DAILY POST: 19/03/17 (complete)

complete…

Good old Chase The Spud! What a dour stayer who received a brilliant patient ride that won it I suspect. One main effort right when it counted. Spooky was poor, maybe that ground too tiring for him as he travelled into it well enough at one stage. He didn’t see it out anyway. Great run from Mysteree who shrugged off his efforts LTO, but they probably told just at the end. Still, I wasn’t complaining! Back in the groove. It had been a while.

+19 points on the day, +63 points on the week, for the tips.

Let’s try and finish with a flourish..

 

TIPS

3.55 Carlisle – Milborough – 1 point win- 8/1 (PP) 15/2, 7/1 (general)

MEETING ABANDONED 

I may add some more detail at a later stage but in short I thought he looked over priced here a tad… he loves the track and rarely runs a bad race here and this is much calmer waters that the Eider, where he was never in a rhythm and made the odd error, one early on. They reach for the headgear here for the first time which I found interesting. Jamie Moore is booked and he has placed on him – another tick I think. And he is a dour stayer. This could be a slog and he will be flying late, in a race where i thought a few may cut each other’s throats up top. He can just sit behind and he usually responds well for pressure and really does enjoy climbing up this hill. You could make excuses for his last two runs I think and in any case plenty of reasons to think he may run better today- the track/headgear being two. He is 2/2 in all handicaps, 1/1 chasing, when OR 130 or below.

I just thought he could easily be 9/2 in this field and was happy to have a dart…

 

 

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MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLE

 

Trainer/Jockey Combo – Live Test

3.55 Carl- Cloudy Too (12/1<)

3.35 FL – Zarzal (12/1<)

4.10 FL- Lava Lamp (12/1<)

 

**

PLEASE NOTE: I will make an announcement on plans for the Flat season/post April, and moving forward more generally, in the next couple of days. Many of you may just be here for the jumps etc, but you may be interested over the summer months. And if not I hopefully see you back next October time, or for next year’s Festival.

 

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

16 Responses

  1. Hi Josh

    I should have asked this on my comment in the members section, sorry. Do you have any results based strategies for the best use of the tips in the free posts please? After your recent results round up I’m happy with the approach you suggest for the TTP Jumps qualifiers but I’m not 100% on the free tips. Back all regardless of price or just take them if I can get on 11+?

    Thanks for a cracking week.

    1. Hi Jamie, you can comment where you please, all welcome!

      In terms of the tips – they are completely separate from the TTP stats/daily jumps notes etc.

      I need to update my tipping spreadsheet- but you just follow the advice if you wish to and get the best price you can, as advised. You are of course free to do as you please – some for example backed Chase The Spud EW yesterday – personal preference. The price I tip at is a price that I think offers ‘value’ on my interpretation/feel of that that is!

      of course you need to judge value for yourself, were you late to the blog and let’s say today’s tip was 7/2 when you looked, backed from 8s, probably best not to bother at that point.

      I try and record results best I can to a price that is generally available and for quite a while after posting. I don’t do fancy staking strategies, everything has to work to level stakes etc, that is the true judgement whether an approach works.

      Hope that may help. The tips don’t require much thinking if you decide to follow them. This has been one of those weeks- it will not be repeated for a time, and the racing Gods will now give me a good slapping 🙂

  2. Bob Ford 4.45 Ffos irst time headger He is much below winning and it is Rebecca home 15/2 promising last race

  3. Hey guys should have posted this system earlier because it’s been on fire this month .but I wasn’t sure how well it would go.my march amigos .national hunt .2014-2017. March .odds forecast .3-21.bailey,dalgliesh,Ian Williams.45%win strike for 12 points.think I’m close to 35 points with best odds and early bets.hope there’s still some juice left in it .

    1. Sorry what is it exactly? You have named 3 trainers but I did not understand the other part. Thanks

      1. I think Jamie is saying back anything during March from the 3 named that falls somewhere between SP forecast 2-1 and 20-1…with the suggestion that some are backed through the day so you can improve returns by going in early.

    2. Yes that is correct a very basic system that’s paid dividends.i use forecast odds instead of SP odds on horse race base .so I don’t spend all day watching odds .

      1. Living about 5 miles from Carlisle racecourse (as the crow flies) its done nothing but rain overnight, swimming pools of water everywhere, still raining now mid-morning so NO chance the meeting could go ahead……just surprised South Wales is not suffering the same fate

  4. Terrific pick with Chase The Spud yesterday Josh…I got 20/1…it saved my bacon again. lol.
    You done a fantastic stint over the week Josh, so try and have a lay back…..watch the match with a nice drink of your choice and relax…no chance.
    Seriously son, don’t over do it.
    Carlisle off…dodgy ground all round. maybe time to just watch.

    Well done and BOL.

    Tony Mc.

    1. Cheers Tony, haha, I do find it worrying at times how these big 20/1 winners keep only saving your day!!! 🙂

      Oh don’t worry, there will be at least 3 beers during the match and I will be off to the pub with some friends. Should be a good game.

      Luckily I enjoy what I do, but will take it a tad easier over the next week, maybe even moving back my alarm from 7am to 8! What a luxury.

      Josh

  5. You wont pick winners laying in your bed. I am still tired from Cheltenham. Quite a few people took a hit on Friday with some of the results. I am looking forward to Aintree and then the flat in some sunshine (hopefully). My announcement for the flat is that I intend to find more winners util I run out of online accounts and have to start treading the pavements again around the betting shops to get on.

    1. Hi Martin,
      That is what i want to hear more winners,once again i would like to thank you for putting your info on this web site for all of us to read.
      Surprised you have open on line betting accounts still open,started closing me down about 4 years ago.
      Even walking the streets to place a bet is no good,they soon know your face and will not accept a bet,if you have a good win only accept cash has payment no cheques for they will check your name with their Data and stop accepting bets from you sooner rather than latter.

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