Free Daily Post: 25/04/17 (complete)

Punchestown ‘qualifiers’ + horse of interest…








As a bonus I have put up the ‘qualifiers’ from my Members Notes. As always these are only ever pointers but with any luck a few will run well. The Craven Meeting notes found a few decent winners and hopefully these can do the same…

‘Micros’ (x3 Mullins/Jessie H/Hendo)

4.20 – Forge Meadow

6.05 – Hollowgraphic (14/1< best)


4.20 – Labaik (GE Fr Bred- small numbers)


Light That (JH)

Veinard (GE Fr)

Dakota Moirette (GE Fr)

Tudor City (6/1<)

5.30 –

God’s Own

Sir Valentino

6.05 – Valdieu (GE Fr)

6.40 –

T Toi Phil (GE Fr)

Anibale Fly (JP Novices + Martin, 6/1<)


Non Members can access my Punchestown notes for £4.80 HERE>>>


A horse of interest…

Every now and then these run well, but there is always some method to my madness…

6.30 Wolvs- Size Matters – 10/1- Mark Walford is 3/9 with his handicap debutants in the last year, 1/1 at Wolvs. That caught the eye. He is 1/6,5p with 3 year olds in handicaps on the AW, and he is also ‘in form’- 3/13,5p last 14 days. This horse has had a break after three maiden runs, takes a slight step up in trip (1.5f) and gets a tongue tie on. There is enough there for me to have a dabble at 10s. As always with this type you would like to see them being backed.


That is all for today.


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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

17 Responses

  1. how import is altitude in soccer matches

    Answer very in the right circumstances.
    Altitude is hard to deal with if you haven’t had enough time to acclimatise
    so I am always looking for teams based at sea level
    visiting teams at 2500+ altitude when they have played their previous
    game at home within seven days

    The logic behind that is simple if the lowland team played at home the week before they have had no time
    to acclimatise to the altitude if they then go to a very high altitude

    If they have played their previous game at altitude or have had more than 10 day to prepare
    then they can perform better

    This effect leagues in Peru, Bolivia,Columbia and Ecuador
    And the Copa Libadores(south Americas champions league)
    Copa Scudamerica(equal to the Europa league) as well as national teams in world cup and
    Copa America qualifying

    An example is Argentinas loss away to Bolivia (2-0) in La Paz altitude 3600 meters
    after they had beaten Chile 7 days earlier in BUENOS ARIES.

    so the system is simple back all altitude based teams at home against lowland based teams
    if the lowland team played the previous match within 7 days either at home or away
    to another lowland team

    if anyone is interested in this system all the matches can be found on soccerway
    and I can supply a list of all the club meters above sea level from all 4 leagues.

    if you can find websites that give team news injuries suspension etc
    it will all add to the bets

      1. I have indeed operated this system before. The advantage is significant over a large sample. However the bookmakers are mostly not fools and so adjust for this mostly in prices. Also I found that where I am a serious punter and that the matches were taking place whilst I was asleep in the UK I could not sleep. Therefore I gave it up for health reasons! For those of you who can sleep without worrying how things are going it may be for you?

        1. Get your point Martin must admit I have found myself checking out results at 3am
          from Peru etc and I think the point you make about bookies adjusting their prices is correct
          but I do think they look at all altitude matches the same using stats as their main guide.

          but the home record of an altitude team isn’t as clear cut as the stats may suggest when you take out
          their results against other altitude teams and lowland teams who have had enough time to get to the venue
          and acclimatise.

