Members Daily Post: 24/04/17 (complete)

All quals + ratings pointers + prices + Bet of the Day.

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

3.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers 

Jumps

Warwick 

2.20 – The Tailgater (all hncps+hncp hurdles+micro class/going/age) H3, G3 7/1 Fell 3/1

2.50 – Robin Of Locksley (all hncps) G1 10/3 UP

3.55 – Global Dream (all hncps+hncp chase) H1, G3 6/5  UP

4.30- Supakalanistic (NHF) 7/1 UP

5.00-

General Malarkey (NHF) 25/1 UP

Atlantic Grey (NHF) 5/1 UP

Stipend (NHF) 5/1 UP

World Premier (NHF) 7/1 WON 5.6/1> 5/2 (20p R4)

 

Bonus

3.25 – Abidjan (novice hncp chase) 13/2 2nd 7/1

**

Flat 

Pontefract 

2.00- Sinaloa (1st 2 y-o) 2/1 3rd

2.30 –

Sands Chorus (all hncps) 11/1 2nd 

Sovereign Bounty (micro, runs 90 days) 20/1 UP

3.35 – La Fritillaire (all hncps) H3 4/1 UP

4.40 – Oriental Relation (all hncps) H1, G1 15/2 WON 15/2

 

Windsor

5.15 –

King Of Swing (all hncps) 20/1 UP

Stake Acclaim (4yo+) 6/1 UP

6.15 – Little Palaver (4yo+) 14,30 12/1 WON 12/1 > 8/1

6.45 –

Cape Discovery (4yo+) 7/1 UP

Lime And Lemon (4yo+, + micro runs this season) 14,30 H1, G1 3/1

7.45 – Jack The Laird (4yo+) G1 13/2 UP

**

KEY:

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 20 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

Bet of The Day (test… 6/34, +28 points)

2.20 Warwick – The Tailgater – 1 point win – 7/1 (general) Fell last, 7/1>3/1 (10p R4)*

*ah well another one to go down that was well backed. 7s was too big and there was plenty of money for him. He travelled well here and was starting to motor when coming down at the last. He would have gone close given he was just getting into top gear but no complaints- that happens, esp when you’re held up and have to make up ground and with an inexperienced pilot on top. They didn’t look to go much of a pace either,which may not have helped as it turned into a bit of a dash. He may not have got there anyway. Maybe a track with a longer straight will suit. Given how he moved through this,and how he was closing, he could be ahead of the handicapper by a fair chunk. Doubt he will be 7s NTO sadly. Frustrating. 

I am still just focusing on the jumps for this test ‘bet of the day’ and will dabble in the flat once it settles down a bit. Anyway, this horse ticks the boxes I think for the type of profile I like to attack in this test section – he is lightly raced, this being only his 6th handicap hurdle, and the hope is pinned around that run two starts ago, over 19f. It doesn’t look like he stays 24/25f, having travelled well for a long way LTO before fading in the last couple of furlongs. A repeat of that Donny run the time before should put him right in the mix here. It could be he is a bit of a weak finisher- now that may have been due to the yard form, and Jonjo’s are going much better now. Or maybe the 61 day break suggests they have had a tinker with his wind or something. He has two career wins to his name so I can’t think it is an attitude problem. He is Top 3 rated on both ratings sets also, and Jonjo is 3/11,5p with handicap hurdlers at the track returning after 60+ days. He ticks a lot of Jonjo’s micro angles for the track and his son takes off a handy 7lb. He has looked decent enough and has won a couple of handicap hurdles. All in all, 7s looks a shade too big to me and with any luck there is market support. He will travel into it well I think, and we shall see what he can find after the last.

**

That will be all for this bit today.

 

3.Any general messages/updates etc

I will pull together something for Punchestown today, and post up a link this afternoon, in tomorrow’s post.

**

Post complete.

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

3 Responses

  1. Happy Monday
    Sunday showed a loss of 2.33pts so that’s -22.33pts overall form the start.
    Going through the Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers my test qualifiers for today are

    Jumps

    Warwick
    3.55 – Global Dream H1, G3 46% Value 6/4+, Price taken 6/4 skybet
    5.00- Atlantic Grey (NHF) 94% Value Evens+, Price taken 5/1 Coral

    Flat
    Windsor
    6.45 –
    Lime And Lemon H1, G1 19% Value 9/2, to match Betfair Ex Min odds 5.5 BFSP

    Good luck all

  2. back on track with some recent loses coming back and managing to beat SP on all 3 winners for a change,Oriental Relation being my biggest bet of the day as it was H1,G1 – 6pts @9.8. back to +155pts which to my mind just shows you have to just stick with it.

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