A first foray onto ‘The Flat’ with a look at the first Heritage Handicap of the season…
(NOTE: as with all stats research on these pages with big races etc, the stats refer to UK/Irish runs only and take no account of runs abroad. So, any runs in Meydan for example can be ignored – these stats are not applicable to runs there, but you can remove those to see if other stats fit etc)
The Lincoln 2017
Stats/Trends
20 years
19/20 Age 4-6
- 7+ : 1/75,13p
20/20 ran either 8-15 days ago OR 121-365 days ago
- 1-7 days: 0/25,5p
- 16-120 days: 0/96,11p
10years (10/208,40p)
10/10 Age 4-6 (7yo +, 0/50,8p)
10/10 carried 9-4 or less (9-5+, 0/46,8p)
10/10 had 0-2 Distance Wins (3+, 0/52,10p)
10/10 ran in a handicap LTO (non hncp.. 0/51,7p)
10/10 had placed at least once on last 4 starts (Had not… 0/42,7p)
9/10 ran 121-240 days ago
- 241+ : 0/18,0p
- 11-15: 1/13,3p
9/10 ran in a 3yo+ race LTO (Did not: 1/85,10p)
9/10 had won at least once on last 4 starts (Had Not: 1/95,16p)
8/10 Top 3 on first ever career start (2/106,14p were not)
7/10 Top 3 LTO
7/10 had 2-3 handicap wins (7/68,18p)
- 6+ handicap wins: 0/30,4p
7/10 had won at least once on last 3 starts
7/10 were 6/1 or shorter SP on their last start (7/71,16p)
Other Notes
20 years: those sent off 6/1 or shorter: 6/21 runners, 9p
20 years: Had run over 16f or further in career: 0/42,4p
10 years..
- Dropping in class from last run: 0/36,6p
- Group 2 or 3 was their highest class win: 0/47,8p
- Ran in Listed race LTO: 0/27,4p
Track LTO
- Newm (Rowley) 2/27
- Ascot: 2/23
- Donc: 0/17,1p
- Wolvs: 0/41, 6p
Trainers
- Haggas: 2/5,3p
- Fahey: 2/27,7p
**
6 Responses
Hi Josh,
Many thanks for these, just wondering whether the weight stats take into account jockeys claiming weight? For example, Third Time Lucky fits the stats profile pretty well apart from carrying 9-7, however the jockey claims 7lbs.
Jack
Hi Jack,
Always a good questions.. all the weight stats exclude jockey claims- so the weight they have on the race card ignoring the jockey.
Those are small enough samples mind, and the place stats not too bad- so if they are an EW price and you like them, I wouldn’t let one stat like that put you off. As ever, esp weight and OR stats, they are a guide, and class can often make them irrelevant, if say there is a future group horse lurking.
Josh
Last year’s Lincoln, won by Secret Brief. Last run prior to that, 44 days before. Or does Meydan not count as a racecourse?
Ah that is a very good spot Donald…
Yep i use HorseRaceBase for all research which takes no account of form outside of UK/Ireland… so ignore relevant parts of any such profiles/runs abroad etc.
Those stats just based on any UK/Irish form/runs etc.
Yeah sadly given the HRB data its almost not worth looking at the days since last run data for the first couple of months of the flat season given its totally inaccurate which cross referencing it with other information since a fair number of those running tomorrow will have ran in Meydan. I tend to forget about that myself when tipping if I am completely honest.
3 Horses have won out of the last 9 years after racing in the winter at Meydan.
1 from 20 claiming jockeys [3lb] have won in the last 20 years.
Tony Mc.