          Blooming are a lowland team but have 5 away games coming up all against altitude teams
          by game 3/4 they will have spent enough time at high altitude to narrow the gap

          I like the combination of a team playing at sea level having a long plane flight
          to an altitude base and playing with 7 days
          if you are very patient and don’t want to over do your hand
          wait to the those criteria apply but only bet when the lowland team played at
          a non altitude venue within 4 days and the altitude team are not short priced favourites.

          all the games can be found on Soccer way.

          my weekness is I don’t know enough about the teams re injuries suspensions etc
          that are freely available from the premier league
          maybe you know where to obtain this info and who knows between us
          we could put together a real killer system and make enough money not to worry about
          getting up at 3 am

          If anyone has ideas that can strengthen my tactics please feel to pass it on
          while I feel my ideas are sound I know full well that things can always be improved when
          you get input from other players

  2. Today the 2yo action is pretty much at sea level. Brighton where desperate trainers send their 2yos and desperate punters back them.

    Date & Title: 25th April Brighton 5f Maiden
    3.25 Declaration Of Love
    2.75 Milton Road, Diamond Pursuit
    2.5 Global Exceed
    2 My Guy, Controversial Lady
    Preview – On breeding and price one might think Global Exceed should take this, however Brighton is not an easy track for a 2yo on debut, never mind ED Dunlop’s fto record and J Quinn on 2yos so not worth the risk. If he is a better one why on earth start him at Brighton?
    Diamond Pursuit was 50/1 on debut and having seen two who finished in front of her yesterday must conclude it was a poor race.
    I have seen both Milton Road and Declaration of Love, probably over-rated them on debut but think they will still be 3-4lbs better than Diamond Pursuit. Charles Bishop rides this course very well whereas Jack Mitchell has only had 1 winner from 16 rides here.
    Too close to call without seeing them so fancy a reverse forecast Milton Road and Declaration of Love.
    Prior race notes
    Declaration Of Love – just under med size for time of year. An opportunity here to assess how Tom Clover would turn out his 2yos. DoL looked as fit as anything in the paddock, was well behaved and ran a competent race from a wide draw jumping well and tracking the winner until 2f out under hands and heels. 71
    Milton Road – Lower medium, compact and quite strongly made. Still a bit woolly and not fully tuned. Ran a competent race and should be competitive at a small track nto. 70
    Controversial Lady – Small and modest looking filly. Typical Stan Moore debut. 60

      1. HUGH
        Do you think that foaling dates are relevant in early season Juvenile races
        or am I desperate for an angle and have my head in the clouds?

    1. Oh the agony. it looked as though I had the forecast until the last half furlong. John Egan does not take no for an answer!

    1. Well done, can you tell me before next time! What made you go for him? (assume something made you think that was a rather big price for a dart…)

      1. it was just that it had won over 1m4f on flat and had been hurdling over 2m (badly) and i didn’t fancy anything else in the race so bunged it on for a bit of interest.

  3. Size Matters was doing well, just ran seemed to run out of steam near the end. Proof that not every losing tip is a bad one!

      1. bolivian league
        1 BLOOMING 500METERS
        2 BOLIVAR 3600METERS
        4 GUABIRA 200 METERS
        5 REAL POTOSI 3960 METERS
        6 SAN HOSE 3870 METERS
        10 SPORTS BOYS 339 METERS

        NOTE THERE ARE 5 TEAMS with grounds over 3600 meters
        2 teams between 2500 and 3000
        and 5 teams below 700 meters
        when the lowland teams go to the 5 over 3600 meters altitude
        venues their chance are slim but if their last game was at home with 7 days
        the acclimatisation will be short and their chance are almost nil

        the Peruvian league is split into two groups of 8
        in group 2 sport huyancao play at 3700 meters
        real carilaso 3554 meters utc cajamaca 2750 comerciates un 2788
        the other 4 teams in the section play at sea level

        In group 1 melgar 2335 sports Rosario 3052 univ comercio 2750
        Ayacucho 2751 are the altitude teams
        sporting cristal, univ san marc, academa cantalao and allianza athletico
        are all low land teams
        Cristal from lima are the best team but the same rules apply if any of the low teams go to altitude
        and their last game was at home or away to another lowland team within a week they will struggle

        sport huyancano record is interesting away they are dire but at home they
        have an awesome record but that is even better when you take out the other teams from altitude
        and lowland teams who have had time to acclimatise
        either with a 10day+ break since their last game or their last match was away to another altitude team
        lowland teams who played their last game at home within 7 days have a up hill struggle when the go to 3700 meters

        in Ecuador the best two teams are Emelec and Delfin
        both lowland based
        Barcelona fuerz amarilla river Ecuador are the other three lowland teams

        Universidad Catolica 2850 meters
        indediente de valle 2510
        deportivo Cuenca 2650
        ldu quito 2850
        el nacional 2850
        clan juvenile 2510
        are the altitude teams.

