

3.Any general messages/updates etc

PERTH…

Their April 3 Day Meeting starts tomorrow and I have pulled together some brief notes for those of you who like flicking through such things. These will be freely available (not members only) and you can find them HERE>>>

Punchestown notes, if you missed them, can be found HERE>>>

**

Punchestown ‘Qualifiers’

‘Micros’

7.15 – Mystic Theatre (Mullins/NHF) 2nd

Others…

3.40-

Drumcliff (H Fry all) BD

Close Shave (JH/Distance/Unexp… 3/8,4p in 2m5f hncps at meeting) UP

Magic of Light (JH, as above) WON 18/1>11/1

4.20 –

Baden (Hendo/age/career runs.. 4/10,6p) UP

4.55 –

Bon Papa (JP/Chelt LTO… only of real interest if 14/1< here, small no.s though, 0/7,0p 16/1+) DNQ

6.05 –

Poli Roi (GE, French Bred,small numbers) UP

6.40 –

Viconte Du Noyer (Chelt LTO/PU.. 4/8,5p) 2nd 25/1

Polidam (Mullins/hncp debut..just type of profile he targets the handicaps with) UP

**

That is all for today, good luck with whatever you play.

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

8 Responses

  1. Morning Josh and all
    Not a bad at all yesterday, #1 start winner to keep the bank growing and I have a risk free bet to come for the 3.40 Punchestown from the Bet365 feature race 4/1+ winner offer ‘NICE BONUS’ 😉 . My so called percentage chance of winning / value had a first winning day with of 4.5pts.
    My qualifiers for today are
    Jumps
    Exeter
    4.50 – Ladies Dancing 17%, 5/1+ Price taken 8/1

    Flat
    Catterick
    5.05 – Bounty Pursuit H3, 15%, 6/1+ Price taken 15/2

    Epsom
    3.15 – Barwick 20%, 4/1+ Price taken 12/1

    Good luck 

  2. Think Nicky will try to give Brian Harding a winner before he retires,might be Anywaythewindblows on Friday

  3. Paddy needed to be at his best to get MMO home there,she nearly folded,nice price too,bet of the day back on track

    1. Yep, I would never call it off track haha- given the guns are aimed at 7/1+, it will be bumpy as we know- I think our luck is more back on track, we were due some after numerous punted horses that have placed/fallen when getting involved. Nice to get one in front, gets back recent losses in quick time.

      Yep a superb ride, a fist pump which may have been for himself- she looked a bit green still, jumping scratchy. She should only improve, at her level. Probably hit front sooner than ideal, nothing he could do about that and they didn’t half crawl to my eye. May be better in a more strongly run race.

    1. Cheers John, yep they are going well and in theory there is no reason why it shouldn’t keep ticking over- a rather simple formula..
      -TTP pick > decent price (6/1, 7/1+)
      -On the younger/unexposed in race conditions end of the spectrum, lightly raced
      -reasons why improvement may be on its way (2nd handicap run here, better ground,drop in trip,only second handicap run,had a break/come here fresh)
      -yard in form, or in any case not really cold (linked to price- can overlook at 0/30,2p form if they are 20s+, well I will)

      If I can not bottle some of the 16s+ shots that have a similar profile to that winner, if I tick those boxes, it should just keep ticking over, with the odd bump which is par for the course when dealing with those average odds)

      Glad you had a piece.

  4. Nice win for the first BOD well done Josh, nearly missed putting them on half asleep this morning good job I didn’t 😀

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