5.00 Fairyhouse: Irish National Tips
Alpha Des Obeaux – 1 point win – BFSP UP
Abolitionist – 1 point win – BFSP 3rd
Haymount – 1 point win – BFSP UP
Oh well no complaints there, Abolitionist gave me something to cheer looking like he may go close turning for home. Haymount ran ok. Thunder And Roses ran well, such a shame he got bumped in the big one. They have all bumped into one there who looks destined for the top table of the staying chase division. No doubt plenty more to come. Impressive for one so inexperienced, brilliant ride, probably only thought he was in a 4 runner race. That’s three tipping races in a row a shorter priced, ‘could be anything’ type has romped home. Damn.
The shortlist is below and I have very much focused on that. As always with races like this it looks a tricky affair to work out. I have gone BFSP on the lot personally and will declare at those prices. You can of course take a price but I can’t see many shortening drastically in this race. I could be wrong.
Alpha Des Obeaux – he is lightly raced and unexposed, with a touch of class. I believe he has burst blood vessels the last twice which doesn’t fill you with confidence but he should be a decent price here and given his place on the shortlist I had to have a go I think.
Abolitionist – well he has been in superb form for his new trainer and deserves a crack at this prize. Like with most in here the trip is a bit of an unknown but I can’t see a reason not to have a go. Ticks plenty of boxes and with luck in running should run his race again.
Haymount- well he ticks that ‘distance LTO micro’ of sorts below, which in effect is those that ran in the NH Chase at the Festival LTO I think. Both he and Arbre D V did that. He ran a decent race there, even more so given he took the first fence with him. He also came from the back in a race that wasn’t too strongly run I don’t think. Mullins is now 0/20,2p in this but I won’t let that put me off. If he has a blowout here, maybe it is just a race he never targets with the right horse. He ticks enough boxes and with any luck will stay.
Of the others…well you know I have probably left the winner on the shortlist, or more likely they have not been mentioned at all.
Bonnie Kate came into this race last year in much better form and ended up being PU. She was PU LTO and those two things have put me off a tad. But you can make some sort of case and could be ‘small change’ material. But I have some doubts.
Arbre De Vie- stamina is a real unknown having rarely raced beyond 2m5f. But, he does tick plenty of other boxes and on the approach I used clearly wouldn’t be a total shock- but stamina the big query really. I would have liked to have seen some more solid form over 3m,3m+.
Sambremont- isn’t in best form and all of his career wins/best efforts have been in heavy. I was happy to dodge him.
I have used some ‘random/strange’ stats to create that shortlist below, but they stood out to me and given how recent weeks have gone I won’t change that approach. It is likely I haven’t mentioned the winner but with any luck these three can run a big race.
GL with whatever you fancy. That’s it for tips today.
Irish Grand National Shortlist
I used a ‘winning profile’ of… ran in last 90 days (20 year stats decent enough) , 5th or lower in the weights, Not 1-2 handicap chase runs only, ran in Novice chase/handicap chase/novice hurdle LTO, Not a G3 LTO, 7+ runners, Not 2m2f-2m5f LTO.
I think that leaves: Alpha Des Obeaux / Abolitionist / Haymount / Arbre De Vie / Bonny Kate / Sambremont.
(full trends in the comments below)
Trainer/Jockey Combo– Live Test
4.15 Chep – Diamond Fort (12/1<) WON 11/2>7/1
NAME THE HORSE: POLL
The guys at White Diamond Racing received over 200 emails with name suggestions, both from you good folk and their other promotional activity on twitter. The one with the most votes below, combined with their twitter poll, will be the name chosen. And if you suggested that name, you will win the main prize. Have a vote on your favourite… (poll closes at 6pm) (a blog post on the opp to consider a share will be posted soon)
I think that is all for today.