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Festival Review: I plan to record some short videos (well I say short, you know me by now) looking back at Days 1+2 and 3+4, what went well, what I can improve on for next year/generally and anything else of interest.
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TIPS
none.
MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES
Trainer/jockey combo– Live Test
3.50 Taunt – Mr Kit Cat (12/1< guide)
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Nothing else today that I could find. Below I have repeated my ‘bet of the day’ test from the Members Post…
Bet of The Day: Test… (2/9,2p = +11 points)
I will revive my Bet of The Day Test , now that the Festival is over. I will have a look through those above and see if anything jumps out at me….
4.10 Southwell- Early Retirement – 1 point win – 6/1 (WH/BV) 11/2 (general) WON 4/1 (after R4s)
No ratings pointers today, so no bets for any systematic ‘RP 10/1+’ followers but on what looks a quiet day for me personally I do want to have a go at this Bailey runner, who looks the most likely winner from her two- famous last words. This is only his 3rd handicap hurdle start and he will improve at some point. Two starts ago he ran very well on handicap debut, coming second at 20/1. The horse behind him has since won and although a weak race, as this is, at least some substance there. The winner since placed again also. Next time he tried Towcester in heavy ground, tiring from about three out having been up there most of the way. I suspect those conditions stretched him a tad. An easier track here and better ground should help. They are due some rain which makes the card tricky as it could turn this soft- which would be fine for him. Sean Bowen rides- and that looks to be a developing relationship given they are now 2/4,2p in handicaps. Maybe he is available more than Harry Skelton- in any case they are two jockeys she likes to call on. So, the fact he is on is a positive. The trainer is also in great form still- 3/8,4p in the last 14 days. Finally – pace- Bowen can be aggressive which I like and there is a chance he tried to make all or in any case should be up there in the first few- which is where you want to be around here I think – very hard to come from the back unless they go far too hard.
So, I think 6/1, 11/2 looks decent in this poor race where most have some sort of question. I would hope that he is backed but we shall see.
10 Responses
Been away for few days(cheltenham fatigue after Presenting Percy),glad to see you had the spud up,it was my biggest bet of the season and wasnt going to be deterred from backing it no matter,all the stars alligned perfectly ground and a feather weight,though only got 16,i waited to make sure going was truly soft,but then i gave it a fair good wallop,putting 80 points in the bank,had been following and waiting for this one since nearly start of the season when it ran such a good 2nd,was entered and withdrawn good few times and then ran a “bad one”,welll worth the wait
my ew value of the day if 8 stay in is in 2-40S Milgen Bay after 2 poor runs has got the going it likes, dropped in class and back over optimum distance, 5/24 in c4 over this distance.
others of interest,
3-10 Banjo Girl
4-40 Rosemary Russet, LDT 238 miles,word is Harry Fry likes it’s chances
well it was lucky for me that there was 2 n/r in the 2-40 so only had a tiny bet on, other 2 2nd @13-2, 1st @ 9-1 (prices taken first thing) for a fair profit on the day.
I like, albeit, each way, Silent Warrior in the 4.10, at 14/1. Nothing else much at present. Has the capability to go well in a poor race I would hope, at the price.
A completely left field one to start….
Fleur Du Weld 2.50 Taunton Gail Heywood has had a couple of big priced hurdlers go in out of the blue in last 2-3 years. Been waiting for another one to come up. There’s no way that (even if Fleur does have some ability) she is going to finish in front of the big three here (unless they all fall or take wrong course). But the first time TT + any potential improvement from experience could put her into the first 4. 1000 for the win is right……but if 20+ is available for first 4 near the off it may be worth a small bet (hence effectively giving 20+ to finish first of 6 – who might all need a bit more time). Only around 12 at present so needs to move a bit the way required.
Elsewhere at biggish odds both Royal Rettie 3.00 (33-1 I think, haven’t looked for a few hours) and Waneen 5.30 (similar) would both have chances at their absolute best.
Rettie done nothing in 2 runs since switching stables but earlier form appears to suggest may be suited to coming out at the back from the wide draw at Kempton and finishing well late on. Sometimes switchers take a few to get acclimatised to a new stable? Of course Rettie may go online this afternoon, read this post, and say something like ‘ you’re deluded, mate. I’m going to run like a dog just the same as in the last 2. But if you can get over 70 on BF feel free!’
Waneen perhaps more promising. Moved to John Butler earlier in the year and has had 4 runs with the second looking reasonable (at least to show the ability is still there). The key here is that according to Gold Butler has a reasonable record with new inmates, so the theory I’m subscribing to is the ‘I need a few runs to get used to the yard’ one. Not a great draw though so minimum stakes providing at least 40-50 is on offer.
In the 4.10 agree with Martin on Silent Warrior, but Scartare (fits the ‘never leave a Trans Island alone in a two and a half hurdle’ profile + all of Sauvignon, Quigley Court, French 75 and Uncle Percy would all look to be capable of showing much better than so far). They’re all probably worth keeping an eye on whatever happens here.
Couldn’t have a 7-2 favourite in this with so many potential improvers (or in fact ever!) but GL Josh (and anyone that’s backed Early R).
Don’t think Back By Midnight deserves to be the near outsider in the 3.20. Some interpretation of form suggests the forecast good ground may suit better that some previous runs on softer.
LOL Rettie Just over half a furlong out it looked like we might be on a 220 winner! Great fun. Lots of shouting, the cat has run out!
Well done Josh. They all count!
And might have bypassed a few..but another indicator for Dragon Pulse offspring with Hisar running a great race at Kempton at 20-1.
Every little helps, around 4/1 after R4s i think. Yep well done with that one, you are getting closer!
Bit late but always worth watching out for Giles Bravery runners in bumpers. This looks a weakish mares race and Potters A is sitting at around 30 on BF. Witham and the No No Midnight Legend look likely to go well.
It’s not always about getting the winner and I’d say the Bravery bumper runner was good value for first 3 at 8.6. Been a good day. Keep an eye in future for 2nd run Bravery in a bumper. They invariably go well and he’s landed a couple of biggies with that ‘profile’.
Waneen is sitting at about 120 for the 5.30 right now. Of course you could name 10 and still not be on the winner in this but at 120 it’s worth a minimum. 15 for a first 4 is looking reasonable too.