None. 3.35 Perth looks a tricky affair, on first glance A Good Skin/Ballykan/Cultram Abbey may be the place to focus, although I don’t like their prices. Beeves may give it a good go from the front. Not a race I want to dive in. As per the notes below, NTD does well with fancied runners here, George does well in Handicap chases and Richards does well in all races,with handicap hurdles being a neg. I will sit it out!
Alan King (16/1<)
3.15 Epsom- William Hunter
Trainer/Jockey Combo – Live Test
2.35 Perth – Miss Maiden Over (12/1<) WON 7/1
Some complimentary notes for Perth’s 3 Day Meeting below, a few trainer pointers of interest….
Members ‘Bet of The Day’
Another decent day for the members TTP stats yesterday, a 16/1 winner for the #1 advised strategy…
As a bonus there are two horses below from my Bet of The Day ‘test’, whereby I use the qualifiers against my main jumps stats packs (nothing to do with the Perth notes above) to pick out those that look most interesting to me…
Bet of The Day… (test… 6/35, +27 points)
2.35 Perth – Miss Maiden Over – 1 point win – 7/1 (general) WON 7/1
6.35 Exeter- Culm Counsellor – 1 point win – 15/2 (general)
Double handed today for this test section and after a few near misses hopefully one of these, or both, can do the business…
Miss Maiden Over– well she is unexposed in handicap hurdles, this being her second handicap hurdle start. It would appear that a combination of ground and more likely trip found her out the last day, having travelled well until 2 out. She is in the ‘could be anything’ category in handicap hurdles. This mark may indeed be too high but we are guessing there. When you are guessing a bit, you want a price and 7s is decent enough in the context of this race. It looks like she may have been kept back for a summer campaign and I suspect this is a meeting Fergal may come to target- he is 5/12,6 places all runners here in the last year. Paddy has jumped on a plane and hot footed it over from Punchy also. (maybe not for this one and that may not be significant) The break doesn’t concern me and conditions look ideal. I would like to think she is tuned up for this here. Paddy will race her prominently I suspect, or may even make all. Every horse in here has a question or five to answer. The other niggle is the actual weight,and whether she has the frame/guts to carry it. Only one way to find out.
Culm Counsellor – well, this is a shocker of a race and IF he repeats that run/win here over 19f (where he stayed on and suggested 21f may be his ideal trip) I can’t see what beats him here. That race has worked out well for the grade with the 2nd, 3rd,4th,6th and 7th all winning since, 2nd,3rd,4th winning 5 between them since. So, there is some substance to that run. He then won a small field race at Taunton over 24f, I suspect the moderate pace helping him get home. In a bigger field NTO he didn’t seem to see out that trip, or maybe his recent exertions took their toll. He then had a mid season break and returned over fences LTO- interesting? A run just to get some fitness into his legs maybe. It could be that he is just out of form but these conditions look ideal and he seems to have been found a weak race to my eye. It is all about what form he is in. If he is ‘in form’ and he is expected to go close (market may guide) I think he takes all the beating on all known evidence we have. It is a moderate level though, so nothing ever surprises.
That is all for today.