        DELFIN are top or the league with a 6 -4-0 record
        and have drawn at several high altitude venues
        packing their defence and keeping running down to a minimum
        at home their superior ability has seen them head the league
        the coach has done his home work and they are a very strong defensive outfit.

        no 3000 meter teams
        patrotas boyaca 2820
        santa fe 2640
        la eqiudad 2640
        millionares 2640
        deportivo pasto 2527

        are tough places for jaquires de loco at 18 meters
        and Alianz petrolara 15 meters to go

        I like the following senerio
        lowland team away to altitude team when the lowland team played at a non altitude venue within 7 days
        and have a record of conceding goals no matter how many they score
        if they are an attacking team who like to push forward then altitude will really find them out
        the more open the game the better for the home team
        if the record of the low land team on their travels shows a lot of 0-0 and 1-0 results
        you can bet your life they will put 11 men behind the ball and may come away with
        a 0-0 or even snatch a 1-0 on the break.

        1. EXAMPLE
          On May 31st PATROTAS BOYACA(2820 meters) from Columbia
          play their 2nd leg of their Copa Scudamerica tie against Everton of
          Chile who hail from the costal town of Vina del mar.

          Everton won the first leg 1-0 at sea level but Patrotas must have strong hopes of
          turning the tie around in their sky high stadium, but is it a bet.
          well in my opinion no.
          on the 20/5/15 PATROTAS are away to Millionares(2550 meters) in the columbian league
          then have a home game against Envigadao on the 27/5/17 so there is no doubt they will be acclimatised

          Everton on the other hand play in the Chilean league on the 20th and them have no game until they play PATRUTAS on the 31st giving them 11 days to fly to Columbia and get acclimatised
          in theory they need more but if they played in the Chilean league on the 27th and arrived in Columbia on the 28th or 29th, after the flight and only had 2 or 3 days to acclimatise they would be no hopers
          With PATROTAS likely to be a shade of odds on for this game it is a no bet
          if Everton played on the 27th then you could happily wedge on The Columbians as low as 4/6

          1. ok I gave you a no bet now I will give you a

            on the 17th of May The Strongest from Bolivia take on Brazils Santos
            in the group stages of the Copa Libadores
            Santos without doubt are the better team and they went to SANTA FE
            another altitude team in the group and got a 0-0 draw in a dire game
            but on the 14th Santos are playing a Brazilian league game in Rio
            against FLUMINESE
            while the Strongest are playing a local derby against Bolivar in LA PAZ

            Santos have then only got 2 days to acclimatise to the 3600 meter altitude at The Strongest
            base in La Paz and have also face a 1147 mile flight from Rio.
            while the strongest players although away to Bolivar are still in La paz
            so there is no travelling no acclimatisation needed and Santos look up against it
            they will obviously come looking for a point as they did when they went to Santa fe
            but with the Strongest needing the points I think they will show more ambition than Santa Fe
            and look strong to win
            nothing in football is certain but
            I would price it up like this The strongest 60% chance of winning
            draw 25% Santos 15%
            that would price the match up at 4/6 The strongest 3/1 the draw and 5/1 Santos.

            as Santos are the better team top the group and drew at Santa fe at altitude
            the likely betting is 6/4 2/1 and 3/1
            so to me any bet struck on the strongest better than 10/11 or laying Santos at 4/1 or less would be value

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