SAT Big Race Trends/Stats/Pointers

Eider Chase

Previous 10 renewals

158 runners/ 10 winners / 37 places horses

I have just picked out what caught my eye…

TRENDS

Days Since Run

• 6/10 ran 6-20 days ago
  • 6/33,8p…+43 SP

Horse Weight (exc claim)

• 10/10 carried 10-8 or more on back
  • 10-7 or less: 0/58,10p (Heavy going: 0/29,7p)
  • 11-8+ : 4/15,6p, +37 SP.. 0/4,1p last 4 years. (1/8 in heavy)
    • 11-6 + : 5/22,8p…

Horse Official Rating

• 8/10 OR 131-139
  • 8/32,13p.. +47 BFSP
  • OR 124 or below.. 0/67,15p

Maximum Distance Winners Had WON Over

• Previous winners over 3m5f or further: 1/45,7p

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OTHER STATS

Miscellaneous 1

Pos Wgts (ex Clm)

• 9/10 Top 5 win the weights
  • 9/57,19p… +57 SP (first losing year last year,0/5,1p such runners)
  • 6^th or lower: 1/101,18p (winner last year)

‘The ‘Running’ Characteristics’

H- RUN (Hncp NH Race Type)

• 10/10 had 11 or fewer handicap chase runs
  • 12+ : 0/52,6p (0/22,3p last 3 years)

H- Run (Track-NH Code)

• 9/10 yet to run here over fences
  • Had done so: 1/72, 11p

The ‘Winning’ Characteristics

H-Win (NH Race Type)

• 0 chase wins: 0/11,2p
• 5+ chase wins: 0/28,1p

H-Win (Hncp/Non)

• 5+ handicap wins: 0/31,3p

H-Win (Hcap NH)

• 5+ handicap chase wins: 0/14,0p

Miscellaneous 2

H-Places (NH Race type)

• 10/10 had 3-7 places in chases (inc wins)
  • 0-2: 0/18,3p
  • 8+ : 0/43,3p

Trainers (of interest)

• 1 win: N Williams/D Bridgewater/D Pipe/R Dobbin/A Parker/M Phelan/I Duncan/V Williams
• Mrs Sue Smith: 0/11,0p
• NTD: 0/4,3p

**

Kempton : BetBright Chase…

Some 10 year stats that caught my eye

• 10/10 had won over 2m5f+ previously 
• 10/10 had 9 or fewer handicap chase runs
• 10/10 Top 3 on at least one of last three starts

• 0-1 run this season: 0/18,1p
• 9/10 , 12/1 or shorter SP. 
• Bottom Weights: 0/15,3p (inc joints)
• 0 run in the last 90 days: 0/12,1p
• 9/10 -10 or fewer handicap runs (1/52,7p had 11+)
• 8/10 – 11 or fewer chase runs
• Chase Wins..
  • 0-1: 0/19,2p
  • 4+ : 0/15,1p
• Had claiming jockey on: 0/24,3p
• 0-2 places in handicap chases (inc wins) 0/14,2p
• 0 places in handicap chases: 0/13,0p
  • 7+ places in handicap chases: 0/20,1p
• Ran in a non handicap LTO: 4/24,7p, +27 SP
• 6/10 ran at Kempton/Chelt/Sand LTO
  • Ascot LTO: 0/19,3p
• Trainers…
  • T George: 2/9,5p
  • Nicholls: 2/22
  • N Henderson: 0/8,0p
  • V Williams: 0/9,0p
  • D Pipe: 0/10,0p

***

That will be all.