TIPS
None. 3.35 Perth looks a tricky affair, on first glance A Good Skin/Ballykan/Cultram Abbey may be the place to focus, although I don’t like their prices. Beeves may give it a good go from the front. Not a race I want to dive in. As per the notes below, NTD does well with fancied runners here, George does well in Handicap chases and Richards does well in all races,with handicap hurdles being a neg. I will sit it out!
MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES
Alan King (16/1<)
3.15 Epsom- William Hunter
Trainer/Jockey Combo – Live Test
2.35 Perth – Miss Maiden Over (12/1<) WON 7/1
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Some complimentary notes for Perth’s 3 Day Meeting below, a few trainer pointers of interest….
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Members ‘Bet of The Day’
Another decent day for the members TTP stats yesterday, a 16/1 winner for the #1 advised strategy…
As a bonus there are two horses below from my Bet of The Day ‘test’, whereby I use the qualifiers against my main jumps stats packs (nothing to do with the Perth notes above) to pick out those that look most interesting to me…
Bet of The Day… (test… 6/35, +27 points)
2.35 Perth – Miss Maiden Over – 1 point win – 7/1 (general) WON 7/1
6.35 Exeter- Culm Counsellor – 1 point win – 15/2 (general)
Double handed today for this test section and after a few near misses hopefully one of these, or both, can do the business…
Miss Maiden Over– well she is unexposed in handicap hurdles, this being her second handicap hurdle start. It would appear that a combination of ground and more likely trip found her out the last day, having travelled well until 2 out. She is in the ‘could be anything’ category in handicap hurdles. This mark may indeed be too high but we are guessing there. When you are guessing a bit, you want a price and 7s is decent enough in the context of this race. It looks like she may have been kept back for a summer campaign and I suspect this is a meeting Fergal may come to target- he is 5/12,6 places all runners here in the last year. Paddy has jumped on a plane and hot footed it over from Punchy also. (maybe not for this one and that may not be significant) The break doesn’t concern me and conditions look ideal. I would like to think she is tuned up for this here. Paddy will race her prominently I suspect, or may even make all. Every horse in here has a question or five to answer. The other niggle is the actual weight,and whether she has the frame/guts to carry it. Only one way to find out.
Culm Counsellor – well, this is a shocker of a race and IF he repeats that run/win here over 19f (where he stayed on and suggested 21f may be his ideal trip) I can’t see what beats him here. That race has worked out well for the grade with the 2nd, 3rd,4th,6th and 7th all winning since, 2nd,3rd,4th winning 5 between them since. So, there is some substance to that run. He then won a small field race at Taunton over 24f, I suspect the moderate pace helping him get home. In a bigger field NTO he didn’t seem to see out that trip, or maybe his recent exertions took their toll. He then had a mid season break and returned over fences LTO- interesting? A run just to get some fitness into his legs maybe. It could be that he is just out of form but these conditions look ideal and he seems to have been found a weak race to my eye. It is all about what form he is in. If he is ‘in form’ and he is expected to go close (market may guide) I think he takes all the beating on all known evidence we have. It is a moderate level though, so nothing ever surprises.
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That is all for today.
15 Responses
Thanks for the perth stats josh ,will be travelling to perth today to take in the 3 days. Will come in handy i,m sure.
Hi John, no problem, yep with any luck they will help point the way – certainly don’t use them to be put off a horse that you fancy, but some of the info useful- esp those that do well when the money is down/certain odds. GL
Josh
A little confused with your sel A Maiden over?
Your stats for Fergal are Run within 25days or 241+
as he is returning after 128 days surely this falls in between your parameters.?
Mike
Hi Mike, that is nothing to do with the ‘Perth’ notes. Those two are lifted from my members post- she is a qualifier against my TTP Summer Jumps stats for Fergal at Perth, in general. (not specific to this meeting- and in any case such notes only a guide, dealing with fairly small numbers in general-never to be used to be put off a horse really)
Josh
Has anyone got an opinion about Vatican Hill
in the Lingfield claimer at 4.45 he is top rated but has been running like a dog.
in what looks like a match if you take him out of the picture the Hannon horse looks very
tempting.
Jamie Osborne horses in claimers can often run miles below their rating or am I
stating something that the stats don’t agree with?
Not a race or indeed a card I have any intention of looking at Peter! 🙂 My thoughts on ‘the sand’ are worth very little. In general I wouldn’t go near an AW claimer unless you have a micro/strong stats or something, but that’s just me. Dare say someone out there may relish these races…
Stats are vital I agree but if you combine them with thinking outside the box as well
then you have a powerful combination.
My weakness is I don’t use the stats enough and I am always trying to get an angle.
The point is 99% of punters dismiss claimers as a bad betting medium but if you
investigate further you will find that a lot of the favourites are the top rated horses
but they are often beaten by a lesser rated horse who is consistent over the distance.
be very wary of a 90 plus rated horse dropped to this level if you had a horse capable
of running to 90 it would be worth 20k plus so why would you run it to be claimed for £10k.
Distance is also important I would rather back a horse rated 65 over a horse rated 75
in a 7f claimer if the 65 rated horse has several wins at the distance
and the 75 horse has tried and failed over 7f even if they did it in better class
and who have never won further than 6f.
yesterdays Hannons horse hacked up after being backed from 9/4 to evens
Osbornes horse went the other way and ran like a dog again
Hi Josh
My systems selections today pretty well mirror most of yours.
Perth 2.35 MMO..F O’Brien
Catchthemoonlight…Miss L Russell
EXE 6.35..Culm Councellor
Boss In Boots…T Vaughan
As to the Perth 3.35 I have
PER 3.35…Cocktails At Dawn…N Henderson
Beeves..Jennie Candish
System also gives Ballycan …NTD but dont bet under 4/1 so hope one of the other two comes good
Cheers Stuart
Afternoon all,
Been a little busy fighting off Vertigo which really is no fun at all. A Good Skin should win the 15:35 at Perth although there is no value at the price now. The one which has drifted to a decent enough price which I want to back is Pettite Power in the 16:40. Went into the notebook when beating Shanroe Santos two starts ago. Winner has won twice since including beating the well treated Upswing who has won twice since. Looked to be coming to win LTO before falling. He gets the services of Paddy who is 121 on the horse. I still think he is well treated and if the fall hasn’t left a mark should be good enough to take this.
Good call on Miss Maiden Over
Pete
Thanks again josh had a nice bet on Miss maiden over. Followed by another couple of nice winners beeves and last date. Lovely weather nice crowd all in all great day out. Looking forward to day 2 of the festival. Will try to stay ahead.
Hope your fighting fit now Nick nice to see you back
i’m off to Beverley tomorrow so any info or tips gratefully recieved, if anyone else is going please say hello , i look like this (picture on hairy bikers success stories) https://www.hairybikersdietclub.com/
hi Josh some good winners on tts stats today and some close seconds at 12/1 8/1 7/2… You mention an advised strategy,,, what’s this please
That relates to the members club and the ratings pointers (horse race base and Geegeez speed) that I also use to add more sophistication and narrow down bets. #1 strat relates to those that are top 3 on those ratings and are 10/1 +. There is some detail in the results tab at the top, first post.